NEW YORK — The New York Yankees’ offseason has taken a surprising turn. What once seemed like a clear decision about Cody Bellinger’s future has shifted into a high-stakes negotiation. A new contract projection has created uncertainty and could reshape how the roster looks next year.
Bellinger declined his $25 million player option earlier this month. After two uneven trips through free agency in recent years, this winter feels different. For the first time in a while, the leverage is firmly in his hands.
Chemistry that cannot be ignored
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Bellinger’s arrival in the Bronx last December did not come with much fanfare. The move was part of a salary shuffle after the Cubs landed Kyle Tucker. New York gave up little, sending Cody Poteet in return, and many expected only modest contributions.
Instead, Bellinger flourished. He slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 homers and 98 RBI. Beyond numbers, he brought defensive flexibility that manager Aaron Boone relied on all year. He logged 85 games in left, 52 in right, 41 in center, and even seven at first base.
His production gave the Yankees 5.0 bWAR and 4.9 fWAR, his second-best totals since his 2019 MVP season. He cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.7 percent, boosted his walk rate to 8.7 percent, and raised his hard-hit rate to 37.9 percent.
“This should be the best market he’s had,” one American League executive told MLB.com. “He was a real difference-maker for the Yankees this season.”
Captain Aaron Judge also forged a strong connection with Bellinger. Their on-field chemistry created the power duo New York needed. Judge’s opinion carries weight in front office talks, making his support for Bellinger notable.
Numbers that defied expectations
The most eye-opening statistics came against left-handed pitching. Bellinger, a left-handed hitter himself, turned a usual disadvantage into a weapon.
In 176 plate appearances against southpaws, he hit .353/.415/.601 with just a 9.7 percent strikeout rate. The combination of elite contact and power was historic.
Only Barry Bonds had matched those benchmarks since 2002, posting a 1.000-plus OPS with fewer than 10 percent strikeouts against lefties in two seasons. Bellinger’s 2025 now joins that short list.
Bellinger price tag that keeps climbing
The financial outlook has shifted quickly. Spotrac projects Bellinger at six years and $182 million, or $30.33 million annually.
That number surprised many executives. Early estimates hovered closer to $140 million total. The difference now stretches nearly $40 million, raising the stakes for any suitor.
If signed at that rate, Bellinger would become the highest-paid center fielder in the sport. He would also rank 17th among all MLB players in average annual salary.
“I do think he will get a more substantial guarantee than the last few years,” a National League executive told MLB.com. “He’s proved he can stay healthy, he’s still young enough, and he plays multiple spots.”
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees have made him their priority. “They want Bellinger,” Heyman said. “If that can work out, they’ll bring him back. He fit in nicely. Left-handed bat.”
Rival who commands bigger money
The alternative path is Kyle Tucker. The premier free-agent outfielder projects to command a staggering contract. Spotrac projects him for 10 years and $401 million, more than double Bellinger’s figure.
Two anonymous executives told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the Yankees should avoid chasing Tucker. One pointed out Bellinger’s fit at Yankee Stadium.
“He’s gone from a super-volatile player to one who in the last three years is more predictable,” the executive said. “He’s been consistent. He has posted. And I think the guy who hit .266 with 18 homers for the Cubs in 2024 was a lot like the guy who hit .272 with 29 homers for the Yankees last year. He’s just a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium.”
The second executive stressed versatility. “He will be 31 midway through next year, but he fits so many teams because he plays so many positions well. He’s going to do well in the market.”
Heyman added that Bellinger provides advantages Tucker cannot: the ability to play center and first base, plus no qualifying offer attached.
Tucker finished 2025 with a .266 average, 22 homers, 25 steals, and an .841 OPS. But his defense dipped, with minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-2 Outs Above Average.
Structure that could bridge the gap
A six-year deal with lower annual value could satisfy both sides. The Yankees would preserve payroll flexibility while Bellinger would gain long-term security.
The market offers few alternatives with his versatility and left-handed power. Judge’s desire to keep his outfield partner only strengthens New York’s case.
Still, the Yankees cannot blow past budget limits. Other roster holes demand attention, from bullpen arms to first base and infield depth. A deal nearing $40 million per year could cripple flexibility.
“I think they’ll obviously be in on him, but there will be a lot of competition,” an NL executive said. “And they seem to be one of the clubs that doesn’t chase above their limit, like with Juan Soto last year.”
Yankees pitted against agent who extracts maximum value
Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, one of baseball’s most relentless negotiators. His track record includes some of the game’s biggest contracts.
Two years ago, Bellinger was part of the “Boras Four” with Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell. All failed to land long-term deals at first, settling for short-term contracts. Later, Chapman and Snell scored bigger extensions. Bellinger now aims for the same breakthrough.
Joel Sherman summed up the Yankees’ usual approach. “My suspicion is they will do what the Yankees usually do, which is when they really want a player, they let Scott Boras in this case know, ‘we really want your player.’”
Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report projected a slightly different deal: five years, $140 million, plus a sixth-year option, which would give him $28 million annually.
Competition that threatens reunion
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The Yankees will not have a clear path. The Mets loom with deep pockets and a need for outfield help, especially if Pete Alonso departs. Stealing Bellinger would echo their Soto signing last winter.
The Phillies also emerge as a fit if Kyle Schwarber leaves. Bellinger could slide into right field with Nick Castellanos moving to DH.
Detroit could make an aggressive play too. The Tigers want another impact bat and Bellinger’s defense across multiple positions fits their blueprint.
After the Yankees’ playoff exit, Bellinger made his feelings known. “Yeah, absolutely,” he said when asked about returning. “I had an unbelievable time putting on this uniform. Yankee Stadium, the fans, the organization, the culture that these guys have created in this locker room.”
Timeline that demands urgency
The Yankees cannot issue Bellinger a qualifying offer. He already received and rejected one two years ago. That removes draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
The $182 million projection sets the baseline. With Boras involved, that figure may only climb. The Yankees must balance the desire to retain Judge’s running mate with payroll realities and other roster needs.
Losing Bellinger would alter both the outfield and infield depth. His versatility, combined with Judge’s presence, defined much of the 2025 offense. The next few months will determine whether that partnership continues.
The Yankees know the stakes. Their championship window remains open, but decisions this winter will define its length.
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