NEW YORK — The numbers say the Toronto Blue Jays should win the AL East. The projections favor the defending American League pennant winners. But numbers do not always tell the whole story.
FanGraphs has the Yankees projected for 87 wins this season. Toronto sits at 90. The Red Sox match the Blue Jays at 90. Baltimore checks in at 88. New York ranks fourth in its own division.
That gap could disappear quickly. Three Yankees bats appear undervalued by the projection systems. If they perform closer to their ceilings than their floors, the Bombers could overtake their northern rivals.
Projection systems favor Toronto in tight AL East race
The Blue Jays spent big this winter. Toronto added Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto while extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for half a billion dollars. FanGraphs shows the Blue Jays and Dodgers as the only teams ahead of the Yankees in projected roster WAR.
FanGraphs gives the Yankees a 30% chance to win the division and 68% odds to make the playoffs. Those numbers rank lowest among projected division winners in all of MLB. No other division has four teams within 12 percentage points of each other.
“However, perhaps the Bombers should rank even higher,” writes MLB.com’s Brian Murphy. “If you look at the position-by-position projections, you will see a few spots where the Yankees’ projected WAR seems a little off. Projection systems produce generally conservative outputs, but even taking that into account, there are three certain players/positions that appear to be especially underappreciated.”
General manager Brian Cashman remains confident despite the forecasts.
“I’ve been openly willing to challenge anybody that we don’t have a championship caliber roster [and] team,” Cashman said. “And it’s our job to try to make it better along the way.”
Ben Rice looks poised to break out at first base
The projections give Ben Rice a 1.9 WAR at first base. His projected overall WAR sits at 2.5. Those numbers seem conservative given what he showed in 2025.
Rice smashed 26 home runs last season with a 133 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR in 138 games. He slashed .255/.337/.499 while splitting time between first base, designated hitter and catcher. His underlying numbers tell an even better story.
The 26-year-old ranked in the 90th percentile or better in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He also ranked in the 60th percentile or better in strikeout rate. Only 12 players since 2015 have achieved that combination. Every other player on that list has made multiple All-Star teams. Several have won MVP awards. One is already in the Hall of Fame.
Rice hit just .255 but posted an expected batting average of .283. His slugging percentage of .499 fell well below his .557 expected slugging. A player who hits the ball that hard does not stay unlucky forever.
The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium fits his pull-heavy swing perfectly. Rice had a 25.2% pulled airball rate last season. He hit 20 of his 26 home runs to his pull side.
Ryan McMahon brings elite defense and untapped power potential
FanGraphs projects the Yankees to get 2.3 WAR from third base. That ranks tied for 20th in MLB. Ryan McMahon alone could exceed that number.
The former Rockie was a Gold Glove finalist in 2024 despite spending the final third of his season outside the National League. His defense never skipped a beat after the trade to New York. McMahon recorded nine Defensive Runs Saved in 2025 with six coming from his 39 games with the Yankees.
The bat remains a question mark. McMahon struck out at a 32.3% rate last season with a 35.2% whiff rate. Both numbers ranked worst among qualified MLB hitters. His wRC+ has declined from 90 to 88 to 86 over the past three seasons.
But the raw power exists. McMahon posted a career-high 50.5% hard-hit rate in 2025. His 12.1% barrel rate also set a personal best. Both marks ranked above the 75th percentile in MLB.
McMahon hit 2.5 WAR in 2021 and 3.1 WAR in 2022 with Colorado. His career-high 17.0% pulled airball rate last season suggests he is learning to use the short porch. A full season at Yankee Stadium could unlock production the projections do not see coming.
Cody Bellinger thrives in hitter-friendly Bronx ballpark
The projections give Cody Bellinger a 2.0 WAR in left field and 3.3 overall. That represents a split between his pedestrian 2024 campaign with the Cubs and his strong 2025 showing with the Yankees.
Bellinger batted .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI in his first season in pinstripes. His 125 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR marked the second-best numbers of his career. He also posted a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate.
The home-road splits reveal why the reunion makes so much sense. Bellinger hit .302 with a .909 OPS through 80 games at Yankee Stadium. He slugged 18 homers at home in just 80 games. That matched his entire 130-game total from 2024 with Chicago.
His defense added elite value. Bellinger finished with 12 Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average in the outfield. Both marks ranked near the top among all left fielders in MLB.
Bellinger also crushed left-handed pitching with a 1.016 OPS against southpaws. That production helps balance a Yankees lineup heavy on left-handed bats.
Yankees can close the gap on division rivals
The Blue Jays reached Game 7 of the World Series last October before falling to the Dodgers. Toronto and New York tied at 94 wins in 2025. The Red Sox finished at 89. This division race will be tight again.
Projection systems tend to be conservative. They factor in regression and injury risk. They weight the bad seasons alongside the good ones.
Rice could easily repeat his 3.0-WAR campaign if he plays every day at first. McMahon needs only modest improvement in his strikeout rate to become a three-win player again. Bellinger has every reason to maintain his production in a ballpark that perfectly suits his swing.
Add those improvements to Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup. The gap between 87 projected wins and 94 actual wins suddenly looks very bridgeable.
Spring Training brings first test for undervalued trio
Yankees pitchers and catchers report in two weeks. Position players follow shortly after. The competition for the AL East title begins in earnest.
The Blue Jays may have the better projection. The Yankees may have the better upside. Three bats in the Bronx lineup could prove the difference.
Rice hits the ball as hard as anyone in MLB. McMahon plays gold-caliber defense at a premium position. Bellinger turns into a monster at Yankee Stadium.
The projections do not always get it right. These three Yankees could prove that point in 2026.
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