NEW YORK — Ben Rice enters the American League Division Series in a position the Yankees could hardly have imagined six months ago. The 27-year-old is no longer merely a useful left-handed bat or a matchup piece. With Aaron Judge out of the roster, Rice has become one of the hitters New York can least afford to lose in the middle of its October lineup.
His Wild Card Series made that clear. Rice went 5-for-9 with two home runs in the Yankees’ two-game sweep of Boston. He did most of the damage in the 9-0 Game 1 demolition at Yankee Stadium, going 4-for-5 with a grand slam and six RBIs. The six RBIs tied a franchise postseason record. He finished the regular season with 41 home runs, 97 RBIs and an .897 OPS, then carried the same damage into October.
Tampa Bay should not be a frightening matchup on the surface. Rice punished the Rays more than any other AL East opponent this season. In 13 games, he hit .356 with a .431 on-base percentage, an .889 slugging percentage and a 1.320 OPS. Seven of his 41 home runs came against Tampa Bay, along with 12 RBIs. No other Yankees regular enters this series with a cleaner season-long offensive record against the division champion.
That makes Game 1 especially important. The Yankees open Saturday night at Tropicana Field, where Tampa Bay went 55-26, against right-hander Drew Rasmussen. New York finished 2-5 there this season, and the Rays took seven of 13 overall.
With Gerrit Cole starting opposite Rasmussen and Judge’s roster status still unresolved, the Yankees may again need Rice to provide the swing that changes the game. Rasmussen also enters with a 16-5 record, a 2.67 ERA and 174 strikeouts, giving Tampa Bay a proven run-prevention anchor before the series ever reaches its bullpen.
Rice’s Rays dominance hides a Rasmussen problem
The problem appears only when Tampa Bay’s ace is isolated from the rest of the staff. Rice went just 1-for-10 against Rasmussen during the regular season, struck out five times and missed on half of his swings.
The one hit was a home run, so the matchup is not hopeless. But Rasmussen controlled Rice far more effectively than the rest of the Rays did, and he did it by attacking the part of Rice’s profile Tampa Bay has clearly identified.
Rasmussen threw cutters to Rice 41% of the time, well above his 27% cutter rate against left-handed hitters. He followed with changeups at 23%. Only 15% of his pitches to Rice were four-seam fastballs.
That is not accidental. Rice has been MLB’s most productive four-seam fastball hitter this season. Including the postseason, MLB’s Statcast analysis credits him with a .347 average, an MLB-best .855 slugging percentage and 17 home runs against four-seamers. His plus-25 runs created against the pitch also leads the majors.
Tampa Bay built entire plan around taking away Rice’s heater
Rasmussen’s approach mirrors the Rays’ broader strategy. Tampa Bay’s right-handed pitchers threw Rice 25% changeups and 21% cutters. Its lefties used changeups and sweepers 24% of the time each. Only 18% of all Rays pitches Rice saw were four-seamers.
That matters because Tampa Bay already leans into the exact pitch mix that can keep Rice away from his biggest strength. The Rays threw changeups 21% of the time this season, the highest rate in MLB, while their four-seam usage finished below 28%, among the lowest marks in the majors.
Rice has not been helpless against those alternatives. Baseball Savant lists him at .276 with a .414 slugging percentage against cutters this season and .286 with a .486 slugging percentage against changeups. He also owns a .970 OPS against right-handed pitching, sixth-best in MLB.
The challenge is that Rasmussen has shown he can sequence those pitches against Rice better than most.
Rice’s Red Sox breakout offers the counter
Rice’s wild-card performance also showed why Tampa Bay cannot simply assume the same plan will work again.
Both of his Game 1 home runs against Boston came on 97 mph sinkers, one from left-hander Erik Miller and the other from right-hander Brayan Bello. He also ripped a 110 mph double off a 99 mph four-seamer from Payton Tolle.
After the game, Rice described the approach he carried from the regular season into October.
“All the consistency that you had in the regular season, you’ve just got to carry it right over into the postseason,” Rice said.
That consistency now meets a pitcher who has already forced him to adjust.
Rice’s preparation gives Yankees a counter
Judge has seen the preparation translate into production and made clear how central Rice has become to the Yankees’ postseason hopes.
“He’s been incredible,” Judge said. “If we’re going to go anywhere and finish off what we want to do, Ben Rice is gonna be a big part of it.”
The Yankees believe Rice is unusually equipped to adjust because of how deeply he studies pitchers. Boone has described him as more analytical than most hitters in the way he processes pitch shapes, movement and opponent tendencies.
“He’s a little more analytical in how he processes the opponent and what they throw and what their specific pitches do,” Boone said. “He has a really good knowledge and idea of that, so he’s really good at developing his plan on a given night.”
Rice said that preparation goes beyond numbers. He studies video, movement profiles, count patterns and how pitchers attack left-handed hitters. That process now has a direct postseason test against the one Rays starter who repeatedly kept him from his preferred pitch.
“I want to see everything,” Rice said. “I want to see everything about the pitcher. I watch their outings. I look at how their stuff moves, how they throw, how they attack left-handed hitters, how guys are swinging at their stuff, and what their timing looks like. Anything.”
Yankees’ Game 1 offense could turn on one matchup
Rasmussen went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in four starts against the Yankees while holding New York to a .182 average and .495 OPS. That makes Rice’s at-bats more important, not less. The Yankees do not need another six-RBI night. They need him to disrupt the pitch plan that has worked.
If Rice can force more fastballs, punish a cutter in the zone or stay alive long enough to get into Tampa Bay’s bullpen, the Yankees gain an advantage from the hitter who already tormented the Rays for seven home runs this year. If Rasmussen again keeps him off the four-seamer and expands with cutters and changeups, New York’s hottest hitter could spend Game 1 fighting the one pitcher who consistently solved him.
That contrast makes Rice the Yankees’ most revealing offensive matchup when the ALDS begins Saturday.
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