NEW YORK — The Yankees expected Gerrit Cole back sometime in spring. They will have to wait longer than anticipated.
General manager Brian Cashman recently put Cole’s return timeline at late May or early June. The update surprised even those who follow the team closely. Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay expressed concern about the lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery.
“Gerrit Cole is probably not going to get back until June 1, and I was a little surprised by that because he had the brace surgery and that was in March, I thought he’d get back closer to the front of the year,” Kay said during an appearance on the New York Post’s “The Show” podcast. “But, you know, he’s an older pitcher and they want to make sure he’s right. There’s a lot of starts to fill.”
The surgery timeline tells the story
Cole underwent Tommy John surgery with an internal brace procedure in March 2025. The typical recovery ranges from 14 to 18 months. He originally targeted a 14-month timeline. That would have put his return in May 2026.
The 2023 AL Cy Young winner missed the entire 2025 season. He has not thrown a pitch in a regular season game since battling elbow inflammation in 2024. That year, he made just 17 starts and posted a 3.41 ERA before his elbow gave out completely the following spring.
Cole turns 35 in September. Recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery at his age presents different challenges than it would for a younger pitcher. The Yankees are taking no chances with their $324 million investment.
Three starters will miss Opening Day
The rotation problems extend far beyond Cole. Carlos Rodon had surgery in October to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur in his left elbow. He is expected back in late April or early May. Clarke Schmidt also had Tommy John surgery in July. He might not return until the second half of the season, if at all.
That leaves Max Fried as the only proven frontline starter available on Opening Day. Fried was brilliant in 2025, setting a career high in innings and posting 4.8 WAR. He will shoulder the load in April and May.
Behind him sit promising but unproven arms. Cam Schlittler emerged as a breakout star last season with a 2.96 ERA in 73 innings. Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, struggled with a lat injury that limited him to just 11 starts. Will Warren showed flashes but lacks consistency.
The young arms must carry the burden
The projected Opening Day rotation now features Fried, Schlittler, Gil, Warren, and Ryan Yarbrough. None of the pitchers behind Fried has a sustained track record of success at the major league level.
Schlittler, Gil, and Warren are all coming off career-high workloads. Asking them to carry the staff again creates its own injury risk. The Yankees also re-signed Paul Blackburn on a minor league deal to provide additional depth.
The Cubs traded for Edward Cabrera on Wednesday, a hard-throwing starter the Yankees had been connected to throughout the winter. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Yankees were “never close” to making a deal. That missed opportunity leaves fewer options for rotation help.
Questions linger about what Cole will look like
Even when Cole returns, there are no guarantees he will resemble the dominant pitcher who won the Cy Young just two years ago. Recovering from Tommy John at 35 is vastly different from recovering at 25. His career includes over 1,900 innings. That mileage does not disappear.
His fastball velocity had already dipped below 96 mph in 2024 for the first time in seven seasons. His strikeout rate declined for the fourth consecutive year. Whether the rest allows him to regain lost velocity or compounds the age-related decline remains unknown.
Justin Verlander provides the best-case scenario for comparison. He had Tommy John surgery at 37, missed 2021, then won the Cy Young in 2022. The Yankees would sign up for that outcome immediately. But for every Verlander, there are dozens of pitchers who never regained their previous form.
The Yankees believe they can survive the wait
If Cole returns healthy before the All-Star break, the Yankees think they can withstand his absence. The depth chart does not inspire confidence, but it offers options. Manager Aaron Boone has expressed faith in the young arms.
“We feel like Warren and Schlittler are ready to be in the rotation full-time,” Boone told reporters last season after releasing Marcus Stroman.
The first two months of the season will test that belief. The Yankees cannot afford to fall too far behind in the AL East while waiting for reinforcements. The Blue Jays won the World Series last year. The Orioles added Pete Alonso. Toronto has been aggressive again this winter, signing Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto.
Spring training arrives in five weeks
The clock is ticking. Cole hopes to face live hitters at some point during spring training, but that is not guaranteed. His rehab continues at Yankee Stadium where he has been working out six days a week.
The best version of the Yankees rotation includes Cole, Fried, Rodon, Schlittler, and one of Gil or Warren. That group would rank among the best in baseball. The question is whether it will ever take the field together.
For now, the Yankees must plan around a June 1 target date for their ace. That is a long time to wait for a team with championship aspirations.
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