MLB insider wants Yankees to tie Harrison Bader to a longer contract

The Yankees had to pay a heavy price for failing to tie Aaron Judge to a long-term contract. They should learn from it and make Harrison Bader agree to a longer deal. Ben Clemens of Fangraphs says Bader is in a situation where it is logical for the Yankees to consider an extended term for him, at least a contract for more than two years.

According to him:

” Maybe the Yankees view Bader as more of a one-year stopgap. I don’t think that’s the case, though. He’s too good of a roster fit. He’s too good of a player. Heck, he’s too good of a marketing coup; “the Bronxville Bomber” is a dynamite nickname, and his outfield shimmies are a delightful signature. He’s in the exact financial circumstance where an extension that trades upside for security makes sense. The whole thing is too logical not to happen.”

Last year, at the trade deadline, the Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader. Initially, his injury and Montgomery’s in-form innings led to fans criticizing his trade. However, Bader’s playoff performance silenced everyone. Now, the Yankees should stop thinking of Bader as a two-year commitment and consider keeping him longer.

Harrison Bader makes the Yankees’ outfield defense much better than average. One thing about Aaron Judge‘s performance in 2022 that wasn’t given enough credit was that he played great defense in center field. On the other hand, he had the best offensive season since Barry Bonds. When a player is able to lead the offense in a big way, the team should consider lowering his defensive duty and focus on the bat.

When the Yankees didn’t have any other good choices for the center, it was fine to put Judge out there every day. But with Harrison Bader. by his side, Judge can go back to being a great corner outfielder. Good defense in the center position is cool, but Harrison Bader is well ahead of that. He is always in the running for a Gold Glove, and that might not say enough about how good he is.

Statcast says that Bader is the fourth-best center fielder in the game, 46 runs better than average, after Lorenzo Cain, Byron Buxton, and Kevin Kiermaier. DRS thinks Harrison Bader is fifth best but UZR puts him on the top.

This kind of defense is important. Take the case of Kiermaier. He is a league-average hitter, but the Rays, who are known for being cheap, paid him the most for years, and he averaged more than 4 WAR per 600 plate appearances during his time there. A player with 4 WAR is close to being an All-Star. It’s not easy to get to 600 plate appearances, but Kiermaier did that with an overall production close to All-Star level.

Harrison Bader and Kiermaier are both in the same league, which is very convenient (97). Bader is four years younger than Kiermaier, which is why his 2023 projections are better. Harrison Bader is a right-handed version of Kiermaier at his best. The player is really good, and he could be even better. He had a bad year at the plate in 2022, mostly because he lost all of his power, but he has all the right parts to be a good hitter. He used to hit for power, and he’s cut down on strikeouts a lot in the last two years. However, Harrison Bader was hurt a lot in 2022, so it’s not surprising that he was inconsistent. If you add up his stats from the regular season and the playoffs, he still had a 102 wRC+, and his five home runs in October were the same number he hit all year before that.

By retaining Harrison Bader for a long time, the Yankees may run the risk of him getting hurt. He has averaged about 400 plate appearances per year, but it’s not all because of bad health. When he was with the Cardinals, Harrison Bader was more of a rotation outfielder. He was their fourth outfielder for the first half of his rookie year in 2017 and spent a short time in the minors in 2018. Since then, he’s had some injuries, but nothing that changed Harrison Bader’s career.

“Part-time center fielder” is a skill that Judge has, which is good news for the Yankees. The team has utility man Oswaldo Cabrera and a lot of defensive depth to make up for Harrison Bader’s absence. Jasson Dominguez and Everson Pereira, aren’t ready for the majors yet and would both look better in a corner anyway. Cabrera is a natural infielder, so even if Pereira makes it to the big leagues right away, the team could switch things up and still use Harrison Bader’s great defense.

How much will Harrison Bader ask for?

Harrison Bader only has one year left on his contract. His salary for 2023 is already set because he signed a two-year extension with the Cardinals before the start of last season. The question is what the Yankees would have to give him after 2024 to keep him from leaving for a different team. Harrison Bader will be 30 in 2024, but since he was born on June 3, he is still young for that age. There aren’t many contracts that are like this one.

Harrison Bader might be able to get Chris Taylor’s four-year, $60 million deal. Taylor could have been hitting better but his defense was a level below Bader at the time of the contract signing. An older Jackie Bradley got $12 million a year in 2021. At the time, he had a career wRC+ of 93, and his offensive decline hadn’t happened yet. Kiermaier just signed a $9 million deal with the Blue Jays after finishing out the rest of his contract with the Rays. However, he is a lot older than the other players.

Four years and $50 million be enough for Harrison Bader. Defense is usually worth less in free agency than offense, especially for players who are getting close to 30. However, there aren’t many defenders like Harrison Bader.

ZiPS Projection – Harrison Bader

This is the stat line of a star player who is worried about getting hurt. Harrison Bader has never had more than 400 PA in a season, but when he’s healthy, he should be able to play at an All-Star level. His projection for 2023 is a pace of nearly 5 WAR per 600 PA. ZiPS would give him a four-year, $88 million contract extension.

ZiPS thinks that Harrison Bader’s defense won’t get much worse in the next few years. That’s partly because it hasn’t happened yet, and partly because his defensive skills are based on speed. Bader is fast, but what makes him stand out is his ability to react quickly and run routes. He is always one of the best center fielders in terms of how high he jumps.

Harrison Bader Bader is an average route runner, which is hard to do when you have to react so quickly that you might not have a good grip on the ball yet. If you can run a normal route and stop right away, your defensive range will be better than your speed. He also has a better-than-average arm, which helps him a lot on defense.

ZiPS thinks that Harrison Bader is like a unicorn there, but it wouldn’t be surprising if other systems didn’t agree. Bader extension would be good for the Yankees. Last year, the Yankees rushed to have Andrew Benintendi just before the closing of the trade window to fortify their weak outfield. If Cody Bellinger doesn’t make a big comeback this year, they won’t have many other options in the free-agent class of 2024.

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