The Yankee’s first order of business when the season ends needs to be the signing of their best player and de-facto captain Aaron Judge. This should be extremely obvious to anyone who is a fan of the Yankees and is reading this right now. However, there seems to be a legitimate debate within the fan base on this issue, so I thought it was important to fully explain why I believe Aaron Judge needs to be a Yankee for the remainder of his career.
Who Could They Possibly Replace Him With?
Let’s address the obvious first, he’s an outstanding player. Aaron Judge has proved himself over the last few seasons indispensable, providing elite performance on both sides of the ball. There is simply no replacement for him out there. Looking at the pending free agent right fielders, only two of them are younger than Judge will be when he enters free agency.
But to be fair, let’s compare Judge to the upcoming free agents:
Aaron Judge: .279/.387/.573 (entering age 31 season) Career OPS+ 158, 33.8 Career WAR (Baseball Reference), 32.7 Career WAR (FanGraphs), 207 Home runs. 2 top five MVP finishes, 4 all-star game appearances.
*Charlie Blackmon: .298/.356/.491 (entering age 36 season) Career OPS+ 113, 19.9 Career WAR (Baseball Reference), 20.0 Career WAR (FanGraphs), 207 Home Runs. One top-five MVP finish, 4 all-star game appearances.
Kole Calhoun: .244/.318/.422 (entering age 35 season) Career OPS+ 103, 14.8 Career WAR (Baseball Reference), 15.2 Career WAR (FanGraphs), 173 Home Runs. No MVP votes, No all-star game appearances.
Dexter Fowler: .259/.358/.417 (entering age 38 season) Career OPS+ 104, 19.4 Career WAR (Baseball Reference) 19.2 Career WAR (FanGraphs), 127 Home Runs. No MVP votes, and 1 all-star game appearance.
Joey Gallo: .201/.328/.474 (entering age 29 season) Career OPS+ 111, Career WAR 14.9 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 15.1 (FanGraphs), 173 Home Runs. No MVP votes, and 2 all-star game appearances.
Robbie Grossman: .246/.347/.377 (entering age 33 season) Career OPS+ 101, Career WAR 9.8 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 7.6 (FanGraphs), 77 Home Runs. No MVP votes, No all-star game appearances.
Mitch Haniger: .263/.337/.481 (entering age 32 season) Career OPS+ 125, Career WAR 14.9 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 11.3 (FanGraphs), 108 Home Runs. No top five MVP finishes, No all-star game appearances.
Nomar Mazara: .256/.315/.414 (entering age 28 season) Career OPS+ 90, Career WAR 1.1 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 1.9 (FanGraphs), 85 Home Runs. No MVP votes, No all-star game appearances.
**Wil Myers: .254/.328/.441 (entering age 32 season) Career OPS+ 110, Career WAR 12.9 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 14.2 (FanGraphs), 149 Home Runs. No top five MVP finishes, 1 all-star game appearance.
Joc Peterson: .234/.332/.465 (entering age 31 season) Career OPS+ 114, Career WAR 11.1 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 12.4 (FanGraphs) 166 Home Runs. No MVP votes, and 2 all-star game appearances.
**Stephan Piscotty: .255/.324/.430 (entering age 32 season) Career OPS+ 104, Career WAR 6.6 (Baseball Reference), Career WAR 6.3 (FanGraphs), 93 Home Runs. No MVP votes, No all-star game appearances.
* Player option for the 2023 season
** Club option for the 2023 season
When looking at the talent available next offseason, no player is even in the stratosphere when it comes to the production Aaron Judge provides. The best player who could be available is Charlie Blackmon and even his stats, while good, pale in comparison to what Aaron Judge has been able to do in his first 7 seasons. While the players available will probably be much less expensive than Judge, how much value could they add when most of the players have less than half the career WAR of Judge while playing more seasons?
There is also the possibility of making a trade for another right fielder. While there are a few very talented outfielders who may be available in the trade market, the fact that the Yankees did not gut the farm system to get Juan Soto, a true generational type talent, during this year’s trading deadline would lead you to believe Yankee management will not trade their top prospects in any trade. This would bring down the odds considerably that the Yankees would be able to acquire any impact type of player unless it was some type of big salary dump.
Judge Is Already a Historic Yankee
Judge in his first seven seasons is already doing things that only a few in Yankee history have ever accomplished. Judge in his rookie season hit 52 Home Runs (then an MLB record and still an American League record) obliterating Joe DiMaggio’s franchise record of 29. When he hits his next Home Run he will be only the third Yankee in history to have two or more seasons with 50 homers, the last since Mickey Mantle. Judge also is on pace for and has a legitimate chance to break Roger Maris’s Yankee record (and A.L. record) of 61 Home Runs in a single season.
Nobody knows how Judge (or any player) is going to age and how productive he is going to be when he gets older. However, if you look at what he can do when healthy we could be looking at a top 5 player in almost every offensive category and the possibility of being 2nd all-time in home runs. While this is just speculative on my part, it would make for one of the great Yankees of all time and a worthy member of the Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, and Mantle Mount Rushmore.
What will An Aaron Judge Contract Look Like?
I wasn’t sure at the beginning of the season, but I have no doubt now that Judge will become the highest-paid position player in the game. Right now, Trout is making an AAV of 35.5 million per year and I guess that Judge beats that by quite a bit. I do not, however, anticipate him beating Scherzer’s AAV of 43 million per year. Here is my guess for what the winning bid will look like: 8 Years at an AAV of 40 per year with a ninth-year option at 25. So that would be 8/320 maxing at 9/345. I believe that since this will be the only big contract Judge will be able to get due to starting at an older age, he will want to be guaranteed at least until the end of his 38 season. The option will probably be contingent on how many games he can play in the last few seasons or MVP voting or something to that effect. I think since Judge is going to be 31 when the contract starts there is almost no chance he gets a 10-year deal from any team unless he is willing to take a much smaller AAV.
This would be a huge commitment for any team to take on, but I honestly believe it makes the most sense for the Yankees. The most obvious reason is that Judge has already performed well here under enormous pressure. One of the biggest gambles when taking on a star from another team is whether they can get comfortable in a new market, many of whom have a hard time adjusting to a new environment, but obviously, this would not be an issue here.
Judge is also a marketing machine to the Yankees. Ratings on YES and ballpark attendance have had a massive spike this year not only because of the team’s torrid start in the first half of the season but also because Judge pursued the Yankee single-season home run record. The Yankees will be able to make money marketing an icon like Judge even if team performance is not good especially as he begins to climb his way up the Yankee’s all-time lists (as was proved by the last few years of Jeter and Rivera).
All in all, I truly think that Judge should be signed as soon as possible and should be a career Yankee. Players like judge come along once in a generation and there is no reason why the richest team in baseball should let theirs go for any reason!
What do you think, leave a comment below?
