NEW YORK — The Yankees and Red Sox can spend Tuesday talking about starting pitching, old grudges and injured stars pushing for the Wild Card roster.
The opener at Yankee Stadium has enough marquee names. Cam Schlittler brings a 14-6 record and 1.95 ERA for New York. Boston counters with rookie left-hander Payton Tolle, who finished 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA.
The rest of the series is just as strong on paper. Max Fried and Gerrit Cole are lined up behind Schlittler. Boston has Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez behind Tolle. In a best-of-three series, every early run can feel larger than it would in July.
New York also owns home-field advantage after winning seven of 13 meetings with Boston. The Yankees finished 93-68. The Red Sox went 87-74 after rescuing a season that once appeared to be slipping away.
That is the obvious part of the matchup.
The truth sits behind those starters. Both clubs spent the season building elite relief units, and both arrive in October with important pieces missing. The series may ultimately come down to which manager can protect a lead after the starter leaves.
Two elite bullpens arrive with missing pieces
MLB’s final relief leaderboard shows how little separated them. Boston ranked first with a 3.00 bullpen ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .225 opponents’ average. The Yankees ranked second with a 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .226 opponents’ average.
Boston converted 46 saves in 60 save opportunities. The Yankees recorded 45 saves in 73 opportunities, a much larger number of chances that also exposed more late-inning volatility.
Yankees vs. Red Sox bullpen comparison, 2026 regular season
| Metric | Yankees | Red Sox |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.15 (2nd MLB) | 3.00 (1st MLB) |
| Bullpen WHIP | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Opponents’ average | .226 | .225 |
| Saves / opportunities | 45 / 73 | 46 / 60 |
| Relief innings | 574 1/3 | 602 1/3 |
| Closer | David Bednar: 2.58 ERA, 34 SV, 1.04 WHIP | Aroldis Chapman: 1.92 ERA, 35 SV, 1.12 WHIP |
| Top setup arm | Brent Headrick: 1.94 ERA, 92 K, 1.18 WHIP | Garrett Whitlock: 1.72 ERA, 59 K, 0.90 WHIP |
| Top pair combined | 2.24 ERA, 166 K in 140 2/3 IP | 1.82 ERA, 130 K in 104 IP |
| Key unavailable relief | Fernando Cruz: 3.13 ERA, 67 K in 54 2/3 IP | Tyron Guerrero: 3.10 ERA; Justin Slaten: 4.60 ERA |
| Starter-length relief | Carlos Rodon: 7-3, 2.67 ERA; Will Warren: 11-6, 3.92 ERA, 158 K | — |
Those season-long numbers no longer tell the whole story.
The Yankees lost Fernando Cruz when he was transferred to the 60-day injured list with a partial UCL tear. Cruz had a 3.13 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. Clarke Schmidt, who might have supplied middle-inning length, returned to the injured list with right biceps neuritis.
Boston has taken similar hits. Tyron Guerrero, who posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings, is out with a shoulder and lat strain. Justin Slaten is unavailable because of a right flexor injury after working 31 1/3 innings.
The Yankees’ announced Wild Card roster changes the way those losses have to be measured. New York chose only 10 pitchers and 16 position players, with Carlos Rodon and Will Warren included as relief options behind the three scheduled starters. David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, Brent Headrick, John Schreiber and Ryan Yarbrough round out the relief group.
Rodon and Warren change the Yankees’ bullpen math
New York’s most important bullpen reinforcement is not a conventional reliever. It is the rotation depth the Yankees no longer need to use as rotation depth.
Rodon finished 7-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 16 starts and a 1.89 ERA across his final seven outings. His last regular-season start was eight scoreless innings against Tampa Bay. Aaron Boone has already said Rodon will be available from the bullpen in the Wild Card round.
That gives Boone a left-hander who can enter before the traditional late innings and stay for more than three outs. If Schlittler, Fried or Cole is forced out early, Rodon can prevent the Yankees from immediately cycling through the softer part of the bullpen.
