Dylan Cease’s awkward free agency offers Yankees a perfect chance to seize on

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NEW YORK — The New York Yankees stand at a pivotal offseason crossroads. On paper, the rotation looks strong, led by Max Fried’s ace power. In reality, questions outweigh stability.

Gerrit Cole continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery with no firm return date. Carlos Rodon, fresh off another surgery, may miss the start of 2026. Clarke Schmidt faces his own uncertainty heading into spring.

Luis Gil flashed promise as a rookie but has yet to prove long-term durability. Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler can’t be expected to shoulder the full load alone.

The Yankees know the 162-game grind demands more than potential. What they lack is reliability, and that’s where an opportunity sits in plain sight.

Dylan Cease enters free agency carrying both flaws and upside. His market appears awkward, but that’s exactly what makes it attractive for the Yankees to move decisively.

The contract sweet spot emerges

According to Spotrac, Cease projects to command roughly $26.4 million per year, with some estimates placing his total deal near $160 million over six years. The Yankees, already locked into several long-term contracts, are unlikely to commit to another extended deal for a 30-year-old starter.

A smarter play lies in structure. A four-year, $100 million contract with an opt-out after the first season would make sense for both sides. Cease would gain financial security and the option to re-enter free agency if he rebounds.

The Yankees, meanwhile, would add a proven starter without compromising payroll flexibility. It’s a balanced move for a team that values short-term competitiveness and long-term freedom.

The qualifying offer, set at $22.02 million for 2025, provides the negotiating baseline. San Diego likely extended that offer, and Cease just as likely declined it, setting the stage for his first major free agency test.

The surface stats hide a deeper value

Cease’s 2025 numbers seem uninspiring at first glance. He finished with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 168 innings — his lightest workload in four years. Control remained his Achilles’ heel as he issued 71 walks, the third-highest total in the National League, with a 9.8 percent walk rate that ranked in the 20th percentile.

“His stuff is still elite,” an NL talent evaluator told MLB.com. “His command isn’t.”

The baserunners piled up. Cease allowed 228 runners on hits, walks, or hit-by-pitches, compared with 204 in 2024 despite throwing 21 fewer innings. His WHIP rose from 1.067 to 1.327 in a single season.

His signature slider lost some of its dominance. Hitters slugged .374 against it in 2025 after .257 the year before. He threw 123 fewer sliders yet gave up more damage, surrendering eight home runs on that pitch after five in 2024. His knuckle curve also faltered — opponents hit .333 with a .576 slugging percentage, up from .280 and .440 a year ago.

Durable but rarely deep, Cease averaged 5.25 innings per start and went six or more frames in just 11 of 32 outings.

“He is your definition of five-and-dive,” one NL executive said. “He works, he is durable and he takes the ball every fifth day, but I wouldn’t pay him big. He’s just not reliable to get you deep into games.”

The hidden positives still stand out

Even in a down year, Cease’s strikeout power stayed elite. He fanned 215 batters, marking his fifth straight 200-strikeout season. His 29.8 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 89th percentile among all MLB pitchers.

His four-seam fastball velocity actually increased to 97.1 mph, slightly above 2024’s 96.9. He allowed softer contact overall, trimming his hard-hit rate to 37.5 percent while his average exit velocity dropped to 88.9 mph.

Advanced metrics back up the belief that Cease performed better than his ERA suggests. His 3.56 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) points to bad luck and poor defensive support inflating his totals.

“His stuff remains elite even when results don’t always match,” one National League scout said. Another NL executive added, “He’s better than his 2025 ERA. There’s a little bit of the San Diego park factor, but he was also good in Chicago, so that helps. With how teams are always on the hunt for top starting pitching, his age, health, etc., I see him getting a pretty big deal.”

Why the Yankees need him anyway

The Yankees rotation may look deep but remains fragile. Cole’s recovery stretches into mid-2026. Fried and Rodon are All-Stars but unpredictable. Schlittler impressed in 2025, and Gil remains talented yet untested for a full season. Schmidt’s comeback adds more uncertainty.

