New Yankees deal to end up paying Devin Williams double the projected price
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Follow UsNEW YORK — Devin Williams heard the boos rain down from the Yankee Stadium crowd. He watched his ERA balloon past 10.00 in the early months. He lost his closer job.
Then something changed.
The New York Yankees are now back at the negotiating table with the reliever they seemingly gave up on. The numbers being discussed tell a story few predicted.
Talks that nobody expected
Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that “league sources” confirmed the Yankees and Williams’ camp “recently discussed the potential for a possible reunion.”
The 31-year-old did not receive a qualifying offer from New York. That freed him to negotiate with any team. At least 12 clubs have interest, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers and Reds.
Yet Bleacher Report’s Erik Beaston predicted the Yankees would land Williams again.
“Any one of those teams could end up with the former Brewer, but the Yankees have the inside track, one of the best players in the world, Aaron Judge, and a solid chance of returning to the postseason in 2026,” Beaston wrote. “That should be enough to lure him back to the most storied franchise in the game.”
What do the Yankees know that others might be missing?
Numbers behind Yankees’ Williams nightmare
The gap between Williams’ traditional numbers and advanced metrics is striking. His 2.68 FIP told a different tale than his 4.79 ERA. His expected ERA sat at 3.09.
Williams maintained an elite strikeout rate of 34.7 percent. That ranked in the 97th percentile among relievers. He posted his lowest walk rate since 2020 at 9.7 percent. The Yankees saw flashes of dominance throughout the campaign.
In August, he struck out 49 percent of batters faced. That was the fourth-best strikeout month for any pitcher with at least 40 plate appearances.
The two-time All-Star closed the regular season with 13 consecutive scoreless outings. He added four playoff innings against Boston and Toronto without allowing a run. That finish reminded Yankees brass why they traded for him.
So what went so wrong early?
When everything fell apart
Williams stumbled badly in the first two months. He allowed an 11.25 ERA over his first 10 appearances. Manager Aaron Boone removed him from the closer role.
The remainder looked much better. Williams posted a 3.83 ERA across his final 57 games. His home ERA of 3.69 contrasted sharply with a 5.93 mark on the road.
Bad luck inflated his numbers. He inherited six runners and allowed none to score. But he left 10 runners for other pitchers. Seven crossed the plate.
What the Yankees are willing to pay
According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, any offer for Williams to include a one-year, $10 million deal this offseason. That figure nearly doubles the Spotrac market value estimate of $5.7 million per year.
Why would any team pay almost twice what analytics suggests he’s worth?
Williams posted a career-worst 4.79 ERA across 62 innings pitched. The Yankees acquired him from Milwaukee last December in exchange for Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin and cash.
The surface numbers screamed disaster. But teams are looking deeper.
The market for Williams has created conflicting projections. Bowden’s $10 million one-year estimate sits on the lower end. MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $68 million contract.
“Williams had a wild spike in his ERA (4.79) in his one year in New York after a great run from 2020 to 2024 (1.70 ERA over 222 IP) in Milwaukee, in which his 7.6 WAR was second best among relievers in that span,” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote. “His underlying numbers were slightly worse in 2025 — his xERA was 2.29 in 2020-2024 and 3.07 in 2025 — but nowhere near as bad as what his ERA would have you believe.”
From villain to standing ovation
The reliever offered candid thoughts about his turbulent season.
“I kind of got the complete experience,” Williams said. “I started off bad. They’re booing me as I come out of the bullpen. And then in the end, I think against Toronto, they gave me a standing ovation as I’m coming off the mound.”
“It’s a unique place to play. It’s a special place to play,” he added. “They have a lot of history, a fan base that wants to win, and a fan base that is very passionate about their team.”
Why the Yankees need this deal
New York has concerns about its 2026 relief corps. David Bednar holds the closer job after a rough 2024 in Pittsburgh. Camilo Doval posted a 4.82 ERA after arriving at the deadline.
Williams finished his Milwaukee tenure with a 1.83 ERA across 235 innings. He won the NL Reliever of the Year award twice. His changeup, nicknamed “The Airbender,” remains one of baseball’s most unhittable pitches.
The Yankees paid Williams $8.6 million in 2025. A $10 million deal would represent a modest raise while the reliever rebuilds his value.
Teams are betting his down year was an outlier. His stuff grades out among the best in the game. His postseason redemption showed the elite pitcher still exists.
The competition is fierce. The Yankees must decide how much they’re willing to spend to bring the Airbender back to the Bronx.
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