NEW YORK — The Yankees are constantly hunting for the next big thing on the trade market. They often ignore the diamonds sitting right in their own dugout. Last season, Ben Rice forced the organization to stop looking outward. The 26-year-old crushed baseballs in the middle of their lineup and demanded attention.
With Cody Bellinger’s contract negotiations at an impasse, the Yankees may already have their answer to the power loss. Rice doesn’t just represent a backup plan. His underlying numbers suggest he could be something special in pinstripes for years to come.
First base has been a revolving door for the Yankees franchise since Mark Teixeira‘s career ended. That’s a big reason the Yankees’ offseason shopping list didn’t include a star first baseman. They might already have one in house. The front office passed on this year’s first-base market, which featured big names like Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, Munetaka Murakami, and Kazuma Okamoto.
Rice’s breakout 2025 season turned heads
After splitting time between catcher and first base in 2025, the Yankees have seen enough. Rice earned the keys to the first base job permanently. He didn’t just survive his first full season in the majors. He thrived.
Rice posted a .255/.337/.499 slash line with 26 home runs and a 133 wRC+. That last number means he was 33% better than the league average hitter. His mark was only 3% lower than Kyle Tucker, a player about to command a $300 million contract.
The difference is team control. The Yankees have Rice locked up for five more years at a fraction of the cost. While the Yankees front office navigates a bloated payroll, having a middle-of-the-order bat making pre-arbitration money is the kind of advantage that keeps championship windows open.
The most unlucky hitter in baseball
If you thought Rice’s 2025 numbers were impressive, the underlying metrics tell an even better story. The Yankees slugger was actually robbed of a historic season. According to Statcast data, Rice ranked in the 97th percentile for both expected slugging and expected weighted on-base average.
His quality of contact was elite. Ben Rice pulverized baseballs. He ranked in the 95th percentile for average exit velocity and the 97th percentile for hard-hit rate. Yet his actual batting average of .255 lagged significantly behind his expected batting average of .283.
The reason for this gap borders on comical. Opposing defenders accumulated a +12 Fielding Run Value against Rice. That means they made more elite defensive plays against him than any other batter in baseball. He was effectively the unluckiest hitter in the sport.
Rice constantly hit scorching line drives right into the gloves of diving outfielders. If that defensive luck normalizes in 2026, his statistics are going to explode. A great season could turn into an MVP-caliber one for the Yankees.
A rare blend of power and plate discipline
Usually, young sluggers with this kind of raw power come with a swing-and-miss tax. Rice is a delightful exception to the rule. While he ranked in the 92nd percentile for barrel rate, he also showcased veteran discipline. He ranked in the 91st percentile for chase rate.
Rice doesn’t expand the zone. His 18.9% strikeout rate is well below the league average for power hitters. Finding a player who hits the ball this hard without striking out or chasing bad pitches is like finding a unicorn. The Yankees know they have a lineup staple for the next decade. The Bronx Bombers’ bet on their homegrown talent appears wise.
Defensively, the Yankees are willing to live with growing pains as Rice transitions to first base full-time. He played 370 innings at the position last year. He posted minus-2 defensive runs saved and one out above average. That’s perfectly serviceable given his offensive ceiling. If he can simply be an average defender, the value of his bat makes him an All-Star candidate for the Yankees.
Rice joins elite company with rare skill combination
The mix of power and contact that Rice displayed in 2025 is rarer than most realize. According to MLB.com analysis, only 12 hitters have achieved a qualifying season since 2015 where they ranked in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, and 60th percentile or better in strikeout rate. The Yankees first baseman stands among the game’s elite.
Rice is one of them. The others on that list include Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., David Ortiz, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, and Christian Yelich. Every player on that list other than Rice has made three or more All-Star teams. Five have won MVP honors. One is already in the Hall of Fame. The Yankees slugger is in elite company.
Rice also ranked among baseball’s best in blast rate, a Statcast metric that measures a hitter’s ability to square up a ball while swinging with plus bat speed. His 19.4% blast rate per swing ranked fourth in MLB in 2025, behind only Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Diaz. The league average was just 11.2%. The Yankees have found a gem.
Another encouraging sign for the Yankees organization: Rice maximizes his power by pulling the ball. His 25.2% pulled airball rate ranked 28th highest among 274 qualifiers. He slugged .884 on pulled batted balls. A total of 40 of his 58 extra-base hits and 20 of his 26 home runs came to his pull side. Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is tailor-made for this approach.
How Rice compares to Bellinger
Bellinger delivered a strong 2025 campaign for the Yankees. He batted .272 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI across 152 games. His 18 home runs at Yankee Stadium showed he fit the ballpark perfectly. But his contract demands have created an impasse with the front office.
The comparison between the two players reveals interesting differences. Here’s how their 2025 seasons stack up:
2025 Season Comparison: Ben Rice vs. Cody Bellinger
| Category | Ben Rice | Cody Bellinger | Edge |
| Batting Average | .255 | .272 | Bellinger |
| Home Runs | 26 | 29 | Bellinger |
| RBI | 65 | 98 | Bellinger |
| OPS | .836 | .847 | Bellinger |
| wRC+ | 133 | 128 | Rice |
| Exit Velocity | 93.3 mph | 88.3 mph | Rice |
| Hard Hit % | 56.1% | 37.9% | Rice |
| Barrel % | 15.4% | 7.5% | Rice |
| Age | 26 | 30 | Rice |
| 2026 Salary | Pre-Arb | $30M+ AAV | Rice |
The value proposition favors Yankees’ homegrown option
The numbers reveal something striking. Rice’s underlying quality of contact metrics crush Bellinger’s across the board. His exit velocity of 93.3 mph dwarfs Bellinger’s 88.3 mph. His hard-hit rate of 56.1% doubles Bellinger’s 37.9%. His barrel rate of 15.4% more than doubles Bellinger’s 7.5%.
Yes, Bellinger produced more counting stats in 2025. He played more games and batted in more favorable lineup positions. But Rice’s batted ball data suggests he’s capable of matching or exceeding that production if the luck evens out.
The cost difference is enormous. Bellinger’s camp reportedly seeks $36 million to $37 million per year over seven years. Rice will make a fraction of that for the next five seasons. That salary gap could fund additional roster upgrades elsewhere for the Yankees. The front office clearly sees the value in trusting their homegrown talent.
Projection systems may be underestimating Rice
Steamer projections currently forecast a regression for Rice. The system pegs him for a .247 average with 24 homers in 2026. But those computers are missing the context of his misfortune.
Positive regression is inevitable when you hit the ball as hard as Rice does. The defenders cannot keep making highlight-reel catches forever. When the luck turns, Ben Rice won’t just be a good story. He will be a superstar wearing Yankees pinstripes. The Bronx Bombers may have found their first baseman of the future.
The Yankees have a decision to make. They can chase Bellinger at premium prices or trust the homegrown slugger already in their clubhouse. Based on the underlying data, the smart money might be on the 26-year-old Dartmouth product who has already proven he belongs in the middle of a championship lineup.
Rice will enter 2026 as the least experienced first baseman in the AL East. The division already featured Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Diaz. It has now gained Pete Alonso and Willson Contreras. The pressure to deliver will be immense for the Yankees first baseman, especially if the team doesn’t bring back Bellinger or find a comparable replacement. But everything seen from Rice at the plate suggests he is up to the task.
What do you think? Leave your comment below.
