Baseball Reference’s Yankees take provokes fans, logic questioned
![Esteban Quiñones](https://pinstripesnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Esteban-Quinones-2.jpg)
Esteban Quiñones
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- March 26, 2024
- 9:40 am
- One Comment
Table of Contents
In a surprising move that has stirred significant controversy among baseball fans and analysts alike, Baseball Reference, a leading source of baseball statistics and historical data, released its 2024 season projections for the New York Yankees. The projection, which places the Yankees last in the AL East with an estimated record of 72-90, has sparked widespread backlash due to its stark contrast with the team’s actual roster strength and recent performances.
Yankees fans don’t agree with Baseball Reference’s projections
Baseball Reference’s projection for the Yankees not only places them at the bottom of the AL East but also outlines a best-case scenario where the team barely scrapes a .500 record at 82-80, and a worst-case scenario plummeting them to 61-101. This projection came as a shock to many, especially considering the Yankees’ acquisition of Juan Soto, who alongside Aaron Judge, forms one of the most formidable batting duos in the league. The team’s fans have been vocal in their frustration, flooding social media with reactions that range from incredulous to outright dismissive.
Baseball Reference is projecting the Yankees to finish last in the AL East at roughly 72-90
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 26, 2024
With 90% confidence, they're predicting their best case record at 82-80, and their worst case record at 61-101 pic.twitter.com/BFHVqH7doj
Comments like “So they get the 2nd best hitter in baseball, but the best case scenario is they stay consistent to last season. Yeah, that makes perfect sense,” highlight the disbelief among the fanbase. Further amplifying this sentiment, another fan noted, “I can’t wait to prove baseball reference wrong,” underscoring a collective determination to see the team outperform these grim projections. Echoing these sentiments, one fan pointed out the inconsistency in the projections by reminding everyone, “They won 82 games with a worse roster last year lol,” which only adds to the bafflement over Baseball Reference’s predictions.
They won 82 games with a worse roster last year lol
— TheLandryShift (@TheLandryShift) March 26, 2024
Are they having 👨🏽⚖️ & Soto out for the year?
— Rob Féliz (@Robfeliz) March 26, 2024
LMAO 😂. I do think our pitching needs improvement BUT with our lineup (provided Judge, Stanton, Soto, Gleyber, Rizzo, Verdugo stays healthy, plus the Martian coming back AND spencer jones (if needed) we should be all good
— Kevin Masterkev (@KevinMasterKev) March 26, 2024
Bookmarking this for September
— Jacob P.M.🌔 (@JacobBSpeaks) March 26, 2024
Clarifying the Projection
In the wake of the controversy, MLB writer Mike Petriello stepped in to provide some much-needed clarity on the situation. According to Petriello, the projections that led to such an uproar are not as straightforward as they might appear. He explained that the alarming projection showing the Yankees potentially losing more than 90 games this year isn’t fully informed by the team’s current roster or recent acquisitions like Juan Soto.
There's a big aggregator account showing that b-ref projects the Yankees to lose 90+ this year, but that's not really how those numbers work. It doesn't know Soto is there or anything about the roster. It's just based on their last 100 (bad) games. pic.twitter.com/NkCTcvMxKv
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 26, 2024
Petriello highlighted a crucial detail that many may have overlooked: Baseball Reference’s playoff odds and season projections are derived from a complex simulation process. This involves running 1000 simulations based on the team’s performance over their last 100 regular-season games, incorporating a regression to the mean factor. These simulations do not take into account recent roster changes or player acquisitions, thus providing a skewed view of the team’s potential for the upcoming season.
![Aaaron judge and juan soto, players of the new york yankees](https://pinstripesnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/image-162.png)
Moreover, a tweet cited by Petriello contained a screenshot that shed further light on the methodology, stating, “MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs… This page does not update during the postseason.” This clarification suggests that the projections might not be reflecting the Yankees’ current strength, especially considering their significant roster improvements.
What do you think? Leave your comment below!
- Categories: Fan Reactions, New York Yankees, Opening Day 2024
- Tags: Fan Reactions, New York Yankees, Opening Day 2024
![Esteban Quiñones](https://pinstripesnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Esteban-Quinones-2.jpg)
Sorry, but projects in Spring Training is a useless endeavor, as are the meaningless indication of Spring records. I just simply ignore these things. Yankees will win more games 9-8, than lose 3-0. the full line-up is geared to score runs. even with a depleted rotation, all it has to do is be serviceable. I mean that will get them a playoff record. BUT, the rotation is not strong enough in any type playoff series. Then again, players determine the outcome not my or any other projection(s).