Carrasco or Warren? Yankees’ tough rotation choice depends on Schmidt’s health

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With the Yankees‘ rotation already facing challenges, Clarke Schmidt said Monday he felt “great” after throwing a bullpen session.

According to the New York Daily News, Schmidt was initially scheduled to start Sunday’s spring training game against the Pirates but was rescheduled for Monday’s exhibition against the Blue Jays. Ultimately, he ended up throwing a 24-pitch side session due to shoulder fatigue following his March 11 debut.

“I wouldn’t be throwing if there was concern about anything major,” Schmidt said after the bullpen, per Jack Curry of the YES Network, adding that both he and the Yankees are being cautious.

Schmidt’s return timeline

Schmidt is now eyeing March 19 or 20 for his next spring start, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, though his exact return will depend on how he recovers from this bullpen session. Schmidt remains optimistic about making his regular-season debut on April 3 against the Diamondbacks, the Yankees’ sixth game of the season.

That date represents a delayed timeline already, thanks to earlier back issues that disrupted his spring preparation.

Since the Yankees have two off-days during their first five games, they might manage with just four starters until Schmidt is ready.

Rotation decisions: Warren vs. Carrasco

With Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (lat strain) sidelined, Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, and Marcus Stroman are locked into rotation spots. If Schmidt stays on schedule, the final rotation spot comes down to Will Warren and Carlos Carrasco.

Both Warren and Carrasco have impressed this spring with ERAs under 3.00. Warren, 25, can be optioned to the minors after an uneven major league debut last season. Carrasco, a 37-year-old veteran with 15 years of experience, can opt out of his contract on March 22 if not added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster. The team would then have 72 hours to either add him or release him.

Considering the Yankees’ rotation has already been heavily impacted by injuries – JT Brubaker (broken ribs) and Chase Hampton (Tommy John surgery) are also out – losing any more arms isn’t ideal, giving Carrasco a slight edge over Warren.

Of course, if Schmidt experiences any further delays, there could be room for both Warren and Carrasco.

Financial impact for Carrasco

Making the roster would be financially beneficial for Carrasco, who is guaranteed a base salary of $1.5 million if he makes the majors, with incentives pushing that figure as high as $2.5 million.

Sources indicate Carrasco would earn $150,000 each for making 12, 14, 16, and 18 starts; $250,000 each for making 20, 22, 24, and 26 starts; and $450,000 each for reaching 28 and 30 starts. He could also opt out again on June 1 and July 1, though that’s not an immediate concern.

Another shot in the big leagues would allow Carrasco to show he still has something left. The former Mets and Guardians pitcher posted a 5.32 ERA over the past four seasons but has shown improved performance this spring after tweaking his mechanics and increasing velocity over the winter.

Other injury updates

While Schmidt remains hopeful about his return, additional injury news emerged from Yankees camp on Monday.

According to MLB.com, Paul Goldschmidt left Monday’s game early with back soreness but stated he has no concerns about being ready for Opening Day.

Giancarlo Stanton (elbow/calf) has gradually increased his activity but will begin the season on the injured list. DJ LeMahieu (calf strain) resumed swinging and tee work, according to Aaron Boone.

Ian Hamilton (infection) threw live batting practice Monday and expects to be ready for Opening Day. Jake Cousins (forearm strain), however, won’t be available but has increased his throwing distance to 90 feet.

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