Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, after strong early-season performances, faced notable declines that raised concerns for the New York Yankees’ pitching rotation. The situation worsened with Luis Gil landing on the injured list due to back tightness. Given these setbacks, the Yankees have emphasized the need for their veteran pitchers to step up, both to compete for the American League East title and to pursue a World Series. Both Rodon and Cortes have acknowledged the challenge of mid-season adjustments, recognizing their importance for maintaining performance and overcoming slumps.
Recently, both pitchers have adjusted their strategies, particularly against right-handed batters, by increasing their use of changeups. This tactical shift has started to show positive results at a crucial time for the Yankees.
Nestor Cortes has also increased his use of the changeup, especially in August, leading to better results. Cortes faced challenges in July, prompting speculation about his future with the team. His fastball-cutter combination had been ineffective against right-handed batters, compounded by his sweeper being a less frequently used pitch against them. This limited pitch diversity led to hitters exploiting these pitches for damaging contact.
Cortes has notably allowed more home runs on his four-seam fastball this season, with 12 compared to 8 over the previous two seasons combined, suggesting hitters had become adept at capitalizing on this pitch. However, his recent outings have seen a rise in changeup usage against right-handed batters, resulting in two strong performances.
These adjustments by Rodon and Cortes highlight the dynamic nature of pitching strategies and the necessity of adaptation to maintain effectiveness in high-level competition.
Nestor Cortes initially struggled to implement his revised pitching strategy in a game against the Los Angeles Angels, with the poor results not fully explained by his pitch selection. Despite this setback, Cortes rebounded with two standout performances that notably improved his August statistics, lowering his ERA for the month to 2.89. Right-handed batters, in particular, have found it difficult to make solid contact against him during this period.
Before August, right-handed hitters had posted a .334 wOBA (weighted on-base average) against Cortes, a figure on par with Matt Chapman’s offensive output this season. Such high production from opposite-handed batters typically presents challenges for a starting pitcher’s sustained success.
However, Cortes’ increased reliance on his changeup has led to a substantial decrease in right-handed batters’ wOBA against him, dropping to .242 in August. This improvement parallels the adjustments made by Carlos Rodon, although the changeup’s effectiveness differs between the two pitchers. Both are employing a strategy of pitching low and away to right-handed batters, offering them a less familiar look.
Rodon’s Yankees redemption
Rodon’s season has been marked by significant fluctuations. Initially, his performance made him a doubtful candidate for postseason starts, but recent improvements have renewed his prospects. Despite an overall average season, Rodon’s recent outings have demonstrated a marked upswing.
In his latest game against the Colorado Rockies, Rodon showcased his potential with six scoreless innings, allowing just five of 23 batters to reach base. This effort has resulted in a 2.67 ERA over his last six starts. Unlike his earlier struggles, this period has been characterized by a high strikeout rate, with a 15% Swinging Strike Rate comparable to his peak years with the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants.
Rodon’s recent resurgence is attributed to targeted changes in his pitching approach, which have been pivotal in his return to form, offering a significant boost to the Yankees‘ rotation at a critical point in the season.
Carlos Rodon’s pitching strategy reveals a notable contrast in his approach against right-handed and left-handed batters. When facing left-handed hitters, Rodon relies heavily on a fastball-slider combination. Conversely, against right-handed batters, he prominently features his changeup, which moves toward his arm side and has proven to be highly effective. The changeup ranks second in both Stuff+ (129) and Whiff Rate (48.3%), reflecting the significant vertical movement that distinguishes it from his fastball.
Pitches that create vertical separation are typically more effective against hitters of the opposite hand, while pitches with horizontal movement are more beneficial in same-handed matchups. This principle explains Rodon’s preference for sliders against left-handed batters, which has enhanced his ability to generate swings and misses while reducing solid contact.
Rodon’s recent performance has improved notably in limiting damage on contact. His xwOBACON (expected weighted on-base average on contact) has shifted from significantly below the league average of .370 to inducing more weak contact. Over his last six starts, his Pitching+ has risen to 106, indicating a return to top form at a crucial juncture in the season.
These adjustments underscore the continuous process of adaptation and refinement that Yankees pitchers undergo to enhance their effectiveness, particularly when facing specific hitter matchups.
Yankees rotation members need to step up
Gerrit Cole seems to have regained his top form after a rough start to the season. However, the Yankees face challenges with their second and third starters, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, both currently on the injured list. Schmidt has already made a promising rehab start and is expected to return soon, but the Yankees may consider shifting one of these pitchers to a bullpen role upon their return.
This scenario could open opportunities for Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes to claim starting spots for the playoffs in October. Although their recent performances show improvement, their overall reliability remains a concern. Both Rodon and Cortes have been inconsistent this season, and the Yankees will need continued strong showings from them to feel confident in their postseason rotation.
Currently, Rodon and Cortes are performing at roughly league-average levels for run prevention. A strong finish to the season, with above-average ERAs and a solid number of innings, would be beneficial for the Yankees’ bullpen management. The team might also consider using Marcus Stroman in a bulk relief role and deploying Gil or Schmidt in high-leverage situations to enhance their pitching staff.
The Yankees’ success this season will hinge on their performance in August and September, as a strong finish could help them secure a top spot in the AL East and a potential first-round bye in the playoffs.
Although Rodon’s contract has not yet lived up to expectations and Cortes has not replicated his 2022 form, both pitchers still have a chance to become fan favorites. This situation is reminiscent of AJ Burnett, whose contract value was debated but who is remembered positively for his pivotal World Series performance in 2009. This suggests that postseason success can often overshadow regular-season struggles in the eyes of fans.
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