NEW YORK — Ben Rice came through in the biggest moment Sunday, smashing a grand slam in the 10th inning that carried the New York Yankees past the Baltimore Orioles 7-1. The 26-year-old catcher and first baseman has been one of the club’s most dependable bats during the late-season push. Still, advanced numbers suggest Rice should be producing even better results than what fans already see.
Numbers reveal remarkable bad luck for Rice
According to Statcast data, Rice owns the widest gap in Major League Baseball between his actual performance and what is expected based on quality of contact. The statistic used is Weighted On Base Average, or wOBA, which blends walks, strikeouts and batted-ball data to provide a fuller measurement of offensive performance than batting average or on-base percentage.
Rice has a .347 wOBA this year. His expected wOBA, calculated using exit velocity, barrel rate and launch angle, stands at .403. That 59-point difference is the largest in baseball, showing that Rice has consistently been on the wrong end of outcomes despite strong contact.
The deeper numbers highlight how well Rice is swinging the bat. His average exit velocity of 93.2 mph ranks in the 96th percentile across the majors. His hard-hit percentage of 55.9 percent is in the 99th percentile. Those figures show Rice is making elite-quality contact. The results just have not always reflected the process.
Recent surge powers playoff push
Despite the statistical misfortune, Rice has built a strong first full season. In 133 games, he is hitting .252 with 24 home runs, 62 RBIs and an .823 OPS. Over the last 10 games, he has turned it up further, hitting .424 with eight RBIs as the Yankees battle for the AL East crown. New York sits at 88-68, two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays with six left in the regular season.
Sunday at Camden Yards, Rice gave a complete demonstration of his ability. He went 4-for-5 with five RBIs. He tied the game in the sixth inning with an RBI single before blasting the decisive grand slam in extras.
Ben Rice 2025 season stats (through Sept. 22)
| Category | Stat | MLB Rank (1B) / Percentile |
| Games Played | 133 | 11th among 1B |
| Batting Average | .252 | 18th among 1B |
| Home Runs | 24 | T-12th among 1B |
| RBIs | 62 | 16th among 1B |
| OPS | .822 | 12th among 1B |
| Weighted On-Base Avg | .347 | 13th among 1B |
| Expected wOBA | .403 | Top 5 among 1B |
| Avg. Exit Velocity | 93.2 mph | 3rd among 1B / 96th pct. |
| Hard-Hit Percentage | 55.9% | 2nd among 1B / 99th pct. |
“It was awesome,” Rice told YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits after the game. “Such an important game for us, getting close to the end of the season, here. To come through like that, that was huge.”
His grand slam came off left-hander Keegan Akin and gave the Yankees three wins in four games at Baltimore. The victory trimmed New York’s magic number to three in the race for postseason qualification.
Manager sees star potential emerging
Aaron Boone has seen Rice grow from a young prospect into a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence. The Yankees manager believes Rice is only scratching the surface of his potential.
“I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power,” Boone told reporters Sunday. “He’s got the opportunity to catch, too. I feel like he’s done a good job and grown a lot there. But (he’s) grown a lot with experience at first base, too — experience behind the plate. I think (he’s) proving himself as a really formidable hitter in this league, too.”
Rice’s ability to contribute at both catcher and first base makes him even more valuable. Boone can move him around the field to maximize lineups. His progress with the glove, combined with steady production at the plate, has made him one of the more important players on the roster.
Fortune poised to turn in Yankees’ favor
Statcast suggests Rice is due for a correction in his results. A hitter who barrels the ball as frequently and as hard as he does usually sees the numbers climb. The fact that Rice has still put together a productive year while running into bad luck underscores how dangerous he can be when fortune starts to match performance.
That is a troubling prospect for opposing pitchers. Rice has already shown he can change a game with one swing. If the percentages shift in his favor, he could become one of the most impactful hitters in the American League.
The Yankees are entering the final homestand of the regular season with series against the Chicago White Sox and Orioles. Rice’s production at this level gives the lineup a major boost as New York eyes the postseason. Adding to the intrigue is the jersey Rice wears. He now dons No. 22, the number previously worn by Juan Soto. The connection feels fitting, as Rice is starting to develop into a feared bat in his own right, capable of delivering game-altering moments.
A rising force despite the odds
The statistical profile indicates Rice’s best days may still be ahead. His raw numbers are strong, but the underlying data suggests another level of production is possible. As the Yankees prepare for the final week of the season, they can take confidence knowing Rice has been excelling even when luck has worked against him. When those numbers begin to balance, his ceiling could be even higher.
For now, the 26-year-old is sticking to what he does best — making hard contact, driving in runs and helping his team win games. The results have been impressive despite the bad breaks. What happens once the luck finally evens out is the looming question. Based on the data, it could be something special.
What do you think?
