NEW YORK — The last time the New York Yankees landed a star out of Japan, Masahiro Tanaka was 25 and the year was 2014. Twelve years later, the club is still trying to rebuild the road back.
The detours have piled up. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto went west to Los Angeles. Roki Sasaki followed. Korean prep right-hander Ha Hyun-seung reportedly turned down more than $3 million from the Yankees and signed with the Kiwoom Heroes on Oct. 7.
In June, the Yankees signed Taiwanese pitcher Chien-Fan Lai. He was their first Asian amateur signee in 12 years.
That history matters now because an 18-year-old in Yokohama just changed the market. On Thursday, he walked into a news conference at his high school with about 90 reporters from 40 outlets waiting.
His name is Shoki Oda. He told them he is skipping Japan’s professional draft to chase a career in the United States.
The arm every club wants
Oda is a 6-foot-1 right-hander from Kitakyushu who pitches for Yokohama High School, the same program that produced Daisuke Matsuzaka. He touched 97 mph at Summer Koshien in August, a tournament record, and has been clocked as high as 157 kph, about 97.6 mph.
The fastball is not the only weapon. Oda also throws a slider, curveball, changeup, splitter and cutter. His splitter has sat around 89 to 90 mph.
At Koshien, he struck out 12 over 8 2/3 innings in his first start and threw a 10-strikeout shutout in the quarterfinals. In September, he held Chinese Taipei to one run over six innings with seven strikeouts at the U-18 Asian Championship. Japan won 2-1, and international scout Francys Romero rated Oda the top prospect at the event. He has appeared in four straight Koshien tournaments.
Scouts from more than 20 MLB clubs filled the Taipei Dome for that start, according to Korean outlet MHN. Three of them now sit at the center of the race: the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers. The Dodgers and Yankees were labeled frontrunners by Japanese baseball reporting in August. On Friday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that rival executives expect the Yankees to chase Oda harder than Hanshin slugger Teruaki Sato, a player both New York clubs have been tied to.
The Mets, who had scouts in Taipei, need young pitching at every level. They have not been named a favorite.
A Yankees push years in the making
The Yankees have built toward this since January, when Mario Garza was promoted to international scouting director. He replaced Donny Rowland after years of costly Latin American bonuses that did not pay off.
Garza scouted Oda in person at an exhibition in Japan on Aug. 29. The organization is also working to hire an amateur scout based in Japan and has an agreement in place with Korean third baseman Seong Chul Cho.
After Lai signed in June, Garza explained why Asia had become a priority.
“I want people to know that we care about Asia,” Garza said.
He then pointed to Ohtani, the star who chose Los Angeles.
“One of the best players in the world is from Japan,” Garza said. “There are major league players from Korea and Taiwan, and it’s our duty to scout them, as we have. We have scouted them throughout the past number of years as well. But it’s kind of a philosophical change.”
The timing stings. As of late August, the Yankees held an estimated league-leading $2.9 million to $3 million in 2026 pool money after deals made under Rowland collapsed. Oda cannot sign until Jan. 15, 2027, which pushes him into next year’s class.
A Yankees source summed up the frustration.
“I wish Oda was this class!” the source said.
Why Thursday is still a threat
Oda’s announcement does not take him off the board in Japan. He filed his NPB draft paperwork Sept. 17, and any of the 12 clubs can still select him Thursday, Oct. 22.
There is precedent. In 2012, Ohtani declared on Oct. 21 that he was headed to America. The Nippon-Ham Fighters drafted him four days later and signed him Dec. 9.
SoftBank general manager Sugihiko Mikasa backed Oda’s choice this week but declined to rule out drafting him. NPB gives no compensation pick for an unsigned selection.
The money gap explains why the U.S. route is tempting. A Japanese first-round pick typically receives about 100 million yen plus 50 million yen in incentives, roughly $1 million. A National League scout told Sponichi he expects Oda’s MLB bonus to land near $2.5 million.
Japanese reports of a Yankees package worth more than 500 million yen remain unconfirmed. The Yankees had not made a formal offer as of late August.
Where the Oda race stands now
Oda has not named a club. He also has not ruled out enrolling at an American college, the path Rintaro Sasaki took through Stanford before signing with the Miami Marlins.
But the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets remain frontrunners.
Earlier in October, Oda quietly flew to the United States and watched a postseason game in San Diego. That brings the Padres into the conversation.
MLB’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, and teams have been told to prepare for a lockout. International amateur signings went ahead during the 2022 lockout because they are minor league deals.
The Yankees, Mets and Dodgers now wait on two dates. Thursday’s draft in Tokyo comes first. Jan. 15 comes next.
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