Fresh off their World Series shortfall, the New York Yankees have positioned Juan Soto‘s retention as their primary offseason objective. However, the organization’s contingency planning has become a subject of significant analysis among baseball insiders.
ESPN New York analyst Michael Kay has offered a distinctive perspective on the Yankees’ backup strategy, suggesting a departure from the widely discussed Pete Alonso option. During his November 7 broadcast, Kay presented an alternative scenario centered on Cardinals’ third baseman Nolan Arenado.
“I keep saying that if the Yankees lose Soto, that one of their plan B’s or their fallback option would be Pete Alonso,” Kay told. “And I appreciate Pete Alonso as a player. Why would the Yankees do that? How is that their Plan B? That doesn’t make sense to me. A right-handed batter right there was six to seven years for he’s 30 years old. Why would you do that? How does that fit the Yankees game plan with their left field? That’s not the move to make. That’s not your Plan B.”
“Now, if I’m the Yankees, one of my Plan B’s and you’ll laugh at me, the Cardinals are cleaning house,” he added. “Now he has a no trade plan. But I’ve talked with Nolan Arenado.”
Kay elaborated on his reservations about pursuing Alonso, citing concerns about committing long-term to a right-handed first baseman entering his thirties, particularly considering the Yankees’ current outfield structure. Instead, he outlined the potential benefits of targeting Arenado, noting that while the Cardinals star carries a no-trade clause and a substantial $31 million annual salary, creative negotiation could make a deal feasible.
“He’s a baseball guy,” Kay said. “He understands what works, what’s important, history of the game. I go to the Cardinals, go, you eat 12 to 15 million of his 31 million that he’s owed over the next couple of years. We’ll take Nolan Arenado. Nolan Arenado is a platinum-level glove third baseman. You already wasted two years at 25 million a year for Josh Donaldson. This guy is a pro. Now he’s probably on the downside. Yeah, but still. I will take my chance on Arenado.”
The analyst also proposed an intriguing alternative for the Yankees’ first base vacancy, suggesting Jeff McNeil as an ideal candidate. According to Kay’s baseball sources, McNeil’s left-handed bat could potentially flourish at Yankee Stadium, with projections suggesting he could reach 25 home runs in the favorable hitting environment.
Statistical analysis supports the need for third-base reinforcement. While FanGraphs ranked the Yankees among the top 10 in WAR at third base for 2024, this success largely stemmed from Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s impressive 2.1 WAR contribution over just 45 games following his mid-season acquisition. The potential departure of Gleyber Torres via free agency could trigger a defensive realignment, with Chisholm potentially shifting to second base, creating an opening for Arenado at third.
Kay on Yankees’ Soto strategy
According to Kay’s analysis, the organization plans to present what they consider a reasonable offer, with a clear willingness to withdraw if Scott Boras’s demands exceed their valuation.
“The Yankees will have a number for Soto that they feel is a fair number, and they’ll say to (Scott Boras) ‘here is it,’ and if Boras says no, the Yankees will walk away.”
Kay provided historical context, noting Brian Cashman’s reputation for maintaining emotional distance in contract negotiations. The broadcaster drew parallels to the Aaron Judge contract situation, where a similar scenario unfolded. In that instance, negotiations reached an impasse until owner Hal Steinbrenner’s direct intervention, which included a personal call to Judge, ultimately resulted in the critical ninth year being added to secure the deal.
Based on this precedent, Kay suggested that should the Soto negotiations stall under Cashman’s management, Steinbrenner’s involvement might once again prove decisive. This insight highlights the potential two-tier negotiation structure within the Yankees organization, where Cashman establishes initial parameters but Steinbrenner retains the authority to override conventional limitations for exceptional talent.
The analysis indicates that while the Yankees have established their parameters for Soto’s value, the final outcome might ultimately depend on whether Steinbrenner chooses to replicate his Judge intervention in this high-stakes negotiation.
Is Kay right in suggesting Arenado as Yankees’ Soto back-up plan?
While Michael Kay’s suggestion to pursue a trade for Nolan Arenado holds promise, Arenado may not fully fill the void left by Juan Soto. Finding an ideal replacement for Soto is challenging, especially considering that the 26-year-old Dominican slugger has already proven himself as one of baseball’s elite talents.
Arenado, however, brings a Hall of Fame-worthy career to the table. Known for his consistent high-level performance, Arenado boasts a career slash line of .285/.342/.516, with 341 home runs, 1,826 hits, and an OPS+ of 121. The 33-year-old has earned 10 Gold Glove Awards, appeared in eight All-Star games, and received six Platinum Gloves, establishing his legacy as one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history.
In recent years, however, Arenado’s offensive numbers have declined. While he had consecutive seasons with over 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, and an OPS of .800 or higher in 2021 and 2022, his production since 2023 has dipped, averaging 21 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a .746 OPS. Entering his age-34 season in 2025, Arenado remains productive, though age and recent performance trends suggest a gradual decline.
Arenado’s current contract, an eight-year, $260 million deal, runs through 2027, with $52 million still owed. If the Yankees were to consider this trade, St. Louis would likely need to cover a significant portion of his salary. This approach could offer New York an intriguing option to strengthen their lineup and defense.
While Arenado could be a valuable addition, Soto remains the preferred long-term asset due to his youth and upside. In an ideal scenario, the Yankees would secure both players for the upcoming season, building a roster with a mix of elite offensive and defensive capabilities.
What do you think? Leave your comment below.
I agree with Kay I like how the article states Hal could get involved with the Soto contract like he did with Judge. Arenado I think is also great pick up because what our lineup lacks is a great hitter he makes contact doesn’t matter about homeruns plus he be great defensively. I like that the article talked about being creative(look at the dodgers) signing both Soto & Arenado. If we don’t sign Torres Jazz would go to 2nd opening up 3rd base. Use our international money to sign that Japanese pitcher too only a minor leagues option since since he’s only 23 & not 25.