Yankees’ edge in rotation battle likely to be their World Series trump card
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Follow UsThe 1981 World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers turned on the brilliance of Fernando Valenzuela, whose pitching defined the series. That year, Valenzuela’s season began with a surprise Opening Day shutout, kicking off an extraordinary run of eight consecutive complete games. This feat contrasts sharply with the current trend in Major League Baseball, where complete games have become almost nonexistent through the first two months of this season. Valenzuela’s unique style—marked by his upward glance during the windup and a devastating screwball—ignited “Fernandomania,” a movement that particularly resonated with Los Angeles’ Mexican-American community, cementing a strong bond between the team and its fanbase.
With Valenzuela’s recent passing at age 63, his Game 3 performance in the 1981 World Series remains a career highlight. At just 20, in a season that saw him become the first player to win both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards in the same year, Valenzuela delivered his fifth postseason start in 17 days. The Dodgers were down 2-0 in the series, and Valenzuela, pitching on just three days’ rest, faced a must-win scenario.
Despite giving up four runs early, Valenzuela showed remarkable tenacity, silencing the Yankees for the remainder of the game. After the Dodgers took the lead in the fifth inning, Valenzuela finished the game with an astonishing 147 pitches, sparking a momentum shift that led to a Dodgers victory in the series.
As the Yankees head to Los Angeles—coincidentally on the 43rd anniversary of Valenzuela’s iconic performance—they prepare for their first World Series clash with the Dodgers since that unforgettable 1981 encounter. The game has evolved significantly since Valenzuela’s complete-game heroics, with such feats now a rarity in postseason play. The last complete game in the playoffs came from Justin Verlander in 2017 against the Yankees in the ALCS, and the last in a World Series was Johnny Cueto’s effort in 2015 for Kansas City against the Mets.
In today’s baseball landscape, Fernando Valenzuela’s iconic complete-game performance would likely have been cut short. The 2024 postseason statistics highlight this shift: of 76 starts, only two pitchers have exceeded 100 pitches, and just one has lasted into the eighth inning.
Still, starting pitching remains crucial in the 120th World Series, marking the twelfth matchup between these historic rivals. The Yankees seem to have the upper hand with a defined four-man rotation, while the Dodgers face uncertainty after relying on two bullpen games during the NLCS. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already acknowledged that Game 3 or 4 will be handled by relievers.
One National League executive sees the key to a Yankees victory as extending their starters’ innings and forcing the Dodgers to overuse their bullpen.
Both teams’ offensive strategies resemble the late 1990s Yankees—grinding at-bats, keeping runners on base, and wearing down opposing pitchers. This approach had lost some of its potency in recent years, as bullpens evolved into collections of power pitchers capable of closing games. However, even the best relievers face challenges. Since 2019, postseason data shows that hitters produce a .828 OPS when facing a reliever for the third time or more, leading to 21 home runs over 476 plate appearances. Examples of this include Juan Soto’s series-winning homer off Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis in the ALCS and Will Smith’s two-run blast off the Mets’ Phil Maton in Game 6 of the NLCS.
Yankees hold a clear edge in 2024
Scouts observing the Dodgers’ postseason performance have raised concerns about the endurance of their starting pitchers, particularly Jack Flaherty, who struggled in his last outing against the Mets. The Dodgers hope that the week-long break before the World Series will allow their rotation to recover in time.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s standout performance on June 7 against the Yankees, where he allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings, remains the highest Baseball-Reference game score ever posted by a Dodger in their 22 regular-season meetings with New York. However, his season trajectory shifted dramatically after his next start when a rotator cuff strain sidelined him for three months. Since returning, including three playoff outings, Yamamoto has been limited to a maximum of 73 pitches or five innings.
Similar restrictions have affected Walker Buehler, who is also capped at five innings per appearance. The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been severely depleted by injuries to key pitchers such as Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May.
While the Dodgers’ bullpen has proven its effectiveness, as evidenced by their success against the Mets, the Yankees’ strategy must focus on outlasting their opponents. To win, New York will need to force early exits from the Dodgers’ starters, putting more pressure on the bullpen. At the same time, the Yankees must extend their own starters’ innings to avoid overexposing their bullpen to Los Angeles’ potent lineup.
The series opener will be a key test of Gerrit Cole’s endurance, as the Yankees may need two strong outings from him. There are also looming questions about Carlos Rodón’s ability to go six innings in one or two starts and whether Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt can navigate the Dodgers’ lineup successfully while completing five innings each.
While modern baseball no longer requires 147-pitch complete games on short rest, as Fernando Valenzuela famously did—a feat that will be remembered throughout the series—Aaron Boone’s managerial edge may lie in getting more innings from his starting rotation. This could allow him to deploy his relievers more strategically, preserving their effectiveness for critical moments.
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