The Yankees’ 2025 season took a major hit when it was announced that ace Gerrit Cole would undergo Tommy John surgery, ruling him out for the entire campaign. Losing the reigning AL Cy Young winner is a devastating blow to a rotation already dealing with injuries, leaving fans and analysts questioning whether New York can still contend for a World Series title.
Despite the setback, oddsmakers and MLB insiders still see a path forward for the Yankees. While their championship odds have shifted, they remain one of the top teams in the American League. Here’s what the experts and betting markets are saying about the Yankees’ chances without Cole.
World Series and AL East Odds take a hit, but Yankees still in the mix
Before Cole’s injury, the Yankees were listed at +800 to win the 2025 World Series on DraftKings. That number has now dropped slightly to +850, keeping them behind the Dodgers (+290) and Braves (+750) but still ahead of AL rivals like the Astros (+1500) and Red Sox (+2000).
Their odds to win the American League pennant also dipped slightly, moving from +310 to +330, indicating that while Cole’s absence is a concern, sportsbooks still view the Yankees as a serious contender.
According to one oddsmaker at BetMGM:
“Losing Cole hurts, but the Yankees are built to withstand injuries. They still have a deep lineup and enough pitching to be dangerous in October.”
The AL East race remains competitive, but New York’s odds to win the division have remained relatively stable at +135, still ahead of Baltimore (+350) and Boston (+400).
Insiders say Yankees must rely on depth
MLB insiders acknowledge that the Yankees’ rotation is significantly weaker without Cole, but they also highlight potential solutions. Ryan Garcia of The New York Post noted that the Yankees’ biggest concern isn’t just replacing Cole’s innings, but maintaining stability throughout the season:
“People forget they paid him $162 million to be the co-ace alongside Cole. Now he has to step up and live up to that price tag,” Garcia said, pointing to Rodon’s importance in stabilizing the rotation.
Even without Cole, Garcia believes the Yankees still have quality arms that can keep them competitive. He expects Max Fried to be the top option if healthy, with Rodon playing a crucial role behind him. Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and Will Warren are expected to round out the rotation. While not as dominant as it would have been with Cole, Garcia argues that this group can still compete, particularly in a weakened American League.
One of the key names to watch, according to Garcia, is Will Warren. He has impressed in spring training, showing greater command, reducing waste pitches, and refining his changeup.
“Warren is attacking hitters more aggressively, reducing waste pitches, and has significantly improved his changeup. He could have a breakout season similar to Luis Gil’s in 2024,” Garcia noted, highlighting Warren as a potential difference-maker in the Yankees’ rotation.
While acknowledging that losing an ace like Cole is a major blow, Garcia remains optimistic about the Yankees’ chances. “The impulse is to say the season is over, but the weak American League and a still-competitive Yankees roster present an opportunity to make the playoffs and go on a run,” he said, reinforcing that the team still has a path to contention despite the setback.
The Yankees’ path forward
Despite losing Cole, the Yankees are still a playoff-caliber team—but their margin for error is much thinner. They will rely on their deep lineup, strong bullpen, and young arms stepping up.
One betting analyst from FanDuel summed it up:
“Cole’s injury makes them less of a lock, but if they stay healthy and their rotation holds up, they can still make a deep playoff run.”
The Yankees’ season now hinges on their ability to navigate the first half, hold their own in the AL East, and potentially add a reinforcement before the trade deadline. Their odds may have shifted, but they are still very much in the mix for a championship.
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