NEW YORK — Two Yankees pitchers took the ball against the same team on back-to-back days this week. Both won. Both struck out eight. Yet only one walked away having answered the question that now hangs over the Bronx.
One is a $324 million former Cy Young winner with an October resume few Yankees can match. The other is a $162 million lefty who, a week ago, was being projected off the playoff roster.
The gap between reputation and recent results has rarely felt this wide, and the Yankees can no longer avoid choosing.
The decision is not about talent. It is about trust, and about a Boston lineup that has a history with one of these arms.
With the AL East clinched by Tampa Bay and a best-of-three Wild Card Series locked in at Yankee Stadium starting Tuesday, the Yankees must decide whether to hand a pivotal start to Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon. Cam Schlittler and Max Fried are set. The third arm, likely facing the Red Sox, is the call that could define October, and Rodon’s late surge has made what once looked automatic anything but.
Rodon peaks at the perfect time
Carlos Rodon made the loudest statement. In Tuesday’s doubleheader opener, he threw eight scoreless innings against the Rays, allowing three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts. He reached his 1,500th career strikeout and his 100th career win in the same game and denied the Rays a clinch that day.
It was no fluke. Rodon has not allowed more than three runs in 26 straight starts. Since returning from the injured list in August, he owns a 1.89 ERA with three straight quality starts, and carries a 2.67 ERA over 16 outings in a season twice interrupted by elbow trouble.
His matchup profile fits, too. Rodon posted a 1.86 ERA in two starts against Boston this season, the same club the Yankees are likely to see. Manager Aaron Boone praised the left-hander’s stuff after Tuesday’s gem.
“His stuff is really good, especially today with the heater and the profile of that fastball,” Boone said. “I think in a lot of ways his fastball is in a better place than it was last year, which was a great season for him.”
Cole answers with a steadier finale
Cole did not go quietly. In the Yankees’ 9-2 win over the Rays on Wednesday, the day after Tampa Bay clinched, he worked 5 2/3 innings, allowed two runs on three hits and struck out eight to earn his 10th win of the season.
The eight strikeouts mattered most. Cole’s swing and miss had vanished during a brutal stretch, and Wednesday offered a flicker of the old bite. He ended the regular season at 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA and 131 strikeouts over 22 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery in May.
The outing was not flawless. Cole issued three walks and ran a high pitch count, and the home run that has haunted him still surfaced during the month. But it steadied a narrative that had spiraled. Boone had already signaled his lean before the finale.
“I would expect Gerrit Cole to start, yes,” Boone said when asked whether Cole would pitch in a wild-card series.
The Boston problem that tilts the call
Here is the factor that should weigh heaviest, and one Cole cannot outrun. The Yankees will almost certainly open against the Red Sox, and few teams have solved Cole like Boston has.
Since joining the Yankees in 2020, Gerrit Cole owns a 5.93 ERA against the Red Sox in the regular season. His postseason history against them is worse. He allowed seven runs in eight innings across two October appearances, including a three-run, two-inning wild-card loss at Fenway Park in 2021.
Cole’s numbers against Tampa Bay tell the opposite story. His ERA against the Rays is nearly two full runs lower than his mark against Boston, which frames a clear Yankees strategy. Use Rodon against the Red Sox, and hold Cole for a possible division series against the Rays if New York advances.
The stat that sharpens the debate
The recent trend lines make the contrast starker still. Across his last four starts before the finale, Cole allowed 14 earned runs over 22 2/3 innings, a 5.56 clip, while walking just one batter. His command held, but hitters kept squaring him up.
Rodon, over roughly the same window, was among the five best starters in baseball with a 1.86 ERA since late June. One pitcher is limiting damage through guile. The other is missing bats and stranding runners. In a win-or-go-home series, that difference is the whole argument.
There is a workload wrinkle as well. Schlittler can pitch Game 1 on regular rest, with Cole lined up on five days and Fried and Rodon available on extra rest. The math gives Boone freedom to slot Rodon wherever he trusts him most.
A call that lands within days
Boone has leaned on reputation and October pedigree, and few managers would bench a pitcher of Cole’s stature on a cold month. His track record in high-leverage games is real, and his finale bought him goodwill.
Yet the case for Rodon is built on the present. He is healthier, sharper and better suited to the opponent waiting in the first round. After Tuesday’s win, Boone said only that the Yankees would skip Rodon on Sunday and sort out the rest later.
The Wild Card Series begins Tuesday in the Bronx. The Yankees have two capable arms for one defining start, and days to decide whether the safer bet is the name or the numbers.
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