NEW YORK — It happened once. The Yankees are betting it won’t happen again.
Last winter, Juan Soto left the Bronx for Queens. Steve Cohen outbid Hal Steinbrenner. The Mets won. The Yankees lost.
Now another star outfielder sits on the open market. Another bidding war looms. And this time, the Yankees believe they have the inside track.
Something is different about this pursuit. There is a level of confidence coming from the Bronx that was missing a year ago. And one of the team’s biggest stars is pushing hard for the reunion.
The report that has Yankees fans exhaling
Jon Heyman of the New York Post delivered the news on Christmas morning. The Yankees are “pretty confident” that Cody Bellinger “won’t skip to Queens.”
That is a significant statement. The Mets have made it a habit of stealing players from their crosstown rivals. Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver and Devin Williams all left the Bronx for Queens this offseason.
Adding Bellinger to that list would be troublesome. He is the Yankees’ top priority. Losing him to Steve Cohen would be another embarrassing defeat.
But the front office believes it has a unique advantage. The player apparently wants to stay.
Aaron Judge makes his pitch
Heyman also reported that Aaron Judge is pushing the team to retain Bellinger. The Yankees captain has advocated for moves before. He pushed for the Alex Verdugo trade two years ago.
Judge’s voice matters inside the front office. He cannot force transactions. But his opinion carries weight.
Following the Yankees’ ALDS loss to the Blue Jays, Judge spoke to reporters about his hopes for 2026.
“Grish and Bellinger, two guys that had incredible years,” Judge said. “I hope we can run them back and see what happens.”
The Yankees already brought back Trent Grisham on a $22 million qualifying offer. Bellinger will be much harder to secure.
The stalemate that benefits the Bronx
Nobody has come close to meeting Scott Boras’ demands. That was the message from YES Network insider Jack Curry on the Yankees Hot Stove show.
“No one has come close, I don’t think, to the demands that are ongoing for Bellinger,” Curry said.
Bellinger is reportedly seeking a six-year deal worth $180 million. That comes out to $30 million per year. The market has not cooperated.
Michael Kay explained the holdup during the same broadcast. Kyle Tucker remains unsigned. Tucker is seeking 11 years and $418 million.
“Boras does not represent Kyle Tucker,” Kay said. “Boras wants to see what Tucker gets, and then he can slot in Bellinger after that. Until Tucker establishes a market, I think it is going to be slow.”
Why the Yankees believe Bellinger wants to stay
Empire Sports Media reported that people around baseball have gotten the impression Bellinger enjoys playing for the Yankees. If all offers are equal, the expectation is that he would return to the Bronx.
That matters. Scott Boras clients typically take the highest dollar. But when offers are comparable, player preference becomes the tiebreaker.
Bellinger spent his early career with the Dodgers. He was non-tendered and headed to Chicago. Now in New York, he appears to have found a home.
The Yankees led the majors in outfield production in 2025. Bellinger was a key reason. His swing is perfectly suited to the short porch in right field.
What Bellinger delivered in 2025
The numbers justify the pursuit. Bellinger hit .272 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI in 656 plate appearances. He posted an .813 OPS.
His versatility added extra value. He played 85 games in left field, 52 in right field and 41 in center field. He also logged seven games at first base.
Empire Sports Media projects him for a 120 wRC+ in 2026 if he returns to New York. Steamer currently pegs him at 116, but that number is expected to improve once it factors in Yankee Stadium’s dimensions.
The defense is elite. Bellinger owns plus-21 Fielding Run Value and plus-37 Defensive Runs Saved in the corner outfield over his career.
The warning signs the Yankees must heed
Empire Sports Media pointed to Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year, $162 million contract as a cautionary tale. Nimmo was traded three years later with $100 million still owed.
Bellinger turns 31 next July. His track record includes extreme highs and significant lows. The 2019 MVP dropped to a .193 batting average in 2021-22 before bouncing back.
The Yankees should focus on a four-to-five year deal, according to Empire Sports Media. The max offer should be around $28 million per year for five years.
If Boras demands a sixth year at the same rate, the recommendation is clear: move on.
The Mets threat that will not go away
ESPN’s Davis Schoenfield predicted Bellinger will sign a six-year, $180 million deal with the Mets. That projection has loomed over the Yankees all winter.
The Mets need outfield help. They traded Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil this offseason. Adding Bellinger would boost their roster and damage their rivals.
Steve Cohen has deep pockets. He proved that with Soto. The Yankees cannot assume they will outbid him.
But the Yankees have one advantage the Mets cannot match. Bellinger already knows the clubhouse. He already knows the fans. He already knows he fits. The Bronx blood runs through his family.
That connection might be the difference. The Yankees are betting on it.
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