Judge was -145 last week, a significant lead with more than two months left in the season. Judge was then -400 at BetMGM on Monday. On Tuesday, it increased to -450.
Using implied odds calculations, Aaron Judge currently has an 81.2 percent chance of winning the AL MVP. That’s huge, especially with so many games remaining and Shohei Ohtani still playing in the American League.
According to the oddsmakers, Judge’s latest hot streak has elevated him to a new level in the race.
Aaron Judge is a strong contender for the MVP award
MGM will suffer if Judge is named MVP. Due to his higher odds earlier in the season, he’s their biggest liability in that market. But the oddsmakers appear to believe it is unavoidable.
Judge has a lot going for him, despite Ohtani’s two-way brilliance. First and foremost, he appears to hit a home run almost every day. Occasionally, two. He has 43 home runs, which puts him ahead of New York Yankees 60-home run hitters Roger Maris and Babe Ruth. Judge is 24-for-52 with a .462 average and 12 home runs in 14 games since July 16.
This isn’t just a New York player getting a lot more attention than he would elsewhere, though the extra media attention doesn’t hurt Judge. There’s a reason he’s the MVP favorite. He’s having a fantastic season for the team that’s sweeping the AL East.
It’s difficult to imagine Judge losing if he hits 60 home runs for a 100-win Yankees team. A long-term injury and Ohtani are likely to account for the extra 18.8 percent from the implied odds in which Judge does not win.
Who is capable of catching Judge?
Ohtani is the only player who can realistically catch Judge if he stays healthy and at his current rate. That’s reflected in the odds. Ohtani, who was +110 a week ago, is now +375. The Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez is now 40-to-1. Everyone else has odds of 66 to 1 or higher.
In two months of baseball, anything is possible. Alvarez has the potential to have the best two months of his career, hitting more than 50 home runs for a very good Astros team. Perhaps Judge will go into a deep funk.
Voters supporting Ohtani’s undeniable value as a pitcher and hitter would be the only reasonable thing that could derail Judge. There is nothing wrong with voting for Ohtani in his prime any year. We’ve never seen anyone like him. He will continue to be a factor in the race.
But, in recent days, Judge has taken an unexpected lead in the MVP race. That’s what happens when you hit a home run every other game for a few weeks, especially when you’re playing in New York. It would be a huge shock if Judge did not win his first MVP award at the end of the season.
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