New York — A group of MLB executives just delivered a verdict that should stun Yankees fans. ESPN polled 16 anonymous insiders on the biggest free agency questions of the offseason. Their answers painted a fascinating picture of New York’s plans.
The headline finding? Six of those executives believe the Yankees will sign Kyle Tucker. That was the most votes any team received for the four-time All-Star outfielder. But buried deeper in the results was something far more jarring.
Not a single executive predicted Cody Bellinger would return to the Bronx.
Yankees shock: Schwarber 7, Alonso 2, Bellinger 0
The poll asked executives which free agent hitter was most likely to return to his previous team. The options included Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Bellinger. Schwarber got seven votes. Bregman and Alonso each got two.
Bellinger? He got zero. Not one executive believed the Yankees would bring him back. That is stunning for a player who delivered a strong season in New York.
Bellinger hit .272 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI in 152 games for the Yankees in 2025. He posted an .813 OPS and provided versatility by playing all three outfield positions plus first base.
Yet the executives clearly believe the Yankees have their sights set elsewhere. The question phrasing matters here. Respondents had to pick just one player most likely to return to his team. That structure makes the zero votes logical but still raises eyebrows.
Yankees emerge No. 1 landing spot for Tucker
The same poll showed overwhelming support for the Yankees landing Tucker. Six votes went to New York. The Dodgers finished second with four votes. The Blue Jays received three. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore each got one.
Multiple executives explained their reasoning in quotes published by ESPN.
“I see it at $350 million over 10 years,” one exec said. “My prediction is the Yankees.”
Another agreed on the destination but not the price tag.
“I don’t think he gets to $400 million,” the executive said. “Seems to me the right number will be in the mid-300’s… but as we always say, it only takes one, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it ended up starting with a four. I think he ends up with the Yankees.”
A third executive offered a different structure.
“My prediction is that he will sign an Bregman-type deal with a shorter-term, higher AAV and opt-outs in hopes of having a monster season in ’26 or ’27 and hitting the market again coming off a better year,” the voter said. “The Yankees seem well positioned for a deal like that.”
Dodgers loom as biggest threat
The Yankees may lead the Tucker sweepstakes, but the Dodgers are not far behind. Los Angeles got four votes in the poll. Some executives believe the back-to-back champions could beat the Yankees.
“I think he does get there on a longer deal with lower AAV with opt-outs,” an executive said. “Hate to say it, but probably Dodgers.”
Another explained the Los Angeles fit.
“The Dodgers have need in the outfield,” the executive said. “Some of their hitters are getting older. They have everything they need on the mound. Now they need to help their offense.”
The Blue Jays were also viewed as contenders before signing Dylan Cease. Their $210 million deal with the pitcher on Wednesday likely reduces their spending for Tucker. That could clear a path for the Yankees.
Tucker vs. Bellinger comparison
Tucker finished 2025 with 22 home runs, 73 RBI, and 25 stolen bases in 136 games for the Cubs. A hairline fracture in his right hand impacted him during the second half. A calf strain cost him time in September. His .841 OPS was solid but below his usual standard.
The 28-year-old is expected to command a contract in the $350 million to $400 million range. That makes him far more expensive than Bellinger.
Bellinger offers versatility that Tucker does not. He can play all three outfield spots and first base. Tucker is strictly a right fielder. Bellinger is also 18 months older and comes with a smaller price tag.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees view Tucker more as a backup plan. Their priority remains a Bellinger reunion. But the executives clearly believe something different is brewing.
Mets and Dodgers could poach Bellinger
If the Yankees are chasing Tucker, Bellinger could end up with a rival. The Mets recently traded Brandon Nimmo to Texas for Marcus Semien. That move opened an outfield spot in Queens.
The Dodgers also need outfield help. Bellinger started his career in Los Angeles and won his 2019 NL MVP there. A return would make sense for both sides.
The Yankees cannot afford to lose on both fronts. They already watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets last offseason. Losing Tucker to the Dodgers while Bellinger heads to a rival would be a tough pill to swallow.
The executives poll also showed three votes for the Yankees landing Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai. That was the second-highest total behind the Giants. The front office appears to have multiple irons in the fire. The message from the insiders is clear. They expect the Yankees to make a major splash. But will Hal Steinbrenner’s budget match those predictions? That remains the biggest question in the Bronx this winter.
What do you think? Leave your comment below.
