NEW YORK — Nobody saw this coming. Not the fans. Not the front office. Probably not even Trent Grisham himself.
The center fielder who entered 2025 as a bench player finished the year with a career-best 34 home runs. Now he returns to the Yankees on a $22.025 million qualifying offer. That represents a fourfold salary increase from the $5 million he earned last season.
The question facing the Yankees is simple: Was 2025 real? Or was it a mirage that will cost them dearly in 2026?
A breakout nobody expected
Grisham arrived in the Bronx as an afterthought. The Padres included him in the Juan Soto trade to shed salary. His batting average had fallen below .200 in each of the previous three seasons. His slugging percentage had not cracked .400 since 2022.
Then everything changed. Grisham slashed .235/.348/.464 in 143 games in 2025. He set career highs in hits (116), runs (87), home runs (34), RBI (74) and OPS (.812). His 129 wRC+ ranked among the best on the roster.
His 34 home runs ranked seventh among all outfielders. Only Aaron Judge (53), Juan Soto (43), Jo Adell (37), Riley Greene (36), Taylor Ward (36) and Byron Buxton (35) hit more.
The pull power transformation
The numbers reveal how Grisham reinvented himself at the plate. He has always been a fly ball hitter. Now he is a pulled fly ball hitter. That distinction matters tremendously for a left-handed batter at Yankee Stadium.
Grisham was one of seven left-handed hitters with at least 25 pulled home runs last season. The Yankees had three of those players. Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all made the list.
His pull rate has increased every year. It jumped from 38.5 percent in 2021 to 47.8 percent in 2025. Nearly one in four balls he hit was both pulled and in the air. That is the easiest recipe for home runs.
He also posted career highs in barrel percentage (14.2 percent), hard-hit rate (46.4 percent) and exit velocity (91.1 mph).
Cashman believes it is real
General manager Brian Cashman made the qualifying offer knowing there was a risk Grisham would accept. He did so anyway. That speaks to the organization’s confidence in the 29-year-old outfielder.
“He had a hell of a year for us,” Cashman said. “He was one of the big reasons why we had the level of success we did.”
Cashman also suggested that Grisham would have been the third-best outfielder available in free agency behind Bellinger and Kyle Tucker. He did not expect him to test the market.
“All the underlying information that leads you to believe, real or not real, it points to the real arrow,” Cashman said. “All the support information backs up that the changes he made are real and it should continue.”
Grisham’s defense remains a concern
The bat carried Grisham last season. The glove did not. He ranked in just the 32nd percentile among defenders with minus-2 outs above average. That represented a sharp decline from his Gold Glove caliber defense in San Diego.
Manager Aaron Boone expressed confidence that Grisham can bounce back defensively.
“I think overall you still watch him play the position, and you’re like, ‘Oh, that’s a real center fielder,'” Boone said. “I think it’s not unrealistic that he gets back to being more in line with that Gold Glove-caliber guy with better health, with just having a good offseason.”
The outfield picture takes shape
Grisham’s return solves one piece of the Yankees’ outfield puzzle. Aaron Judge will patrol right field. Grisham will handle center. The left field spot remains open pending a potential Bellinger reunion.
FanGraphs projects the Yankees outfield to combine for 12.3 WAR in 2026. That ranks first in baseball ahead of the Padres (11.6), Braves (10.5), Mariners (10.1) and Cubs (9.5).
Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones provide depth options. Giancarlo Stanton could also see time in the outfield when healthy.
A bet on himself paid off
Grisham could have tested free agency. He chose security instead. The $22 million guarantees him a substantial payday regardless of what happens in 2026. If he repeats his breakout, a massive multi-year deal awaits after the season.
“I think consistent at-bats help any player,” Grisham said during the season. “I would put most of it to the mental work that I’ve put in.”
The Yankees led the majors with 112 outfield home runs in 2025. They are betting that Grisham can help them do it again. At $22 million, the margin for error is slim. But if his transformation proves real, the gamble will look like a bargain.
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