SEATTLE (AP) — Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has overtaken New York Yankees star Aaron Judge in the American League MVP race while mounting a serious challenge to Judge’s AL home run record with 28 games left in the 2025 season.
Raleigh leads MLB.com’s panel of 37 experts with 22 first-place votes compared to Judge’s 15. This marks a dramatic shift from Judge’s early-season dominance when he held prohibitive betting odds.
The switch-hitting catcher reached 50 home runs on Aug. 25, becoming the first catcher in baseball history to hit 50 homers in a single season. He now sits 12 home runs away from Judge’s American League record of 62, set in 2022.
With approximately 28 games remaining, Raleigh needs to maintain a pace of roughly 0.43 home runs per game to break the mark.
Raleigh makes catcher history with 50th homer
Raleigh’s milestone 50th home run came against the Houston Astros. The blast broke Salvador Perez’s previous record of 48 home runs by a catcher. It also made him the first Seattle Mariner to reach 50 home runs since Ken Griffey Jr. accomplished the feat in 1997 and 1998.
“I think we’re seeing that he’s starting to set a bar nobody else has done this,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “That’s the newsworthy part. It’s getting to a point where you can’t compare him to anybody.”
The 28-year-old catcher has compiled a .282 batting average with 104 RBIs while missing just three games all season. His durability behind the plate has become a key factor in MVP voting, as he handles demanding catching duties that Judge never faces.
Switch-hitter record within reach
Raleigh needs just five more home runs to surpass Mickey Mantle’s switch-hitter record of 54 home runs set in 1961. His .999 OPS remains identical from both sides of the plate, showcasing remarkable consistency as a switch-hitter.
“Raleigh joined Mickey Mantle as the only switch-hitters with 50 homers in a season and became the eighth player in major league history to reach the half-century mark in August,” reports ESPN.
The 104 RBIs make him the first AL catcher with consecutive 100-RBI seasons since Thurman Munson accomplished the feat from 1975-77. World Baseball Network reports that no catcher in history has reached 10 fWAR in a season, with Buster Posey’s 9.8 in 2012 representing the current high.
Judge’s injury derails MVP campaign
Judge started the 2025 season with overwhelming MVP odds. He posted a .324 average, .439 on-base percentage and .669 slugging percentage through July. However, a late July elbow flexor strain sent him to the injured list for 10 games and fundamentally altered the MVP race.
Since returning from injury, Judge has struggled significantly. He has posted just a .210/.380/.403 slash line and has been limited primarily to designated hitter duties. His post-All-Star break performance of a .193 average and .744 OPS contrasts sharply with his typical September surges.
The Yankees captain currently has 47 home runs, putting him on pace for approximately 54-56 for the season. Judge’s inability to stay healthy and productive has opened the door for Raleigh’s MVP candidacy.
Can he surpass Judge’s AL record
Raleigh’s 50 home runs through 134 games puts him on pace with Judge’s 2022 record pursuit. The Mariners catcher is averaging 0.37 home runs per game this season, slightly ahead of Judge’s 2022 pace when he hit his record-breaking homer in game 155.
If Raleigh maintains his current production, he projects to finish with approximately 60 home runs. His recent hot streak suggests the record remains within reach. Raleigh has hit 8 home runs in his last 15 games, including multiple multi-homer performances.
September traditionally brings challenges for record chasers. Expanded rosters mean fresh relief pitching and teams potentially pitching around dangerous hitters. Judge faced similar obstacles in 2022 but managed to hit 11 home runs in September to reach his record total.
Raleigh’s advantage lies in his consistent approach from both sides of the plate and his team’s playoff positioning. The Mariners’ wild-card chase means opposing teams cannot simply avoid him, as they need wins more than preserving individual records.
Mathematical path to 62 home runs
ESPN projects Raleigh will finish “under 61 but not by much,” with most expert consensus settling around 58-60 total home runs. The timing mirrors Judge’s historic 2022 pace almost precisely, as Judge had 51 home runs after 132 games while Raleigh reached 50 in approximately the same timeframe.
Raleigh’s recent power surge includes back-to-back home runs on August 24 for his 48th and 49th homers. He leads MLB with a 39% pulled-air rate while maintaining a career-low 24.9% strikeout rate, suggesting improved plate discipline supporting his power numbers.
T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions make Raleigh’s achievement even more remarkable. His home-road split of 24-26 home runs indicates he’s overcoming significant ballpark disadvantages that Judge didn’t face at the more favorable Yankee Stadium.
Historic season transcends position
Beyond the home run chase, Raleigh has shattered offensive expectations for catchers. His projected 186 wRC+ would surpass Mike Piazza’s 183 from 1997 as the highest ever for a primary catcher. He also earned 2024 Gold Glove and Platinum Glove awards for his defensive excellence.
Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench has taken notice of Raleigh’s historic season. Bench told the Mariners star that “a player like you doesn’t come along very often” while offering hitting advice about situational approaches.
Former teammate Justin Turner influenced Raleigh’s evolution, advising him to “play to your strengths and understand that you are not going to hit a home run all the time.”
Team success boosts MVP case
The Mariners’ success amplifies Raleigh’s MVP candidacy. Seattle holds an AL wild-card spot with an 81.2% playoff probability according to current projections. The team’s postseason positioning gives Raleigh’s individual achievements additional weight with MVP voters.
Baseball analysts consistently emphasize the clean nature of Raleigh’s pursuit. Unlike the steroid-era home run chases of the late 1990s, this represents legitimate power development through approach refinements and physical maturation.
The final 28 games will determine whether Raleigh can capture both the AL home run record and MVP award. His durability advantage over the injured Judge, combined with his historic offensive production at baseball’s most demanding defensive position, has positioned him as the frontrunner in both races.
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