A rare superstar in the final contract year, Aaron Judge is eagerly watched by fans and analysts. All are aware that he rejected a $213.5 million offer but no one knows how much he evaluates himself. Unless the Yankees came up with an offer Aaron Judge finds too tempting, it is possible that the 2022 season would be his last in the Bronx. But the most famous MLB team can’t let the face of their game simply go.
Aaron Judge didn’t hit a home run in his first game, but by June 24, when he and the team agreed on a $19 million salary, he had 27 home runs. A few months later, Judge’s at-bats have been the center of attention for a different reason. He just broke Roger Maris’ record for most home runs in the AL with his 62nd home run. He has put on an offensive show like we haven’t seen since Barry Bonds.
When the 2023 season starts, Aaron Judge will be 31 years old. Teams are less likely to sign players to long-term contracts after they turn 30 because of what has happened in the past. Funny enough, Albert Pujols’s steep decline with the Angels was often used as an example.
At 6-foot-7, Aaron Judge is a great athlete who has helped the Yankees this season by playing well in center field when they needed it. Since 1947, only six 6-foot-5 or taller batters have had a baseline star-level 3-WAR season after turning 33. Mark McGwire’s was the best, which may have been helped by performance-enhancing drugs.
All of that will be on the table this winter when the focus is on Aaron Judge’s contract. The front offices will do what they need to do. They will look for bargaining chips to bring down the price of hiring the best home run hitter MLB has seen in decades, even though he just had a season that will be remembered long after the money is gone.
Aaron Judge has done a lot of good things on offense. He is having the best 162-game season since Barry Bonds. The slugger will have a 10-WAR season, which is an elite level that only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have reached while still playing.
Aaron Judge has his second straight season with more than 600 at-bats. This is more than or equal to 62 home runs, as well as the most RBIs, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and maybe even batting average in the league.
When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel asked a few MLB insiders to guess what deal will be made for Aaron Judge this winter, the answers ranged from $259 million to $375 million, with an average of 8.6 years and about $320 million.
This kind of player just doesn’t come out very often. If we lower the bar a bit, to seasons in which a batter had at least a 175 OPS+ and 9+ WAR, Alex Rodriguez is the last one to become a free agent the winter after. Even that one is a bit of a technicality since he got out of his contract after 2007 but quickly re-signed with the Yankees.
Before that, the winter of 2001–2002 had a similar fetch. Jason Giambi‘s second great season in a row for the Oakland Athletics blew our minds and got him a seven-year, $120 million deal with the New York Yankees. Like Aaron Judge, Giambi was 31 when he signed the deal. Bonds, who was 37 at the time, signed a five-year, $90 million deal to stay with the Giants after setting the all-time home run record with 73.
Before Aaron Judge, neither his dad nor the inner circle Hall of Famer he called his godfather wore pinstripes. But by going beyond Roger Maris and Babe Ruth, he is sure to get a place in the great pantheon of New York’s baseball.
Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenner family have an unstoppable machine that makes winning baseball teams, huge crowds of fans, and an unimaginable amount of money. Even if they lose Aaron Judge, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Most of the insiders ESPN polled thought Judge would go somewhere else. But the Yankees know what it means to be them in this situation.
Can the Yankees afford to let Aaron Judge go?
Aaron Judge is known for his home run total. But he commands so much more than that. He had a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown and batting title, excelled in center field, and swiped 16 bases. Judge is the first player in baseball to achieve 11 WAR status since Barry Bonds in 2004. When the rest of the Yankees’ roster faded over the last three months, Aaron Judge carried them single handedly.
Judging by the standards of baseball, Aaron Judge is now irreplaceable for the Yankees. He has a history of MVP-caliber seasons, even if he never duplicates 2022. A loss of the Judge in 2021 would be disastrous as well.
After 2022, New York’s outfield outlook consists primarily of Harrison Bader. After the World Series, Giancarlo Stanton will be used mostly as the designated hitter, and both Andrew Benintendi and Aaron Judge will become free agents. For the past several weeks, Oswaldo Cabrera, who is more suited to playing the infield, has been starting in the center field. But the outlook for the outfield is bleak without Aaron Judge.
There are a few good everyday outfielders in New York but nobody can match Aaron Judge. The Yankees would need to revert to their “Moneyball” ways in order to find a suitable replacement for him. To effectively replace Judge, the Yankees would need to improve at three or four other positions, much like the Athletics did when they lost Jason Giambi.
Beyond what happens on the field, there are also other factors. The number 99 Judge jersey has surpassed the number 2 Jeter jersey in popularity at Yankee Stadium. Tickets are sold for Aaron Judge and ad revenue is on the upswing because of increased viewership, which Judge does for television.
The Yankees offered Aaron Judge a contract extension worth $213.5 million this spring because they believed he could help the team generate significant additional cash. The decision to extend Judge will be motivated as much by business objectives as by baseball standards. Losing Judge to free agency would have detrimental effects both on and off the field. Both the team’s performance and financial success would suffer.
The Yankees can’t afford to let him leave in free agency, since his worth to the team goes much beyond his actual playing time.
Do you think the Yankees will go to any extent to keep Aaron Judge?
