NEW YORK — The Yankees have spent most of September trying to secure the best possible path through October, but one of their most important offseason decisions is already waiting beyond the postseason.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is headed toward free agency after a season that has reinforced both sides of his value. He remains one of baseball’s most disruptive baserunners and a versatile middle infielder, but his offensive production has fallen from the 31-homer, 31-steal season he delivered in 2025.
Chisholm returned from the injured list Sept. 22 after a thumb injury and entered Thursday hitting .233 with 19 home runs, 55 RBIs, 41 stolen bases and a .717 OPS in 136 games. MLB’s Statcast database, updated through Sept. 23, also had him at a .314 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage.
That leaves the Yankees with a complicated winter calculation. Chisholm, 28, would offer youth, speed and defensive flexibility on a roster that already carries major long-term commitments. But free agency will force New York to decide how much of its next infield should be built around athleticism and how much should come from another source of left-handed power.
The Yankees have not publicly indicated that they plan to move on from Chisholm. There is also no reported negotiation with a replacement. Any outside forecast remains only a projection, especially with New York still focused on a postseason run.
Yet the position is one of the clearest pressure points on the coming roster. MLB lists Chisholm among the notable second basemen eligible for free agency after 2026. The same class includes several established veterans, creating alternatives if the Yankees decide Chisholm’s market moves beyond what they are willing to pay.
New York also must account for what it would lose. Chisholm’s 41 steals are a dimension few second basemen can replace. His age gives him a stronger long-term profile than most veteran alternatives, and his 2025 season showed the ceiling that made him such an important part of the Yankees lineup.
That is why one new free-agent prediction is notable. It does not offer a similar player. It offers almost the opposite profile.
A new prediction puts ex-Rays star in the Bronx
Bleacher Report’s Zach Buckley projected that two-time All-Star Brandon Lowe will sign a three-year contract with the Yankees after the season.
Lowe has strengthened his market with Pittsburgh. MLB Statcast data and the Sept. 23 game log put him at .262 with 34 home runs, 94 RBIs, 93 runs and an .825 OPS in 147 games entering Thursday. His latest homer pushed his career total to 191.
Buckley’s projection centers on Lowe’s uncommon power at second base.
“While it can be hard for a true second baseman to get paid, Lowe’s prolific power could make him an exception to the rule,” Buckley wrote.
Buckley projected a three-year deal and estimated Lowe could command an average annual salary around $25 million or higher.
Change would alter Yankees’ lineup identity
The Yankees would not be making a like-for-like exchange.
Chisholm has 41 steals this season. Lowe has two.
Lowe, however, has 34 homers to Chisholm’s 19. He also owns a longer power track record, with 39 homers in 2021 and 31 in 2025.
That contrast is the central roster question. A Chisholm departure would remove one of the Yankees’ best speed threats. Lowe would replace that element with another established left-handed home-run bat.
Age also matters. Chisholm will play next season at 29. Lowe is 32. A three-year commitment to Lowe would carry more aging risk, even if the term proved shorter than the contract Chisholm could seek.
Lowe’s 2026 durability strengthens the case
Lowe’s availability is an overlooked part of his season.
Injuries limited him to 65 games in 2022 and 109 in 2023. He played 134 games last season and has reached 147 this year, one shy of his career-high 149 from 2021.
His finish has also been strong. MLB Statcast data through Sept. 22 showed Lowe hitting .328 with a .408 on-base percentage and .582 slugging percentage in September before he homered again Sept. 23.
For the Yankees, that combination of power and improved availability would be the attraction. The question would be whether it outweighs Chisholm’s youth and speed.
Yankees decision still starts with Chisholm
The Yankees entered Thursday 91-67, five games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East and holding the top American League wild-card position.
Their second-base decision belongs to the winter.
Chisholm remains a Yankee through the end of the season, and he wants to stay in the Bronx.
Lowe remains a Pirate. Pittsburgh also has reason to pursue a reunion with a player who has become one of its most productive hitters.
There is no evidence yet that the Yankees have chosen Lowe over Chisholm or made Lowe a formal target.
What the projection creates is a plausible alternative if New York decides Chisholm’s next contract does not fit its roster plan. Lowe would bring less speed, more age and substantially more recent home-run production at the same position.
That tradeoff could become one of the Yankees’ most consequential roster decisions once October ends.
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