Math against Yankees, but history favors New York’s ALDS comeback

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NEW YORK — The math looks grim. The odds are long. The sting of back-to-back losses is still fresh.

Yet the Yankees are not giving up. Reason, their ALDS history offers a blueprint for comeback.

Trailing 0-2 to the Toronto Blue Jays in their best-of-five American League Division Series, the Yankees return to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Tuesday with their season on the line. The weekend in Toronto was brutal. New York was hammered 10-1 in Game 1, then embarrassed again in a 13-7 defeat in Game 2 that stood at 11-0 by the fifth inning.

Toronto made history by scoring 23 runs across the first two games of a postseason series, the most ever in MLB. The Blue Jays launched eight home runs in that span, leaving the Yankees looking completely outmatched.

But manager Aaron Boone is not surrendering. His players are not either. And past comebacks remind New York that this situation is not impossible.

Two previous Yankees resurrections offer blueprint

The Yankees have climbed out of this hole before — twice.

Teams leading 2-0 in a best-of-five postseason series have advanced 80 of 90 times, including 54 sweeps. In the current 2-2-1 format, 31 of 34 have moved on. But the Yankees are one of the rare teams to reverse that trend.

In 2001, the Yankees dropped the first two games at home against the 102-win Oakland Athletics, a team loaded with Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and MVP Jason Giambi. Then came Derek Jeter’s famous “Flip” play in Game 3. The Yankees’ bats came alive in Game 4, and they completed the comeback in Game 5 before advancing to the World Series.

It happened again in 2017. The Yankees lost the first two games of the Division Series in Cleveland, even blowing an 8-2 lead in Game 2 after a missed challenge call by manager Joe Girardi. But Greg Bird’s home run off Andrew Miller in Game 3 shifted momentum. The Yankees won Game 4, then Didi Gregorius hit two homers off Corey Kluber in Game 5 to seal the comeback.

Aaron Judge, the only remaining player from that 2017 roster, brought up that memory after Sunday’s blowout loss.

“We got to take it to them when we get back to New York,” Judge said. “We have to be able to score first and put the pressure on them to flip the script.”

The Toronto torture chamber

Toronto dominated the Yankees all season long. The Blue Jays took eight of 13 regular-season meetings, including six of seven at Rogers Centre, and that command carried into October.

In Game 2, rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage, just 22 years old, silenced New York’s lineup. The right-hander, drafted 20th overall last year, kept the Yankees hitless through 5 2/3 innings and struck out 11 over 5 1/3 frames, setting a franchise postseason record. He retired 18 of 31 Yankees batters faced.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit the first postseason grand slam in Blue Jays history. Daulton Varsho went 4-for-5 with two doubles, four runs scored, and four RBIs. Ernie Clement, George Springer, and Cody Bellinger also went deep.

Yankees ace Max Fried lasted just three-plus innings, giving up seven earned runs. The bullpen didn’t do better, covering 10 1/3 innings over the two games with little success.

“Obviously, it feels like the world’s caving in around you, you lose two games like that in their building where it doesn’t go right,” Boone said. “But all of a sudden you go out there and win a ballgame on Tuesday, the needle can change.”

Home cooking could spark turnaround

The Yankees are counting on Yankee Stadium to change everything. The Bronx crowd has fueled them all year, and they need that spark again.

While Toronto owned New York in Canada, going 6-1 at Rogers Centre, the Yankees won four of six meetings at home.

“We’re going home, they’re coming to our place and it’s going to be different,” reliever Will Warren said before the team flew back. “We’re a good team. We know what we have to do. Handle business at home.”
Outfielder Cody Bellinger agreed.

“I think just being at home gives us a little bit of confidence,” Bellinger said. “Obviously they got us in those two games there in Toronto. But to be back at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd, it’s definitely exciting.”

The Yankees’ biggest task is to strike first. They allowed Toronto to jump ahead early in both games up north, giving the crowd energy and losing all momentum.

Pitching matchups favor New York

If the Yankees can start a rally, their rotation could make it possible.

Left-hander Carlos Rodon will start Game 3. Rodon was dominant all season, posting 18 wins and logging a career-high 195 innings. He will face right-hander Shane Bieber, the former Cy Young winner Toronto traded for at the deadline.

If the Yankees extend the series, rookie Cam Schlittler is expected to start Game 4. The 24-year-old fireballer shut down the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card game, striking out 12 in eight scoreless innings. His fastball regularly touches 100 mph, and Boston hitters barely made contact.

Should there be a Game 5, it would likely be Max Fried on full rest, who led the majors with 19 wins this year and delivered 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the Wild Card Series opener.

Manager maintains measured optimism

Boone understands the situation. He isn’t downplaying the challenge or the embarrassment. But he’s also not giving up.

“We approach it like we have really all season, but even more specifically, the last six, eight weeks where we feel like we’ve been playing with a lot on the line every single day,” Boone said. “We’ll go into our hitters’ meeting, and it’s about win today, period. Not getting ahead of that and even keeping it smaller than that. It’s about going up and trying to win every pitch. Keep it small. Keep it simple.”

The Yankees have lived on the edge before. They won their last eight regular-season games to almost catch Toronto for the AL East crown. They came from behind to beat Boston in the Wild Card Series.

“Baseball is a funny game,” Boone said. “There’s been a lot of weird things that have happened in baseball this year. This would not be the weirdest, us rallying. We’ll come ready to go Tuesday, expect to win, and then look to win again and push it back here.”

Confidence hasn’t disappeared inside the clubhouse. Boone still believes.

“Obviously the Blue Jays had our number and gotten the better of us so far this year, but I don’t think anyone in our room doesn’t feel like we can’t go out and beat them,” he said. “We’ve got to play better. We’ve got to pitch and swing it better. But we’re certainly capable of it and we’ll expect to do that on Tuesday night.”

The numbers say the Yankees’ season could end soon. But history — and belief — say it’s not over yet.

Game 3 begins Tuesday night in the Bronx. Win or go home.

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