Grisham’s market value jumps — will Yankees seize the early initiative?

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Contract year Trent? Grisham soars while the Yankees stay quiet.

Trent Grisham has gone from a forgotten piece in a headline-dominating trade to one of the most impactful players in the New York Yankees’ lineup. With a hot bat, elite defense, and a contract year driving him, Grisham’s breakout in 2025 has shifted the narrative from marginal bench piece to core contributor.

Now, the question lingers: Will the Yankees act early to secure his future, or risk letting a revitalized outfielder walk into free agency?

From Fourth Outfielder to Everyday Force

When Trent Grisham arrived in the Bronx in December 2023 as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade, he was viewed more as a defensive insurance policy than an offensive asset. His offensive numbers with the Padres — a combined .191 batting average over three seasons — painted the picture of a glove-first player with limited upside at the plate.

But that narrative has been obliterated by his torrid start to 2025.

Through 31 games, Grisham is slashing .292/.376/.640 with 10 home runs, 20 RBIs, and a staggering 187 wRC+, ranking fifth in all of Major League Baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. His 1.017 OPS is higher than any of his full-season marks, and he’s already matched or surpassed his 2024 home run total — in 90 fewer at-bats.

This isn’t just a hot streak — it’s a redefinition.

“He’s just coming up in big spot after big spot, making big plays in the field,” Yankees starter Max Fried said. “He’s been playing incredible and is a big reason why we’ve come away with so many wins.”

Boone’s gamble, Grisham’s reward

Manager Aaron Boone admitted this spring that he may have mishandled Grisham in 2024, limiting his opportunities and disrupting his rhythm. This year, Boone has prioritized giving Grisham more consistent at-bats, and the 28-year-old has rewarded that faith with power, patience, and poise.

“I just felt that what I was seeing was a really live player,” Boone said in March. “Every at-bat was quality. He’s controlling the zone and getting a lot of good swings.”

That confidence has translated into results — not only in the stat sheet but in the clutch. Seven of Grisham’s 10 homers have either tied the game or given the Yankees the lead. His two-run pinch-hit blast against Jason Adam on May 7, which tied the game against the Padres, encapsulated his knack for the moment and ability to stay mentally prepared off the bench.

The analytics back it up

Grisham’s surge is not built on luck. Statcast data confirms real, measurable improvements. His average exit velocity is up to 92 mph — the highest of his career — and his barrel rate has nearly doubled to 16.7%. He’s punishing fastballs, hitting .353 against them this season compared to .239 in 2024.

He’s also making better swing decisions. His chase rate has improved, his strikeouts are down, and his contact quality — measured through xBA and xSLG — shows that even with some expected regression, Grisham’s breakout is backed by sound process, not just hot streak variance.

Yes, his .320 batting average on balls in play suggests some favorable bounces. But even adjusting for that, a version of Grisham that hits .250 with 20–25 home runs and elite center field defense is a valuable commodity in today’s game.

Contract stakes rise

Grisham’s timing couldn’t be better — or more complicated.

He’s playing the 2025 season on a one-year, $5.5 million deal to avoid arbitration, with up to $250,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. After this season, he’ll hit free agency for the first time. If he keeps this up, the open market could treat him far more kindly than his previous stat lines would have suggested.

As of early May, Grisham’s projected market value, according to Spotrac and other evaluators, has ballooned to more than $34 million over five years. That number could increase if he maintains even 80% of his current pace.

For the Yankees, the choice is clear: extend him now, while the price is still digestible, or wait and risk bidding against a league-wide demand for elite defenders who can swing a bat.

A crowded outfield picture

The Yankees’ outfield is rich in talent — and question marks. Aaron Judge remains the anchor, but Giancarlo Stanton’s health is a constant concern. Cody Bellinger and Jasson Domínguez offer upside but come with variability. Grisham, once considered depth, has now become indispensable.

He’s played in 25 of the Yankees’ first 31 games, often as a starter but sometimes as a late-inning defensive sub. Boone has praised the luxury of rotating four capable outfielders. But Grisham’s performance may soon demand a permanent starting role.

That could create pressure to make a move — whether that’s shifting Bellinger to first base more regularly, giving Judge time at DH to protect his health, or reducing Dominguez’s role.

Redemption arc in pinstripes

Grisham’s journey has been anything but linear.

Drafted by the Brewers in 2015, he was a first-round pick with big expectations. He found defensive stardom in San Diego, winning Gold Gloves in 2020 and 2022, but never found his offensive footing. Injuries hampered his 2021 season. Trade rumors swirled in 2023 before he was packaged with Soto.

He entered spring training this year as a probable bench piece. Now, he’s a central reason the Yankees are leading the AL East.

“I think we’re finally seeing what he can be when he’s allowed to stay in rhythm,” said one Yankees front office official. “He’s been the best version of himself, and that’s a difference-maker.”

Yankees must decide

New York has made a habit of letting players walk and reacting later — sometimes too late. Two seasons back, Harrison Bader left in free agency after flashing promise. This time, they may want to get ahead of the market.

It’s also a test of Brian Cashman’s front office strategy. The Yankees have shown interest in maintaining flexibility, but as Grisham shows signs of sustaining success, flexibility may cost them long-term value.

The Yankees face a critical decision. Do they believe in Grisham’s resurgence enough to commit beyond 2025? Or do they wait, risking that another team swoops in with a long-term deal?

So far, Grisham has done everything in his power to make the case. His bat is booming. His glove is Gold Glove-worthy. And his value — both on the field and on the market — is soaring.

For a player once seen as a throw-in, Trent Grisham is now forcing the Yankees to look ahead. And if they want to keep him in pinstripes, the time to act is now.

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