Injuries have altered every Yankees blueprint the past two seasons. Cole, Rodon, and Schmidt are all expected to open 2026 on the injured list. One more setback could derail early progress. The Yankees can’t risk another shortfall of reliable innings.

Cease’s durability fills that void. He has not missed a rotation turn in six full major-league seasons. Between 2022 and 2024, he averaged 183 innings and 221 strikeouts. That dependability is rare and invaluable to a Yankees staff worn thin by injuries.

The perfect timing

Cease turns 30 on December 28, and his age paired with an uneven 2025 will likely temper bids. That gives a disciplined front office like the Yankees leverage.

History offers perspective. Carlos Rodon signed a six-year, $162 million deal before his age-30 season after just 98 starts in six years. By contrast, Cease made 174 starts in the same stretch. Aaron Nola, another top-of-rotation starter, signed seven years and $172 million at 31 after posting a 66–49 record with a 3.65 ERA in 175 starts. Cease’s numbers line up closely: 61–51 with a 3.73 ERA in 174 starts, 1,150 strikeouts in 942 innings, and a 1.243 WHIP. His raw stuff still rates higher.

The competitive landscape

Several contenders need front-line arms. The Phillies could lose Ranger Suarez. The Blue Jays may part ways with veterans Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer. The Astros could shift from Framber Valdez. The Angels ranked 28th in rotation ERA this season, and the Tigers and Cubs need depth. The Mets, Orioles, Nationals, and Cardinals also fit the profile of clubs seeking durable starters.

“The guy has two Top-5 Cy Young finishes in the past few years,” an American League executive told MLB.com. “He probably isn’t going to set any records, but he should do quite well for himself.”

The Yankees, armed with payroll flexibility and urgency, can move faster than most. They need a stabilizing arm as their stars heal.

The smart Yankees move

A four-year, $100 million deal fits both Cease’s market and the Yankees’ budget. At $25 million per year, it’s a fair value without restricting future pursuits. The contract could include an opt-out after the first year, rewarding Cease if he rebounds while protecting the Yankees from long-term exposure.

Cease gains a platform to re-establish himself in New York under elite pitching guidance. The Yankees gain a proven strikeout artist and inning-eater who can anchor a rotation stretched by injuries.

Cease brings rare durability

The right-hander’s record of availability remains one of the best in baseball. He started 32 games in 2025 after 33 in 2024, joining a small group of pitchers to make 30-plus starts for five straight years. He has never spent significant time on the injured list.

His career includes two Top-5 Cy Young finishes and a no-hitter for San Diego on July 25, 2025, against the Nationals. That performance proved what his stuff can do when everything clicks.

Advanced data reinforces the case: an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph and a 37.5 percent hard-hit rate point toward better results ahead. The velocity on his fastball has never dropped, and his breaking pitches still draw swings and misses at elite rates.

The Yankees staff, led by pitching coach Matt Blake, has a track record of helping power arms refine command through mechanical tweaks and pitch design. Cease fits that mold perfectly.

Strategic fit with the Yankees’ window

Aaron Judge enters his mid-30s as the Yankees push to maximize their championship window. They can’t afford to wait for the perfect pitching market. Cease offers immediate rotation depth and insurance against further injury setbacks. His presence would allow the Yankees to manage their young arms carefully while bolstering October options.

Pitching wins in October. Depth keeps teams alive. Cease checks both boxes.

The window for the Yankees

The Yankees can’t let their “bullpen first” plan distract from a clear rotation need. Three starters will begin 2026 on the injured list. Cease offers a reliable, high-ceiling solution at manageable cost. He misses bats, takes the ball every fifth day, and projects for better results than his ERA suggests.

The Yankees have the resources and the motivation to capitalize on this market. Cease’s situation and price create a rare lane for a team ready to strike. The chance is rare. The fit is real. The timing is theirs.

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