Blunt analysis complicates Yankees’ Bellinger vs. Tucker call

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NEW YORK — The New York Yankees find themselves at a fascinating crossroads this offseason, torn between Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker.

Bellinger delivered a stellar 2025 season in pinstripes, proving his value both at the plate and in the field. On the other side looms Tucker’s superstar resume. The 28-year-old is presented as the Yankees’ true priority.

While financial implications add a layer of complexity, the Yankees’ history of settling for “Plan B” options haunts the possible choice.

Do the Yankees value the comfortable or do they chase the superior talent that could define their next championship window?

A recent assessment from The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner has stirred debate across the Yankees front office. The insider’s blunt analysis suggests that Kyle Tucker, not Cody Bellinger, should be the franchise’s top free-agent target this offseason. His report questions the Yankees’ loyalty toward Bellinger despite his strong 2025 season in pinstripes.

Insider makes Yankees case with brutal honesty

Kirschner’s argument leans heavily on the numbers. Over the past five seasons, Tucker has clearly outperformed Bellinger in nearly every offensive category. The 28-year-old Tucker has slashed .277/.365/.514 with 134 home runs in 661 games. By comparison, Bellinger has hit .251/.310/.436 with 102 homers across 651 games.

“The only category where Bellinger, 30, has been better than Tucker, 28, over the past five seasons is outs above average,” Kirschner wrote in The Athletic.

Bellinger’s 2025 campaign was undeniably impressive. He posted a 125 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR, 11 Defensive Runs Saved, and six outs above average — production that drew praise from Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.

“Certainly would love to have him with our team moving forward, but we haven’t had any of those discussions,” Cashman said. “I haven’t had any conversations with Scott Boras. Bouquets his way, without a doubt. He helped us on both sides of the ball, he’s a versatile player, and he was great in our clubhouse.”

The durability question nobody wants to discuss

While Tucker dealt with injuries throughout 2025, his production still outpaced Bellinger’s. A hairline fracture in his right hand and a calf strain limited Tucker to 136 games, yet his numbers remained superior.

The consistency gap between the two stars continues to widen. Tucker hasn’t recorded an fWAR below 4.2 in five years, while Bellinger has reached that mark only twice. His steep decline with the Dodgers after 2019 led to his non-tender in 2022.

A year later, Chicago traded Bellinger’s contract to the Yankees in exchange for pitcher Cody Poteet. That same trade indirectly helped the Cubs gain the financial flexibility needed to acquire Tucker. Cubs president Jed Hoyer noted how Tucker’s lone season in Chicago left an impression.

“Kyle had a good experience here,” Hoyer said. “He certainly enjoyed playing in Chicago. I think that Wrigley and our fans made a huge impact. But, ultimately, Kyle has a big decision. He’s earned the right to not only be a free agent but to be a coveted free agent.”

Why contact quality matters more than strikeout rates

Many Yankees fans celebrated Bellinger’s improved strikeout rate of 13.7 percent in 2025, his best since his MVP year. Tucker’s 14.7 percent rate was only slightly higher, but the broader picture favors the Houston slugger. Over five years, Tucker has struck out in just 15 percent of his plate appearances, while Bellinger’s mark stands at 19 percent.

“In addition to not striking out much, Tucker’s contact quality far exceeds Bellinger’s,” Kirschner emphasized in his report.

Tucker’s barrel rate over the past three seasons sits at 11 percent compared to Bellinger’s 6.7 percent. The difference in expected weighted on-base average is even larger — .388 for Tucker versus .321 for Bellinger.

Contact quality becomes increasingly vital as players age. Tucker remains among the league’s best in generating hard contact, while Bellinger has ranked in the bottom half for exit velocity in four of the past five seasons.

The uncomfortable truth about Yankee Stadium’s impact

Bellinger’s 2025 home-road splits highlight a concern for the Yankees. He produced a 152 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium but dropped to 97 on the road, suggesting the short porch in right field heavily boosted his numbers.

Tucker faced the opposite challenge. Wrigley Field suppresses left-handed power, yet he managed a 113 wRC+ at home and an impressive 156 on the road. In 2024, Tucker even outperformed Bellinger at the same ballpark when the latter was still with Chicago.

The Yankees have long understood this dynamic. Their trade talks with Houston in previous seasons reportedly centered on Tucker’s bat, even with defensive concerns. Their willingness to pursue Juan Soto for $765 million also reinforced the organization’s focus on elite offense over defensive metrics.

Money talks but history screams

Financial projections paint a massive gap between the two players. Tucker’s next deal could exceed $400 million, with Spotrac estimating $401 million over ten years and The Athletic projecting $429 million. Bellinger’s market, by contrast, may top out near $200 million depending on competition.

“As they age, Tucker’s offensive profile is less risky than Bellinger’s,” Kirschner wrote.

The Yankees’ track record with second-tier signings has haunted them during their extended championship drought. They signed Anthony Rizzo while the Dodgers landed Freddie Freeman. They opted for Marcus Stroman instead of pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Freeman remains one of baseball’s most consistent hitters. Yamamoto now anchors the Dodgers’ rotation. Meanwhile, Rizzo has transitioned into a broadcast role, and Stroman is again looking for a team.

Yankees’ Aaron Judge clock keeps ticking

Aaron Judge will turn 34 next season, and the Yankees know his prime years are limited. Finding a long-term offensive partner to support him remains one of the front office’s top priorities.

Premium hitters will be scarce before 2028, when players like Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Gunnar Henderson become available. Until then, Tucker ranks as one of the few elite bats on the market. His 143 wRC+ over the past five years ranks ninth in baseball, making him an ideal fit alongside Judge in the Yankees lineup.

Defensive versatility becomes the distraction

Bellinger’s ability to handle all three outfield spots and first base has value, particularly with Trent Grisham’s uncertain future. However, advanced defensive data tells a different story. In 2025, Bellinger recorded minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-1 Outs Above Average in center field. His best fit appears to be left field — the same spot prospect Jasson Domínguez is expected to occupy.

Tucker’s glove has also slipped. Over the past three seasons, he has 8 DRS but minus-5 OAA. Yankee Stadium’s wide left field is challenging for any defender, and neither player provides a flawless solution.

Yankees’ decision defines more than one roster spot

Kirschner’s analysis poses a deeper question about the Yankees’ direction. Should they reward Bellinger for his strong 2025 performance and clubhouse impact? Or should they pursue Tucker, the younger and statistically superior talent, who could anchor the lineup for the next decade?

The answer could define the Yankees’ philosophy for years. Playing it safe has not produced championships. Aggressive, forward-looking moves build dynasties.

For now, Yankees fans can only hope history doesn’t repeat itself. Too often, the team settles for the cheaper, more comfortable option while another club lands the superstar — and October ends with the same familiar disappointment.

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