NEW YORK — The yankees are without Aaron Judge since Sept. 16 and the latest update only keeps the recovery picture blurred.
Their doubleheader that began with an October-caliber pitching performance ended with the Yankees watching the Rays celebrate the AL East title on their field.
Carlos Rodon worked eight scoreless innings Tuesday as Cody Bellinger’s two-run homer carried New York past Tampa Bay 2-0 in the opener at Yankee Stadium. Tampa Bay won the nightcap 6-1 to clinch the division and the AL’s No. 1 seed.
The Yankees nevertheless secured the top AL wild-card berth. At 91-67, they will host the Wild Card Series starting Sept. 29. Boston currently holds the next wild-card position, putting another Yankees-Red Sox meeting on the schedule if the standings remain unchanged.
Captain Judge could do little from the dugout. The Yankees captain played just 66 games before another injury removed him from the lineup. His absence has shifted the burden to hitters who were supposed to complement him.
Judge returned Sept. 8 after a fractured rib sidelined him for more than three months. He went 4-for-23 with one homer in seven games before experiencing tightness in his right leg during the first inning against Minnesota on Sept. 16. He departed in the sixth.
The Yankees placed Judge on the injured list Saturday, retroactive to Sept. 17. He cannot return until Sept. 27, the final day of the regular season. That leaves almost no time to test his readiness.
A recovery window that extends past the first round
Aaron Boone’s latest description makes that question larger than the Wild Card Series. Before Tuesday’s doubleheader, the Yankees manager said he had been told Judge’s right calf injury was a moderate strain. Judge received a platelet-poor plasma injection Monday.
Boone did not announce a specific numerical grade. However, moderate calf strains generally fall in the second-degree category. A published rehabilitation guide from the Boston Sports Medicine & Research Institute describes those injuries as partial muscle tears that typically require three to six weeks of recovery before a return to full activity.
That guidance is not an individualized Yankees prognosis. But even the shorter end extends past the entire Sept. 29 to Oct. 1 Wild Card Series. The longer end would reach Oct. 28, after a potential seven-game ALCS and into the World Series.
Boone leaves a narrow postseason opening
The Yankees are preparing their initial playoff roster without Judge, although Boone has declined to close the door completely. Asked about the opening round Tuesday, the manager allowed for a late change if the slugger makes sufficient progress.
“I’m not expecting it, but I’m not ruling it out either,” Boone said.
That distinction matters for the Yankees’ planning. A player can become eligible to leave the injured list without being cleared to sprint, field and swing at postseason intensity. New York also must weigh whether carrying an unavailable hitter through a short series is practical.
For Ramos, the immediate challenge extends beyond replacing a spot in the batting order. The outfielder described what Judge means to the Yankees clubhouse.
“That’s our guy. He’s the president of this team,” Ramos said.
One injury date, three postseason deadlines
The calendar exposes the larger risk. Judge first felt the calf problem Sept. 16. Three weeks from that date is Oct. 7, when MLB has scheduled Game 3 of the AL Division Series. Five weeks would fall Oct. 21, one day after a possible ALCS Game 7.
The ALDS starts Oct. 3 and could last through Oct. 10. The ALCS opens Oct. 12 and could continue through Oct. 20. Even a return during either round would require the Yankees to remain alive long enough to use him.
There is another important distinction in the same medical guide. Its general rehabilitation program for second- and third-degree calf injuries does not introduce its full-speed running progression until a later phase. That makes Judge’s ability to run the bases and handle right field separate checkpoints from simply feeling comfortable at the plate.
New York must build a lineup without a fixed return date
Through Tuesday, the Yankees were 49-42 in 91 games without Judge and 41-25 in the 66 games he played. Those records include Tuesday’s split with Tampa Bay. They show New York can win without its captain, not how its lineup will fare against playoff pitching.
Judge’s own numbers underscore the disruption. He is hitting .241 with 18 homers and 41 RBIs, well below the volume expected from a full season. His seven-game return after the rib injury produced just four hits and 13 strikeouts in 23 at-bats.
Bellinger and Ben Rice remain prominent run-producing options. A healthy return by Jazz Chisholm Jr. adds another bat, while the Yankees must settle outfield roles involving Ramos, Jones and Trent Grisham, who has dealt with a hamstring problem. Those decisions become more difficult if Judge is available only as a hitter.
No Yankees return date has been announced. With the division decided and the top wild-card spot secured, New York’s immediate task is to finalize a lineup for Sept. 29 while the medical staff determines whether Judge’s recovery can intersect with any part of October.
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