NEW YORK — The New York Yankees want to believe their ace will return to form. History suggests they should prepare for something less. Gerrit Cole is progressing through his Tommy John rehab. He threw off a mound in early November and could face live hitters in spring training. But expecting him to reclaim his Cy Young status right away might be the kind of wishful thinking that leaves the Yankees short again.
Analysts are sounding the alarm. The message is simple: stop counting on everything going right.
The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner urged the Yankees to be aggressive on the pitching front this offseason. So far, they have been anything but.
“[Gerrit] Cole has one of the most brilliant minds in baseball, so it would be foolish to think he won’t figure out how to be successful in a post-surgery baseball life,” Kirschner wrote. “But the Yankees should not be banking on him returning to a Cy Young Award level.”
The Cole timeline and what it means for 2026
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Cole underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in March 2025. The procedure included an internal brace to fortify the repaired ligament, but it was still full Tommy John surgery. The standard recovery window runs 14 to 18 months.
Manager Aaron Boone has already ruled out an Opening Day return. The most optimistic projections put Cole back on a big league mound in May, roughly 14 months after surgery.
“I hope it comes back like a fresh, new set of tires,” Cole said in May. “That’s the best hope. Just a pit stop that took a little longer than we had hoped for.”
The 35-year-old is six years and $324 million into his nine-year contract. He posted a 2.17 ERA in the 2024 playoffs after returning from an elbow injury that limited him to 17 regular season starts. His stuff was electric. His command was sharp. Then his elbow gave out in spring training.
Recent history offers mixed signals on what to expect from pitchers returning from Tommy John. Jacob deGrom came back strong with a 2.97 ERA in 2025 for the Rangers. Sandy Alcantara struggled to a 5.36 ERA for the Marlins, though he improved late in the season. Every arm is different. Every recovery has its own path.
A rotation held together by duct tape and hope
The Yankees currently have three starters on the injured list. Cole is the biggest name. Carlos Rodon recently had surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow and will miss at least the first few weeks of the season. Clarke Schmidt remains a second-half target after his own surgery.
That leaves Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough as the realistic options for Opening Day. The Yankees are one spring training injury away from starting Paul Blackburn, a reliever pressed into rotation duty.
“The bullpen has concerns of its own, and the Yankees have already sat out the top and middle of the reliever market,” Kirschner noted.
In a sport where arms break down constantly, the Yankees appear content to roll the dice. Their division rivals are taking no such chances.
Schlittler emerges as a bright spot with a heavy burden
The Yankees do have one reason for optimism. Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene with a July call-up and pitched like a veteran. The 24-year-old right-hander posted a 2.96 ERA over 73 innings and struck out 84 batters in 14 starts.
Then he delivered one of the greatest postseason performances in franchise history.
In the winner-take-all Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against Boston, Schlittler threw eight scoreless innings. He struck out 12 Red Sox batters. He walked none. He allowed just five singles. He became the first pitcher ever to post at least 12 strikeouts, zero walks and eight scoreless innings in a postseason game.
“A star is born tonight,” Boone said after the game. “He’s a special kid, man, I’m telling you. It’s obviously amazing stuff, but he’s shown us this from the jump. He’s not afraid. He expects this.”
But Schlittler has just 14 major league starts under his belt. He is still Rookie of the Year eligible for 2026. The Yankees are asking him to shoulder an enormous load while Cole recovers and Rodon heals.
Trade targets exist if the Yankees want to act
Kirschner identified several realistic trade options for the Yankees. Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta would add a frontline arm to the mix. Washington’s MacKenzie Gore remains available. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara could provide innings if his elbow holds up.
Each would cost significant prospect capital. The Yankees have been reluctant to pay that price.
The Tatsuya Imai option has also faded. The Japanese starter’s posting deadline arrives Jan. 2. MLB insider Jack Curry reported there is “no connection” between Imai and the Yankees. Boone said the team has not met with him.
“Apparently, there actually aren’t many concrete options on the table yet,” Imai told Japanese media. “It seems that having teams show interest and receiving a formal offer are completely different things.”
The stakes could not be higher
The Yankees just completed their 16th consecutive season without a World Series title. They lost to the Blue Jays in the Division Series after winning 94 games. Aaron Judge is 33 and owed $360 million through 2031. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever.
Cole’s return could transform the rotation. A healthy starting five of Cole, Fried, Schlittler, Gil and Rodon would match up with any staff in baseball. But banking on perfect health in a sport that punishes pitching arms is a dangerous game.
The warning signs are flashing. Cole is coming back from major surgery. Rodon is recovering from his own procedure. The rotation depth is paper thin. Spring training is six weeks away.
The question for Brian Cashman and the Yankees front office is straightforward. Will they heed the warnings and act decisively, or will they gamble that everything breaks their way?
History suggests that hope is not a pitching strategy.
