NEW YORK — The Yankees enter the winter with a 17-season championship drought and one hole every rival scout has circled.
Third base.
Ryan McMahon finished the regular season hitting .213 with a .279 on-base percentage and a 78 wRC+. He is owed $16 million in 2027. Jose Caballero spent most of October on the bench. Amed Rosario is a free agent. Volpe played mostly second base.
The lineup had a second gap. Too often, the spots behind Judge, Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger went to a slumping Jazz Chisholm Jr. or rookies Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr. Chisholm is now a free agent.
The domestic market offers little relief. Alec Bohm, arguably the best free-agent third baseman, produced 0.2 fWAR in 2026. A trade for Houston’s Isaac Paredes would require the Astros to deal with an AL rival. Bo Bichette is unlikely to reach the market after a down season with the Mets.
That is why the biggest development of the young offseason came from Japan.
On Monday, the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball confirmed they will post Teruaki Sato, the Central League Triple Crown winner. The Yankees had scouts watching him during the NPB postseason last week. FanSided’s Christopher Kline has projected the Yankees to land Sato on a three-year, $75 million contract.
A clear need, an early look and a public forecast put the Yankees ahead of most clubs as the bidding takes shape.
A Triple Crown bat built for the Bronx
Sato, 27, hit .306 with 39 home runs, 106 RBIs and a .991 OPS. He is the ninth Triple Crown winner in NPB history and the second in Hanshin history, joining Randy Bass.
He won the 2025 Central League MVP with 40 homers and a .924 OPS. He has 163 home runs in six NPB seasons and has played at least 120 games in each.
He bats left-handed, a natural match for the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees will have company. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman linked the Mets, Dodgers and Phillies to Sato in September.
Judge raises the stakes
The pursuit follows a public challenge from the captain. After the Game 3 loss, Judge was asked how the front office would answer another early exit.
“We’re the Yankees. I feel like they should go all-in and do what they need to do,” Judge said.
Judge tied that demand to his decision to re-sign on a nine-year deal before the 2023 season.
“That’s why I signed back here to play with the Yankees, is to fight for a championship every single year and go all-in,” Judge said.
The New York Post later reported that some team officials were annoyed by the remarks. The Yankees carried a payroll of roughly $336 million in 2026, according to FanGraphs.
The real price tag and a Dec. 1 deadline
Munetaka Murakami signed for two years and $34 million with the Chicago White Sox last December. Sato’s projected average annual value would exceed Murakami’s, possibly at least $18-20 million.
Sato’s salary is only part of the bill. Hanshin collects a release fee under the MLB-NPB posting agreement: 20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of anything above $50 million.
On the projected 3-year, $54 million deal (on the lower side), that fee is $9.95 million. The total outlay would be about $55 million.
The collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, and a lockout is widely expected. Sato asked to be posted early so he could sign before any stoppage.
The posting period typically opens Nov. 1, with formal posting expected after the Japan Series. Clubs then get 45 days, but only about a month of that falls before Dec. 1.
The last lockout froze the clock. Seiya Suzuki was posted Nov. 22, 2021, saw his window paused and did not sign with the Cubs until March 18, 2022. The Yankees were among his suitors before the freeze.
A club with a defined need and early scouting can move inside that compressed window. That is the Yankees‘ clearest edge.
The questions that remain
Sato won a Golden Glove at third in 2025 but posted a .937 fielding percentage with 18 errors this year. Some clubs may follow the Murakami model and move him to first base, where the Yankees already have Rice.
He struck out 26.7% of the time in 2026, his lowest rate since 2023. Murakami struck out 35.4% of the time as a rookie but still hit 35 home runs with an .825 OPS.
Hanshin has approved the posting, but the 45-day window has not opened. No offer has been reported. The Yankees now wait for the clock to start.
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