NEW YORK — The Yankees need starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodon had elbow surgery. Clarke Schmidt will miss significant time. The rotation has holes.
Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai seemed like a perfect fit. He won the Sawamura Award as NPB’s best pitcher. He posted a 1.92 ERA in 2025. He was available for a reasonable price.
But the Yankees never made an offer. And the reason why has stunned fans and insiders alike.
The Yankees saw Imai as a reliever, not a starter
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Yankees’ surprising valuation on Thursday. The team simply did not view Imai the same way other organizations did.
“The Yankees never made an offer for Japanese star Tatsuya Imai,” Heyman wrote. “They liked him as a reliever, while most teams saw him as a mid-rotation (or possibly No. 2) starter.”
That evaluation stands in stark contrast to the rest of the league. The Houston Astros signed Imai to a three-year, $54 million deal. They plan to slot him into their rotation behind Hunter Brown.
Imai dominated in Nippon Professional Baseball in 2025
The numbers tell a different story than the Yankees’ scouting report. Imai went 10-5 with a career-best 1.92 ERA for the Saitama Seibu Lions. He struck out 178 batters in 163 2/3 innings. His walk rate dropped to 7.0 percent, nearly half his career average.
He pitched eight innings of a combined no-hitter in April. He struck out 17 batters in June to break Daisuke Matsuzaka’s franchise record. He was a three-time NPB All-Star.
His fastball sits between 93-97 mph and can touch 99. His slider features unusual arm-side movement that generated a 45.7 percent whiff rate. Agent Scott Boras compared him directly to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Astros saw what the Yankees did not
Houston emerged as a surprise bidder one day before Imai’s posting window expired. The three-year deal includes opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. Escalators could push the total value to $63 million.
The Astros view Imai as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. They needed rotation help after Framber Valdez left in free agency. Imai gives them a durable arm who logged more than 160 innings in his final NPB season.
The Yankees paid Marcus Stroman $18.3 million in 2025. He pitched poorly and was left off the playoff roster. Imai’s first-year salary is $16 million. The comparison is unavoidable.
Questions remain about Imai’s arsenal at the MLB level
The Yankees are not entirely without justification for their view. Imai stands 5-foot-10. His fastball does not possess elite spin characteristics. His command has historically been shaky, though it improved dramatically in 2025.
There are legitimate questions about how his stuff will translate to MLB. The ball is different. The schedule is more demanding. He has never started more than 25 games in a professional season.
But those concerns apply to every Japanese pitcher making the transition. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga proved it can be done. Imai has the same opportunity in Houston.
The Yankees rotation has significant injury concerns
Gerrit Cole underwent Tommy John surgery and may not return until June. Carlos Rodon had elbow surgery and is also expected to miss the start of the season. Clarke Schmidt had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2026.
That leaves the Yankees thin on Opening Day. Luis Gil, Max Fried, and a collection of unproven arms will need to carry the load. Adding another mid-rotation starter would have made sense.
The team also missed out on Edward Cabrera. The Marlins traded the young right-hander to the Cubs on Wednesday. Options are dwindling.
The decision reflects the Yankees’ budget-conscious approach
Owner Hal Steinbrenner has made clear the team wants to reduce payroll. The Yankees have cut approximately $33 million from their 2025 commitments. Re-signing Cody Bellinger remains the top priority.
Passing on Imai fits that pattern. A $54 million commitment would have added to the payroll at a time when the front office is trying to trim costs. Viewing him as a reliever rather than a starter justified the decision.
The question is whether that valuation was accurate or convenient. Time will tell.
Imai’s unique slider has drawn comparisons to MLB stars
Scouts have compared Imai’s fastball approach to Joe Ryan of the Twins. Both pitch from low arm angles and attack the top of the strike zone. Ryan recorded more than 100 strikeouts on four-seamers alone in 2025.
Imai’s reverse slider is more unusual. It breaks to the arm side rather than the glove side. Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage features a similar pitch and found success in the majors last season.
The combination of a rising fastball and arm-side slider could play well against MLB hitters. The Astros are betting it will.
The Yankees may be proved right or wrong by 2027
Imai’s contract includes opt-outs after each season. If he dominates, he could re-enter free agency at age 28 or 29. If he struggles, the Astros are only committed for three years.
The structure benefits both sides. Houston gets a potential rotation piece at a reasonable cost. Imai gets a chance to prove himself with an opportunity for a bigger payday down the road.
The Yankees, meanwhile, will watch from afar. Their scouting department saw a reliever. The rest of baseball saw a starter. One side will be proven correct. For now, the Astros have the pitcher and the Yankees have questions about their rotation depth.
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