Aaron Judge is set to rewrite the AL home-run history this season. The latest prediction claims the New York Yankees’ slugger has a more chance of hitting No. 62 in Toronto.
The California-born player is in amazing form this season. After he hit his 50th homer in August, analysts started seeing him going for a record home-run haul in 2022. Since then fans are desperate want to know when Judge will hit No. 60, No. 61, and No. 62 homers and against which team.
After his home run No. 55, Ben Clemens of FanGraphs has developed a homer chart that shows the odds of Judge hitting his 60th home run. It gives him the best chance in Toronto, where the Yankees are set to play the Blue Jays on September 26, 27, and 28. It also predicts that the No. 61 and No. 62 homers have more chances at Rogers Center.
The latest prediction also reminds us that Judge has the second-best chance of hitting No. 60 in the last game of the series when Yankee Stadium hosts the Red Sox next week.
If Judge slows down at Fenway Park and in New York, he has to wait for the series against the Orioles at Baltimore in October to surpass Roger Maris’ 61-homer record.
As the action shifts to Boston, the Red Sox have a task to top Judge. But possibilities are more that he will reach 6o-mark before Toronto and break the record against the Blue Jays.
On his blog page, Ben Clemens wrote, “If you’re trying to see Judge’s 60th homer in person, should you still head north to Toronto? Indeed you should … The second-best series has changed, though. If you want to catch number 60 and can’t travel to Canada, your best bet is to buy tickets to Yankee Stadium for the subsequent series against the Orioles … If you’re headed to that series against the Orioles … you also stand a 17.1% chance of seeing an AL-record 62nd homer. But that series isn’t your best chance to see that particular milestone. Despite a solid Texas pitching staff and a tough ballpark for home runs, that series has one very obvious thing going for it: an extra game.”
Aaron Judge 60th Home Run Odds
| Day | Opponent | Home/Away | Odds of Hitting 60th HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | Boston | Away | 0.0% |
| 9/14 | Boston | Away | 0.0% |
| 9/16 | Milwaukee | Away | 0.3% |
| 9/17 | Milwaukee | Away | 1.0% |
| 9/18 | Milwaukee | Away | 2.2% |
| 9/20 | Pittsburgh | Home | 3.1% |
| 9/21 | Pittsburgh | Home | 4.2% |
| 9/22 | Boston | Home | 5.4% |
| 9/23 | Boston | Home | 6.3% |
| 9/24 | Boston | Home | 0% (rest day) |
| 9/25 | Boston | Home | 6.9% |
| 9/26 | Toronto | Away | 8.1% |
| 9/27 | Toronto | Away | 8.0% |
| 9/28 | Toronto | Away | 7.8% |
| 9/30 | Baltimore | Home | 6.5% |
| 10/1 | Baltimore | Home | 6.0% |
| 10/2 | Baltimore | Home | 5.4% |
| 10/3 | Texas | Away | 3.9% |
| 10/4 | Texas | Away | 3.5% |
| 10/4 (DH) | Texas | Away | 3.1% |
| 10/5 | Texas | Away | 2.7% |
Aaron Judge 61st Home Run Odds
| Day | Opponent | Home/Away | Odds of Hitting 61st HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | Boston | Away | 0.0% |
| 9/14 | Boston | Away | 0.0% |
| 9/16 | Milwaukee | Away | 0.0% |
| 9/17 | Milwaukee | Away | 0.2% |
| 9/18 | Milwaukee | Away | 0.6% |
| 9/20 | Pittsburgh | Home | 1.1% |
| 9/21 | Pittsburgh | Home | 1.9% |
| 9/22 | Boston | Home | 2.8% |
| 9/23 | Boston | Home | 3.8% |
| 9/24 | Boston | Home | 0% (rest day) |
| 9/25 | Boston | Home | 4.6% |
| 9/26 | Toronto | Away | 6.1% |
| 9/27 | Toronto | Away | 6.8% |
| 9/28 | Toronto | Away | 7.2% |
| 9/30 | Baltimore | Home | 6.6% |
| 10/1 | Baltimore | Home | 6.4% |
| 10/2 | Baltimore | Home | 6.2% |
| 10/3 | Texas | Away | 4.8% |
| 10/4 | Texas | Away | 4.5% |
| 10/4 (DH) | Texas | Away | 4.2% |
| 10/5 | Texas | Away | 3.8% |
Aaron Judge 62nd Home Run Odds
|
Day |
Opponent |
Home/Away |
Odds of Hitting 62nd HR |
|
9/13 |
Boston |
Away |
0.0% |
|
9/14 |
Boston |
Away |
0.0% |
|
9/16 |
Milwaukee |
Away |
0.0% |
|
9/17 |
Milwaukee |
Away |
0.0% |
|
9/18 |
Milwaukee |
Away |
0.1% |
|
9/20 |
Pittsburgh |
Home |
0.3% |
|
9/21 |
Pittsburgh |
Home |
0.7% |
|
9/22 |
Boston |
Home |
1.2% |
|
9/23 |
Boston |
Home |
1.8% |
|
9/24 |
Boston |
Home |
0% (rest day) |
|
9/25 |
Boston |
Home |
2.6% |
|
9/26 |
Toronto |
Away |
3.8% |
|
9/27 |
Toronto |
Away |
4.7% |
|
9/28 |
Toronto |
Away |
5.5% |
|
9/30 |
Baltimore |
Home |
5.5% |
|
10/1 |
Baltimore |
Home |
5.7% |
|
10/2 |
Baltimore |
Home |
5.9% |
|
10/3 |
Texas |
Away |
4.9% |
|
10/4 |
Texas |
Away |
4.9% |
|
10/4 (DH) Texas |
Away |
4.7% |
|
|
10/5 |
Texas |
Away |
4.6% |
Judge has hit 55 home runs so far. If you want to see Judge hit a home run during what is likely to be a historic season, here is the Yankees‘ remaining schedule:
|
Date |
Opponent |
Stadium
|
|
9/13-14 |
Boston Red Sox |
Fenway Park |
|
9/16-18 |
Milwaukee Brewers |
American Family Field |
|
9/20-21 |
Pittsburgh Pirates |
Yankee Stadium |
|
9/22-25 |
Boston Red Sox |
Yankee Stadium |
|
9/26 -28 |
Toronto Blue Jays |
Rogers Center |
|
9/30-10/2 |
Baltimore Orioles |
Yankee Stadium |
|
10/3-5 |
Texas Rangers |
Choctaw Stadium/ Globe Life Park |
Do you agree with it? Will Aaron Judge get his record in Toronto? Or, do you expect it to happen before? Leave your comment.
(Source: Ben Clemens of FanGraphs)
