NEW YORK — The New York Yankees’ playoff odds might still look strong on paper, but concerns are mounting across the baseball world that the numbers don’t reflect the reality on the field.
Veteran MLB insider Ken Rosenthal sounded the alarm during a recent appearance on Foul Territory, warning that mental mistakes, sloppy fundamentals and a worrying trend of inconsistency could send the Yankees spiraling out of playoff contention.
“Yes, the Yankees still look good for the playoffs,” Rosenthal said, “but I’m not even so sure that is secure the way they’re playing.”
Despite an 88 percent postseason probability from FanGraphs as of August 5, 2025, Rosenthal emphasized that watching the Yankees over the past few weeks reveals a team in regression.
“They’re looking at the fifth seed right now, and maybe the sixth the way the Red Sox are coming,” he said. “If you’re watching the games… I don’t know that you’re thinking a two-and-a-half game lead over the Texas Rangers is safe.”
Sloppy play raises red flags
The Yankees’ recent series against the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers has only deepened doubts.
On Saturday, Jazz Chisholm Jr. was doubled off first base in a crucial late-game situation after straying too far on a routine popup. That same weekend, catcher Austin Wells was caught off second base on a mental lapse that ended a rally.
These weren’t isolated cases.
Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe now leads the majors with 16 errors. He committed three in a single game against Tampa Bay last week. Derek Jeter, calling the game for FOX, didn’t sugarcoat the issue.
“They make way too many mistakes,” Jeter said. “You can’t get away with making that number of mistakes against great teams. You have to clean it up. It’s that simple.”
Yet the trend hasn’t changed. On Sunday, the bullpen unraveled in the ninth inning, allowing the Rangers to stage a comeback win that once again exposed New York’s late-game vulnerabilities.
Yankees offense has cooled off
Since mid-June, the Yankees’ offense has fallen flat. Before June 13, they ranked ninth in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position. Since then, they’ve plunged to 28th.
Aaron Judge’s recent return gives the lineup much-needed power, but the overall output has dipped. What was once a top-five offense has become middle-of-the-pack.
Sluggers like Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt have cooled after hot stretches, while inconsistency from supporting players like Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice has left the Yankees struggling to string together runs.
Rotation depth tested after injuries
The Yankees lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery in March and Clarke Schmidt to the same injury in July. They initially weathered the blow, with Max Fried and Carlos Rodon stepping up early. But both have come back to earth.
Over their last eight combined starts, Fried and Rodon have posted ERAs above 4.00. Rookie starters like Cam Schlittler have been forced into action but remain inconsistent.
While the Yankees made no major moves to replace Cole at the deadline, their internal solutions have yet to stabilize the rotation. Instead, much of the pressure has fallen on a bullpen that has begun to show cracks.
Bullpen shake-up hasn’t fixed problems
The bullpen posted the worst ERA in the majors during July. Luke Weaver, who began the season as one of the Yankees’ most effective arms, has pitched to a 6.19 ERA since returning from injury on June 20.
To address the crisis, general manager Brian Cashman made a flurry of trades. The Yankees acquired closers David Bednar and Camilo Doval, as well as right-hander Jake Bird, hoping to build a super-bullpen for October.
But the early results have been mixed. Bird surrendered the game-winning hit against Texas over the weekend, and Doval has yet to settle into a defined role.
Boone faces heat for lack of accountability
Former Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez joined the growing chorus of criticism, targeting Aaron Boone’s approach to discipline and accountability.
“If any of us made a mistake [like Jazz], we would be sitting our [butt] right on the bench,” Rodriguez said on FOX.
Under Boone’s tenure, few players have been benched for mental errors. Gleyber Torres was once called out for a lack of hustle, but the manager has generally avoided public discipline. That hands-off approach is now under scrutiny.
If the Yankees miss the playoffs, Boone’s job could be in jeopardy, despite the franchise’s long-standing reluctance to make in-season coaching changes.
Red Sox and Rangers on the rise
The American League playoff picture has shifted. The Blue Jays swept the Yankees before the All-Star break and now control the AL East. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have surged past New York into the top wild card spot, and the Rangers are closing in fast.
Texas bolstered its rotation by acquiring Merrill Kelly at the deadline. With a strong offense and a restocked pitching staff, they now sit just a few games behind the Yankees.
Even a slight slump could send the Yankees tumbling out of postseason position entirely.
Recent history shows path forward
There is precedent for a late-season rebound. Last year, the Yankees overcame a 10-23 stretch in June and July to win the division and reach the World Series. In 2022, they endured a brutal August (15-26) and still finished with a seven-game cushion atop the AL East.
Since Boone’s arrival in 2018, the Yankees have reached the postseason every year. Only the Dodgers and Astros have won more regular-season games in that span.
But urgency is rising
Still, this version of the Yankees appears more fragile. The roster is older. The injuries are more severe. The errors are piling up. And the competition is stronger.
Rosenthal’s warning cuts through the numbers.
“Absolutely,” he said when asked if the Yankees might miss the postseason. “They need to start playing better, and they need to start doing it quickly.”
Jazz Chisholm echoed that sentiment after the Marlins’ sweep. “We’ve been making mistakes for the last week and a half,” he said. “We know that’s not us. We know we’re a better baseball team.”
Despite current struggles, Yankees fans can find some comfort in recent history. Last year, Boone’s club endured a 10-23 stretch in June and July before winning a division title and reaching the World Series. The 2022 Yankees suffered through a 15-26 stretch in August but still won the AL East by seven games.
Since Boone took over in 2018, only Houston and Los Angeles have won more regular-season games than New York. During that span, the Yankees have captured three division titles and reached the postseason via wild card three additional times.
The clock is ticking on the Yankees’ championship window, and as Jeter warned, championship teams simply don’t make this many mistakes.
Whether that better version of the Yankees shows up in time remains to be seen.
What do you think?
