NEW YORK — Before the first pitch of the 2026 season, FanGraphs gave the New York Mets a 79.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That was the third-highest probability in all of baseball, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Seattle Mariners.
Three weeks later, that number has collapsed to 41.5 percent. And it may keep falling.
The Mets entered Tuesday’s home opener against the Minnesota Twins with the worst record in Major League Baseball at 7-15, riding an 11-game losing streak that is the franchise’s longest since 2004. Their $370 million payroll, the second-highest in the sport, has produced nothing resembling a contender. It has produced the worst team in the National League.
The questions now are stark. Is this a rough patch that a talented roster can overcome? Or has the 2026 Mets season effectively ended before May?
How bad has it actually been
The numbers from the losing streak are difficult to look at directly. Over the past 11 games, the Mets have averaged just 1.7 runs per game, the lowest mark in the majors during that stretch. They are last in MLB in on-base percentage, last in slugging percentage and 29th in ERA. The score differential across the losing streak reads 62-19 in favor of opponents.
Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field may have been the most painful. The Mets carried a lead into the ninth inning, a rare moment of hope after nine straight defeats. Then closer Devin Williams blew the save. The Mets fell in extra innings. The streak reached 11.
Williams, one of the most accomplished relievers in the sport, was asked to explain a situation that had no easy explanation. He acknowledged the talent in that clubhouse while accepting responsibility for the team’s failures.
“It’s tough to explain,” Williams said. “This is one of the most talented locker rooms in the league.” He added: “It’s absolutely on us. He [manager Carlos Mendoza] doesn’t swing a bat, and he doesn’t throw a baseball.”
The main news: what history says about survival
The historical record is not encouraging. According to data compiled across the major league era, just three teams have ever qualified for the postseason after suffering an 11-game losing streak at any point in the season. The 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers endured an 11-game slide in September but had built such a large lead in the NL West that it barely mattered. The 1982 Atlanta Braves and the 1951 New York Giants also survived equivalent stretches, with the Giants famously advancing to the World Series on Bobby Thomson’s walkoff home run.
No playoff team has ever lost 12 in a row. The Mets now face that possibility in any given game.
Among all teams that have started a season at 7-15 since the major leagues expanded to 162 games, only about three percent have finished with enough wins to reach the postseason. The 1969 Miracle Mets are the most famous example of a team recovering from a comparably poor start, but that team had returned to .500 by game 36. To match that pace, this year’s club would need to win 11 of its next 14 games, which seems unlikely given how they are currently performing.
Soto missing, Lindor and Bichette struggling
The injury picture adds another layer to what is already a grim situation. Juan Soto, who signed a contract with the Mets worth more than $700 million before the season, has not played since April 3 due to a right calf strain. Soto is expected to return at some point during the current homestand, which runs April 21 through 30, according to manager Carlos Mendoza. His absence has exposed how dependent this lineup is on his on-base ability and power production.
The players who remain healthy have not filled the gap. Francisco Lindor, whose contract is worth north of $340 million, is hitting .205 with a .600 OPS. Bo Bichette, who signed a $42 million per year deal in the offseason, is batting .217. Carson Benge has a .435 OPS. The lineup has collectively produced at a level that would fit a fringe playoff team, not one with baseball’s second-highest payroll.
Lindor addressed the team’s response to a losing streak that has shaken the fanbase’s confidence and put pressure on everyone in the organization, including Mendoza.
“Eleven losses, that’s a lot,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after Sunday’s defeat. “Whether it’s in April or at any point in the season.”
Mendoza himself is under scrutiny. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns issued a defense of his manager Friday, saying Mendoza was doing a great job and putting players in a position to succeed. The Mets proceeded to lose their next three games.
The Yankees comparison Mets fans do not want to hear
The contrast with the crosstown rival New York Yankees is uncomfortable for Mets fans. While the Mets have been spiraling, the Yankees swept the Kansas City Royals and traveled to Boston holding a first-place tie in the AL East at 13-9. Aaron Judge has nine home runs. Ben Rice is one of the hottest hitters in the sport. The Yankees are not without concerns, but they look like a legitimate contender heading into a nine-game road trip against three strong opponents.
The payroll gap sharpens the story further. The Mets’ $370 million payroll dwarfs what the Yankees spent on free agents this winter. Yet it is the Yankees who sit in first place, who are hitting home runs in bunches and whose rotation is at least credible while their injured starters return. The Mets, with more money committed and more celebrated acquisitions, are fielding baseball’s worst team in April.
The Mets entered 2026 with a payroll roughly $120 million higher than the Royals and Red Sox combined. They spent the winter trading for ace Freddy Peralta and signing Bichette to overhaul a roster that had come within one game of the playoffs in 2025. The ambition was genuine. So far, the results have been a franchise-level embarrassment that has only amplified the Yankees’ standing as the better New York baseball team right now.
Owner Steve Cohen, who built his fortune in finance and made the Mets a big-spending organization to rival the Yankees and Dodgers, briefly posted on social media during the losing streak, saying he saw some green shoots. Those have not blossomed. His team has not won a game since April 7.
The upcoming homestand against the Twins, Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals represents the most favorable stretch of games the Mets will face for some time. If they cannot recover ground against that competition, the conversation shifts from playoff odds to the length of Mendoza’s tenure.
History says teams rarely dig out of holes this deep in April. The Mets are hoping to be the exception. The numbers say they probably will not be.
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