Aaron Judge’s blistering start fails to shatter ESPN’s home run model

Follow Us

With four home runs already in the books just a week into April, MLB fans expect Aaron Judge to go after his record of 62 home runs in a single season. However, ESPN’s home run model is not impressed and predicts that the Yankees slugger would end the 2025 season with 54 home runs—four less than what he hit last season.

As the 2025 MLB season gets underway, Judge is once again reminding everyone why he remains the centerpiece of the New York Yankees franchise. The slugger is outpacing projections and reigniting MVP chatter across the league.

But ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently forecasted that Judge would end the 2025 season with 54 home runs—slightly down from his 58 in 2024 but still a figure that would place him among the league’s elite. And yet, based on what we’re seeing so far, 54 might prove to be a conservative estimate.

“Season prediction: Judge continues his historic stretch, clubbing 54 home runs with an OPS over 1.000 and putting himself in position to win his third AL MVP award in four years,” Castillo wrote.

That’s not just optimism—it’s a data-backed belief that the Yankees’ captain is operating at a peak few in baseball history have reached.

Judge’s home run history: A benchmark for power

Judge’s resume already speaks for itself. In 2022, he smashed an American League record of 62 home runs, finishing with a 1.111 OPS and clinching his first MVP award. Even in an injury-shortened 2023 campaign, he hit 37 homers in just 106 games before a freak toe injury ended his season prematurely.

He rebounded in 2024 with 58 home runs and a league-leading 22 intentional walks, proving once again that pitchers fear facing him—and with good reason.

“At one point, teams were pitching around him like peak (Barry Bonds) because he was hitting like peak Bonds — and he finished with a league-leading 22 intentional walks,” Castillo said. “It was arguably the greatest season by a right-handed hitter — and it wasn’t a one-off. Judge was nearly as good in his previous full season in 2022, when he blasted an AL-record 62 home runs with a 1.111 OPS and won his first AL MVP award. Then a random foot injury spoiled his 2023 season. Judge, who returns to right field this season, turns 33 in April. Father Time comes for everyone, but the 6-foot-7 superstar hasn’t shown signs of slowing down as his four home runs during New York’s opening series demonstrated.”

Now at age 33, Judge is healthy, locked in, and clearly motivated. He has homered four times already in the Yankees’ opening series—something he didn’t do last year when it took him 15 games to hit his fourth home run.

The Yankees’ window is shrinking, and Judge knows it

This season carries a sense of urgency in the Bronx. The New York Yankees, once perennial contenders, haven’t won a World Series since 2009. Their core is aging. Gerrit Cole, the team’s ace, is 35 and expected to miss most of the year following Tommy John surgery. Giancarlo Stanton, also 35, is playing through chronic elbow pain. And Juan Soto, who gave the Yankees lineup a temporary jolt in 2024, is now wearing another uniform after leaving in free agency.

That leaves Judge—not just the face of the franchise, but the heart of the offense.

The pressure is immense, and yet Judge appears ready to shoulder it. His power is not just elite—it’s game-changing. The Yankees’ hopes of reclaiming AL East dominance rest largely on his broad shoulders.

A start that signals something big

The early returns this season point to a hitter in complete control of his game. Judge’s swing looks compact, his plate discipline is as sharp as ever, and his barrel rate is once again among the league leaders.

He’s not just hitting mistakes—he’s punishing good pitches, too. His exit velocities are up, and he’s already homered to all fields, including a 453-foot blast into Monument Park.

The big question for the Yankees isn’t whether Judge will produce—it’s whether they can give him enough support to turn his MVP-caliber season into postseason success.

54 might be the floor, not the ceiling

Castillo’s projection of 54 home runs is based on several variables—age, health, and regression. Judge turned 33 this April, and history tells us sluggers tend to decline in their mid-thirties. But Judge, a physical outlier at 6-foot-7 and 282 pounds, has yet to show signs of wear—especially in seasons where he’s remained healthy.

In fact, if he continues at anything close to his current pace, Judge would flirt with the 60-homer mark again. And with the Yankees’ new emphasis on protection behind him in the lineup, teams may find it harder to pitch around him this year.

His OPS already sits above 1.100, and with more lineup consistency than in past years, his opportunities to drive in runs are only increasing.

What’s next for Judge and the Yankees?

The Yankees know time is not on their side. With Cole out, Stanton limited, and no World Series banner raised in 15 years, the pressure to win is mounting.

Judge, as always, remains laser-focused on winning. His individual stats, as eye-popping as they are, remain a means to a larger goal: bringing another championship to the Bronx.

Whether or not 54 home runs proves to be accurate, one thing is clear—Aaron Judge is not slowing down. If anything, he’s just getting started.

And for the Yankees, that’s both a comfort and a challenge. Because with Judge playing at this level, anything short of a deep October run could feel like a missed opportunity.

What do you think? Leave your comment below.

Follow Us