Luke Weaver’s velocity dip: Red flag for Yankees or just Spring Training rust?

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As the New York Yankees prepare for their 2025 campaign, a potentially troubling development has emerged from their spring training sessions: Luke Weaver is showing a noticeable decrease in his fastball velocity. The 31-year-old right-hander, who emerged as a pivotal bullpen piece during the Yankees’ 2024 season, has displayed diminished velocity in his early spring appearances. With championship aspirations on the horizon, the question becomes whether this development warrants genuine concern.

Weaver’s 2024 breakout with the Yankees

Weaver’s journey with the Yankees last season represented a remarkable career renaissance. Initially brought in as merely a depth addition, he evolved into an essential bullpen weapon, eventually stepping into the closer role when Clay Holmes struggled down the stretch.

After being claimed off waivers in late 2023 and subsequently re-signed in January 2024, Weaver began the season in a long relief capacity. By midseason, however, his consistent performance had earned him increasing responsibility, culminating in a surprising elevation to the closer position in September.

His 2024 statistics tell the story of his revival – a 2.89 ERA, 103 strikeouts, and 84 innings pitched, marking his most successful season in years. Central to this resurgence was a significant velocity increase, with his four-seam fastball averaging 95.7 mph compared to 94 mph in earlier seasons.

During his final eight appearances of 2024, Weaver was virtually untouchable, allowing no earned runs while securing four saves. His unexpected dominance provided crucial stability during the Yankees’ playoff push.

Spring Training 2025: A noticeable dip in velocity

Fast forward to spring training in 2025, and Weaver’s velocity readings tell a different tale, as highlighted by Stacey Gotsulias in the podcast Locked On Yankees. His fastball, which consistently registered 95-96 mph last season, has been clocking in at just 92-93 mph. While it’s common for pitchers to gradually build velocity during spring preparations, this reduction has generated concern among observers.

The critical question remains: Does this represent a genuine problem, or simply part of Weaver’s normal preseason progression?

What the Yankees are saying

Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake and team sources have downplayed the situation, pointing to Weaver’s historical patterns.

According to one MLB source familiar with the situation, this pattern isn’t unusual. The source noted that Weaver’s velocity fluctuated throughout last year before eventually ramping up late in the season, adding that some pitchers simply require more time to reach their peak speeds.

Blake emphasized that Weaver isn’t exclusively reliant on raw power – his effectiveness stems largely from command, movement, and strategic pitch sequencing. His changeup and cutter have proven particularly effective in disrupting hitters’ timing.

“If this lasts into the regular season, then it’s something to watch,” Blake noted. “But Weaver isn’t the kind of pitcher who needs to throw 98 to be effective.”

Weaver’s role in 2025: A shift in responsibilities

A significant contextual change heading into 2025 is Weaver’s redefined role in the Yankees’ bullpen. Last season, he was thrust into high-leverage ninth-inning situations following Holmes’ inconsistency. The adrenaline from those pressure situations may have contributed to his velocity spike.

This year, with Devin Williams taking over as the team’s closer, Weaver will primarily handle setup duties. While this may reduce his stress level, it could also explain his early velocity readings – he may not be experiencing the same intensity that closing games demanded.

Moreover, the Yankees anticipate Jonathan Loáisiga‘s return in April, and they continue to feature reliable relievers like Wandy Peralta and Ian Hamilton. This bullpen depth provides the luxury of not overworking Weaver during the season’s early months.

What the Yankees should monitor

While Weaver’s velocity decrease doesn’t constitute an immediate crisis, several factors warrant ongoing attention:

• The timeline for velocity recovery – If he remains in the 92-93 mph range by mid-April, it could signal mechanical issues or fatigue.
• Command and movement – If Weaver maintains precise location and movement on his pitches, a modest velocity reduction shouldn’t significantly impair his effectiveness.
• Potential arsenal adjustments – Should his velocity remain below last year’s levels, he may need to rely more heavily on his secondary pitches to maintain his effectiveness.

Final verdict: A minor concern for now

Luke Weaver’s velocity drop merits attention but doesn’t yet warrant serious alarm. His breakout 2024 season wasn’t based solely on increased velocity – it reflected improved command, enhanced pitch movement, and intelligent adjustments to hitters.

However, if his fastball continues registering in the low 90s into May and June, the Yankees might need to reevaluate his role and workload management. For now, a measured, wait-and-see approach seems most prudent before drawing definitive conclusions.

With their deep relief corps and clearly defined bullpen roles, the Yankees can afford patience regarding Weaver’s situation. But should his velocity remain diminished once regular-season competition begins, this storyline could gain significantly more attention as the season unfolds.

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