The New York Yankees enter the 2025 MLB season with a mix of high expectations and unsettling skepticism. Despite assembling a roster laced with power, potential, and pinstriped prestige, the Bronx Bombers are not the consensus pick to win the World Series this year — and The Athletic’s annual expert poll makes that abundantly clear.
In a 2025 preseason prediction survey conducted by The Athletic, just three of 33 MLB writers chose the Yankees to win the American League pennant. Only one lone writer picked them to win it all. That’s a surprising lack of confidence in a franchise historically synonymous with October dominance — and it raises the question: Why isn’t the baseball world betting on the Yankees this year?
A rotation setback the size of a Cy Young
The biggest red flag flying over the Bronx is the loss of ace Gerrit Cole, who underwent Tommy John surgery in early March and is expected to miss the entire 2025 season. Cole, who finished first in the 2023 AL Cy Young race and remains the rotation’s anchor, is irreplaceable in both stature and stability.
“It’s a brutal loss,” said MLB insider Ken Rosenthal. “There’s no sugarcoating it. Gerrit Cole going down fundamentally changes the outlook of the Yankees’ pitching staff and, frankly, their postseason hopes.”
The Yankees still boast arms like Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, and Marcus Stroman, but each comes with either recent injury history or inconsistency. Relying on bounce-backs and mid-tier upside is a dangerous formula in a postseason race filled with flamethrowers and frontline talent.
According to The Athletic’s survey: “AL Cy Young Award vote totals: Garrett Crochet 10, Logan Gilbert 8, Tarik Skubal 8, Cole Ragans 3, Max Fried 1, Shane McClanahan 1, Bailey Ober 1, Hunter Brown 1.”
Judge still a big star, but not the poll favorite
While Aaron Judge remains the face of the franchise and is projected by FanGraphs’ ZiPS system to lead all position players in WAR in 2025, The Athletic’s panel wasn’t fully sold on his MVP chances. Only five writers out of 33 voted for Judge to repeat as AL MVP — a hesitation that speaks to larger doubts about the Yankees’ ability to deliver team success, not just individual brilliance.
Instead, the consensus among writers leaned heavily toward Bobby Witt Jr., who is coming off a dazzling 2024 season for the Royals and received 18 MVP votes. Judge’s immense talent is unquestioned, but concerns about his health, age, and the supporting cast around him seem to have clouded the picture.
“Instead, our writers are all-in on Bobby Witt Jr. who’s coming off his own elite season, one of the greatest ever by a shortstop,” The Athletic’s wrote. “Witt got 18 of 33 votes for AL MVP. Gunnar Henderson got three votes, and no other player — other than Judge — got more than two.”
Yankees’ roster brings promise but not proven
Beyond Judge, the Yankees’ 2025 lineup features pop and promise: Giancarlo Stanton is healthy (for now), Anthony Volpe is taking a step forward at shortstop, and Jasson Dominguez, the 22-year-old sensation dubbed “The Martian,” is set to open the season as the starting left fielder.
Domínguez even garnered three AL Rookie of the Year votes in The Athletic’s survey, coming in third behind Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe and Red Sox rookie Kristian Campbell. That’s no small feat — and a nod to the talent brewing in the Yankees’ pipeline. Still, Domínguez remains largely unproven over a full MLB season, and relying on young players to carry a contender is a risky bet.
About the Rookie of the Year race, it wrote:
“(Tigers pitcher Jackson) Jobe is a former third overall draft pick who made two regular season and two postseason appearances last season. His stuff is undeniable. Kristian Campbell, who made the Red Sox’s Opening Day roster and will likely start at second base, and Jasson Domínguez, who’s going to open the season as the Yankees starting left fielder, finished in second and third place in our predictions.”
Add to that the questions surrounding DJ LeMahieu’s injury, Giancarlo Stanton’s health, and continued inconsistency from the bottom half of the order, and you can see why some analysts are holding back from declaring the Yankees the clear-cut favorite.
Old rivals getting boost as new contenders
Perhaps the most revealing part of The Athletic’s survey was who the writers picked instead of New York.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were the most popular World Series pick, grabbing 14 votes. Even more surprising, the Boston Red Sox, a team that missed the postseason in 2024, received four votes to win the World Series and nine to win the AL pennant — triple the Yankees’ tally.
The Red Sox’s offseason haul of Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman signaled a front office ready to strike, and they’re viewed by some as the “surprise powerhouse” of 2025. As The Athletic noted, “All of those Red Sox votes, by the way, came from writers based outside of Boston.”
Then there’s the Texas Rangers, who got 11 votes to win the AL and are just one year removed from their 2023 championship. With a healthy rotation and a lineup anchored by Corey Seager and Adolis García, their upside looks tangible and tested.
Even the Orioles, Royals, and Mariners received more total votes for the AL pennant than the Yankees — a shocking reflection of how the league views the Yankees’ actual title chances, despite the name-brand and the payroll.
The wild card factor: Yankees can still flip the script
The Yankees are no strangers to preseason skepticism — and they’ve made a habit of proving doubters wrong. But the weight of expectations in the Bronx is unlike anywhere else. For manager Aaron Boone, the pressure to deliver in 2025 is already reaching a boiling point.
If the Yankees can tread water until the trade deadline, it’s entirely possible GM Brian Cashman will strike a blockbuster deal. Players like Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr., or even Sandy Alcantara could be midseason targets if the Yankees are in striking distance but still lacking that final piece.
In other words, the 2025 Yankees are unfinished business. But they need to survive the spring and early summer — without Cole, with unproven youth, and under the weight of public doubt.
Final thought: Counted out, not done
Only one writer picked the Yankees to win the 2025 World Series. For a franchise with 27 rings and a payroll north of $280 million, that’s borderline blasphemous. But the reasons for the snub are real: injury to a superstar pitcher, skepticism around young talent, and uncertainty in a brutal AL landscape.
Still, it’s only March.
As the season unfolds, no one should be surprised if Aaron Judge belts 50 homers, Jasson Domínguez becomes a Bronx phenomenon, and the Yankees’ rotation finds its groove. That lone vote for a Yankees title might look prescient by October.
In baseball, the best teams often aren’t crowned in March predictions — they’re forged through the grind of 162 games.
The Yankees still have every chance to be one of them.
What do you think?