Warren gives Boone a similar option from the right side. He finished 11-6 with a 3.92 ERA, 158 strikeouts and 54 walks in 156 innings, making 29 starts in 32 appearances.
His final regular-season audition looked built for the role. Warren worked 3 2/3 scoreless innings in relief against Baltimore, allowed three hits, walked none and struck out seven. He generated 13 swings and misses, and his four-seam fastball averaged 94.5 mph, 0.8 mph above his season average.
Across three relief appearances, Warren logged 6 2/3 scoreless innings. His shorter assignments also removed a weakness that showed up as a starter: opponents slugged .558 the third time through the order, compared with .406 the first time through.
The effect is significant. Boone does not have to treat the sixth inning as an automatic relay race from middle relief to Headrick and Bednar. Rodon or Warren can absorb the middle of a game and reduce the number of vulnerable handoffs New York has to survive.
The numbers expose different pressure points
Boston’s late-game advantage is concentrated at the top. Garrett Whitlock finished with a 1.72 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Former Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman posted a 1.92 ERA, 35 saves and 71 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings.
Together, Whitlock and Chapman allowed 21 earned runs across 104 innings, a 1.82 ERA, with 130 strikeouts. That is the cleanest traditional late-inning formula in the series.
New York’s top pair had more volume. David Bednar and Brent Headrick combined for 140 2/3 innings, 166 strikeouts and a 2.24 ERA. Bednar finished with a 2.58 ERA, 34 saves and a 1.04 WHIP. Headrick posted a 1.94 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 74 1/3 innings.
The contrast is important. Boston has the sharper eighth-and-ninth-inning combination. The Yankees now have a different way to reach their own late-inning arms because Rodon and Warren can cover innings that would otherwise fall to the middle of the bullpen.
David Cone identifies the pressure point
Former Yankees pitcher David Cone believes New York may have one way to attack Boston’s strongest reliever.
Chapman has reinvented himself at 38, relying on a broader pitch mix rather than only the velocity that defined his Yankees years. Cone said the challenge is getting him out of rhythm in a hostile Yankee Stadium.
“Well, I think Yankees’ fans know with Aroldis Chapman, if you can get him distracted, and maybe he starts losing the strike zone a little bit, then maybe you can kind of push some buttons and light him up a little bit,” Cone said.
Cone also made clear this version of Chapman is different.
“But he’s as good as he’s ever been now. He’s a different pitcher, throwing more fork balls, sliders. He’s not the typical 105-mph gas he used to throw back in the day, but he’s pitching now and he’s a little more unpredictable,” Cone said.
If Boston can hand Chapman a clean ninth, the Yankees may get few openings.
Yankees have their own late-inning stress test
The Yankees still have alternatives behind Bednar and Headrick. Paul Blackburn finished with a 1.65 ERA in 81 2/3 innings overall, though two of his 59 appearances were starts. Ryan Yarbrough posted a 3.68 ERA.
Those numbers explain the tension. New York has options, but the quality drops once Boone moves past his most trusted late-inning relievers. The difference now is that he can use Rodon and Warren to avoid exposing that layer as often.
Headrick also showed one warning sign. His fastball averaged 92.9 mph in a Sept. 20 appearance against Arizona, more than 1 mph below his season average. His 74 1/3 innings were a career-high relief workload.
Boston faces a similar bridge problem before Whitlock and Chapman. Guerrero and Slaten combined for 72 innings that are no longer available. Jovani Morán finished with a 3.18 ERA, while Greg Weissert was at 3.26.
Neither bullpen is broken. Both are compromised in different places.
But New York’s final roster adds a variable the season-long relief leaderboard cannot capture. Rodon and Warren give Boone two multi-inning arms who spent the year preparing to turn lineups over rather than simply record three outs.
In a three-game series between teams with strong starters and thin margins, the club that handles the innings between the starter and the closer may survive. For the Yankees, Rodon and Warren can turn that bridge from the roster’s clearest vulnerability into one of Boone’s most flexible weapons.
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