Judge’s $360M vs. Guerrero’s $500M: Money talks, but real value trumps

Follow Us

Nearly two years after Aaron Judge secured his $360 million extension with the Yankees, his contract appears increasingly favorable for the Bronx Bombers—particularly in light of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s mammoth $500 million agreement with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Guerrero, just 26 years old, finalized baseball’s second-highest contract in Blue Jays history Sunday evening, now ranking second all-time in average annual value at $35.71 million. Only the Mets’ Juan Soto, who inked an astonishing $765 million contract this past offseason, surpasses this figure with his $51 million yearly salary.

By comparison, Judge’s nine-year, $360 million pact—paying him $40 million annually—continues delivering exceptional value, especially when measuring his contributions against Guerrero’s.

Judge’s value towers over Guerrero’s ambition

Though both players represent franchise cornerstones, performance metrics heavily favor Judge. The Yankees‘ captain and two-time American League MVP has accumulated 53.3 career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) across 1,002 games, more than doubling Guerrero’s 21.6 WAR through 829 appearances, according to Stathead.

Calculated per 162-game season, Judge averages an extraordinary 8.62 WAR versus Guerrero’s 4.22. This stark production gap becomes even more remarkable considering the relatively narrow differential in annual compensation—merely $4.29 million separates their yearly earnings.

Judge’s offensive superiority appears even more pronounced upon deeper examination. His lifetime OPS (on-base plus slugging) stands at 1.013, currently leading all active major leaguers and ranking tenth in baseball history. Guerrero, meanwhile, carries a career .861 OPS. When adjusted for league and ballpark factors, the Yankees slugger boasts a career OPS+ of 174, performing 74% better than the average player. Guerrero’s OPS+, while respectable, registers at 137.

Power numbers further illustrate Judge’s dominance. Through early April 2025, he’s amassed 321 career home runs—averaging 36.76 homers per 500 plate appearances. Guerrero has collected 160, averaging just 22.32 home runs per 500 PA.

Defense adds to the divide

Judge’s value extends well beyond his offensive prowess. His outfield defense has contributed +58 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) according to Fangraphs, establishing him among the decade’s premier right fielders. Guerrero, who’s alternated between first and third base, carries a career DRS of -3, indicating his defensive play has actually cost his team runs.

The contrast couldn’t be clearer: the two-time MVP excels as an elite two-dimensional player, while Guerrero’s contributions remain predominantly limited to the offense—where his output still significantly trails Judge’s.

Judge’s deal keeps getting better for the Yankees

When Judge recommitted to the Yankees following his historic 62-homer campaign in 2022, skeptics questioned whether the organization had overextended financially. At the signing, his contract represented baseball’s third-largest ever, behind only Mike Trout ($426.5M) and Mookie Betts ($365M).

With Soto’s $765 million blockbuster and now Guerrero’s $500 million extension entering the conversation, Judge’s agreement increasingly resembles a strategic victory for general manager Brian Cashman and the Yankees’ front office.

At approximately $40 million yearly, Judge delivers more than twice Guerrero’s production while costing merely 12% more annually—a premium that now appears modest in today’s inflated superstar marketplace.

The value of consistency

Judge, currently in his age-32 season, maintains his status among baseball’s most reliable and intimidating hitters. He’s already launched six homers through 2025’s first two weeks and continues anchoring a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in both runs scored and home runs.

Guerrero, despite his youth and potential, represents a less consistent asset. While he enjoyed a breakout 48-homer season in 2021, he hasn’t replicated that performance level since. His OPS declined in 2024, and his overall value plateaued.

Toronto is betting heavily on Guerrero’s long-term ceiling, and his offensive talent remains undeniable. However, as baseball contracts continue soaring to unprecedented heights, the Yankees’ investment in Aaron Judge is aging remarkably well.

While Soto and Guerrero generate headlines with staggering financial figures, Judge quietly proves he’s not just worth his contract—he might represent the premier value among baseball’s highest-paid stars.

What do you think? Leave your comment below.

Follow Us