ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The Yankees opened the American League Division Series without Aaron Judge and immediately saw how small their margin for error can become without their captain.
New York was held to one hit in a 1-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 at Tropicana Field. Drew Rasmussen carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Jonathan Aranda supplied the game’s only run with a third-inning homer off Gerrit Cole, and Bryan Baker closed it for his first career postseason save.
Judge watched from outside the active roster while continuing to recover from the right calf strain he suffered Sept. 16. The Yankees had also left him off the Wild Card roster against Boston, even as he pushed his rehab forward with live batting practice, hitting work and a gradual running progression.
The Yankees came close to changing course for the ALDS. Aaron Boone said there were times when he believed Judge would make the 26-man roster. New York discussed carrying him as a pinch hitter for the first two games in St. Petersburg, then trying to expand his role when the series moved to Yankee Stadium.
Boone ultimately chose more recovery time. The Yankees believe another uninterrupted stretch of hitting, running and baseball movement offers more value than forcing Judge into a narrow role before his calf is ready for the full demands of postseason play.
The decision creates a difficult next question. If the Yankees survive Tampa Bay, they will need more than evidence that Judge can swing. They will need confidence that he can run, stop, turn, react and handle game-speed movement before the AL Championship Series begins Oct. 12.
Judge’s status also carries extra weight after Game 1. Austin Wells’ eighth-inning double was New York’s only hit, and he was thrown out trying to reach third, ending the Yankees’ best scoring chance.
Boone values recovery window over limited role
Boone’s decision to leave Judge off the ALDS roster was not based on a lack of urgency from the player. Judge wanted to be active and was willing to contribute in a restricted role.
The Yankees manager instead framed the choice around what New York might need if its postseason run extends beyond this series.
“to win a World Series, I feel like this week is important”
The concern is movement as much as hitting. Judge has already progressed through live batting practice and additional hitting work. The Yankees also moved him from anti-gravity treadmill work to running in the outfield, but they have remained cautious about more demanding base-running and defensive movement.
That distinction matters with a calf injury. A hitter can look comfortable in the box and still face a different physical test when he has to accelerate, change direction or react instantly to a ball in play.
A different test could replace controlled work
One unconventional solution has now surfaced: give Judge a brief game-speed test in the Arizona Fall League before a possible ALCS return.
New York Post columnist Joel Sherman suggested Judge could join the Salt River Rafters, the AFL club that includes Yankees prospect Dax Kilby. The move would allow Judge to see live pitching and test his legs in actual games instead of relying only on controlled workouts and machine-fed at-bats.
The idea has practical timing on its side. The AFL opened Saturday, the same day the Yankees began the ALDS, and Salt River plays throughout the coming week.
Judge is an established major leaguer, so an AFL assignment would require league approval. Baseball, however, has approved similar postseason rehab arrangements before.
October precedent gives the proposal credibility
The strongest case for the AFL route comes from recent postseason history.
Jeff McNeil used the league in 2024 after fracturing his right wrist in September. With the Mets still alive, McNeil played two AFL games to see live pitching before he was activated for the NLCS.
Kyle Schwarber took a similar route in 2016 after missing almost the entire season with major left knee injuries. He played two AFL games before the Cubs placed him on their World Series roster, then started at designated hitter in Game 1.
The 2026 AFL also includes Giants reliever Randy Rodriguez on a rehab assignment, showing the league can accommodate established major leaguers.
Judge’s situation would be different from all three. His right calf directly affects acceleration, base running and outfield movement. That makes the quality of his movement at game speed as important as the quality of his swing.
AFL schedule creates a rare rehab lane
The calendar gives the Yankees an unusual opportunity if Judge reaches the next stage of his recovery.
Salt River has games scheduled Oct. 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10. The Yankees could play a potential ALDS Game 5 in Tampa Bay on Oct. 10, while ALCS Game 1 is scheduled for Oct. 12.
That overlap could give Judge competitive at-bats before another major league round begins. A game would also expose his calf to reads, starts, stops and turns that are difficult to reproduce in controlled work.
The Yankees first have to extend his calendar.
After losing Game 1, New York trails Tampa Bay 1-0 in the best-of-five series. Game 2 is Monday in St. Petersburg before the matchup shifts to Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.
For now, the Yankees are buying Judge time. If they buy enough of it, the Arizona Fall League could offer an unconventional way to determine whether their captain is truly ready to return.
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