NEW YORK — The Toronto Blue Jays made the biggest splash of the offseason so far. They handed Dylan Cease a seven-year, $210 million contract on November 25. It was the largest free agent deal in franchise history.
The New York Yankees watched it happen. They did not pick up the phone. And that might have been the smartest move they made all winter.
Cease was supposed to be the crown jewel of the pitching market. He came off a 2024 season that earned him fourth place in NL Cy Young voting. He threw a no-hitter against the Nationals in July of that year. Teams lined up to chase him.
Then 2025 happened.
The numbers tell a troubling story
Cease finished the 2025 season with an 8-12 record. His ERA ballooned to 4.55, more than a full run higher than his 3.47 mark in 2024. He threw just 168 innings across 32 starts for the San Diego Padres.
The strikeouts remained elite. Cease led all of baseball with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He punched out 215 batters and posted a 29.8 percent strikeout rate. Those numbers kept him in the top tier of pitchers who miss bats.
But that was not enough to mask the problems.
His walk rate jumped 1.3 percent from 2024 to 2025. He led the league in walks back in 2022 with 78. He also topped the majors in wild pitches in both 2021 and 2023, recording 14 in each season. Command has always been his weakness. The Yankees front office knew this.
ESPN analysts David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle graded the Blue Jays signing a B. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a $210 million investment.
“In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense for him to sign early while the money is there,” Doolittle and Schoenfield wrote. “He’s a pitcher with clear skills and ability but also frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a wide variance in how teams evaluated him.”
Why the Yankees stayed away
The Yankees already have three big-money aces on the books. Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon combine for massive payroll commitments. Adding a fourth nine-figure deal to a pitcher turning 30 in late December made little sense.
Cole missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will not be ready for Opening Day 2026 but should return within the first two months. Clarke Schmidt underwent the same procedure in July and will miss most of next season.
Rodon had surgery to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur in his elbow. He will be delayed a few weeks into the 2026 season. The Yankees are not short on starting pitching once everyone gets healthy.
Fried delivered exactly what the team needed in his first year in pinstripes. He went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA across 195.1 innings. He earned first-team All-MLB honors. He gave the Yankees a true ace when Cole went down.
The emergence of Cam Schlittler changed everything too. The rookie right-hander posted a 2.96 ERA over 73 innings in the regular season. He dominated in October with a 1.26 ERA across 14.1 postseason innings.
The rotation picture looks promising without Cease
Picture this group at full strength: Cole, Fried, Rodon, Schlittler, Luis Gil and Will Warren. That is six legitimate starting options before the Yankees even factor in Schmidt returning late in the year.
Gil posted a 3.32 ERA in 2025. Warren finished at 4.44. Both Yankees pitchers will get opportunities to prove themselves worthy of rotation spots while the veterans recover.
The Yankees also brought back Ryan Yarbrough on a one-year deal. The left-hander provides flexibility as either a bulk innings guy or a spot starter depending on how the first few months unfold.
Depth has often been the Yankees’ weakness. Suddenly, the Yankees have more quality arms than rotation spots. That is a problem most teams would love to have.
Toronto took the risk the Yankees avoided
The Blue Jays bet big on Cease bouncing back. They are to pair him with Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Jose Berrios and top prospect Trey Yesavage. On paper, it could be one of the best rotations in baseball.
But there are red flags. Bieber is coming off elbow issues. Berrios dealt with late-season inflammation. Cease has never thrown more than 189 innings in a single season. His heavy slider usage invites future arm problems. The Yankees saw this coming.
The contract runs through age 36. That is a long time for a pitcher with command concerns and a history of inconsistency.
“At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter,” the ESPN analysts wrote. “The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace.”
Sometimes. That is the key word. The Yankees needed certainty, not volatility. The Bronx Bombers made the right call.
The dollars saved could go elsewhere
By passing on Cease, the Yankees kept their powder dry. They remain in the hunt for Cody Bellinger. They have touched base with Kyle Tucker’s representatives. Both outfielders would fill bigger holes on the roster than another starting pitcher.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner wants payroll flexibility. General manager Brian Cashman needs options. Locking up $30 million per year in Cease would have limited both.
The Yankees learned from watching the Blue Jays. Sometimes the best move is the one you do not make. In hindsight, letting Cease walk north of the border looks like a quiet win for the Bronx.
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