Analysts bet big on Goldschmidt to supercharge Yankees’ championship hopes

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After a disappointing 2024 campaign, Paul Goldschmidt has a chance to revitalize his career in baseball’s most storied venue. The New York Yankees are betting that the former MVP’s second-half resurgence last season was no fluke, but rather a preview of what’s to come in 2025.

The Yankees, having missed out on Juan Soto in free agency, pivoted to the veteran first baseman to address one of their most glaring weaknesses from last season. Yankees’ first basemen ranked last in MLB with a dismal .619 OPS in 2024, a black hole in the lineup that undermined the team’s championship aspirations.

“Goldschmidt also would have hit 25 home runs if he’d been a Yankee in 2024,” noted Bleacher Report analyst Zachary D. Rymer, highlighting how the 37-year-old’s power profile could benefit from Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. “A marginal improvement, perhaps, but it might underrate how well he profiles at Yankee Stadium. Power to right field is an underrated staple of his game, and balls that were outs in St. Louis in 2024 would have been homers in New York.”

Goldschmidt’s tale of two halves

Goldschmidt’s 2024 season with the St. Louis Cardinals presented a stark contrast between struggle and revival. Through his first 92 games, the seven-time All-Star posted career-low numbers, slashing just .237/.320/.344 with 13 home runs and a troubling .664 OPS. His strikeout rate ballooned to 28.2%, fueling speculation about age-related decline.

The narrative shifted dramatically over his final 62 games. Goldschmidt finished strong with a .270 batting average, nine additional home runs, a much-improved .799 OPS, and a 120 wRC+ that placed him 20% above the league average. Perhaps most encouragingly, his strikeout rate dropped to 23.6%, suggesting successful adjustments to his approach.

For the Yankees, the question isn’t whether Goldschmidt can recapture his MVP form, but whether his second-half renaissance can translate to consistent production in the Bronx.

Underlying metrics hint at upside

Despite his overall statistical downturn, Goldschmidt’s advanced metrics remained promising. MLB.com’s Brian Murphy highlighted key indicators suggesting the veteran has more left in the tank.

“There were signs last year that Goldschmidt can still be an impact player. His barrel rate (10.7%) and hard-hit rate (49.6%) remained stellar, and those rates were at 16.3% and 55.8%, respectively, over his final 30 games of the year,” Murphy wrote. “There seems to be plenty of life in his bat as he enters his age-37 season.”

These underlying numbers suggest that Goldschmidt’s production could see substantial improvement in Yankee Stadium’s more favorable hitting environment. His 22 home runs last season — his lowest total in any full season — could easily climb back toward the 30-homer threshold analysts believe is well within reach.

The fastball challenge

Not all projections for Goldschmidt are uniformly positive. His struggles against fastballs in 2024 raised legitimate concerns about his bat speed at age 37. Pitchers increasingly attacked him with velocity early in the season, resulting in an elevated whiff rate.

His ability to make adjustments throughout the season offers hope, however. After struggling mightily against heaters in the first half, Goldschmidt showed improved timing and approach against fastballs down the stretch.

The Yankees’ analytical team will undoubtedly focus on helping Goldschmidt continue refining his approach against high velocity, potentially through timing adjustments or mechanical tweaks to his swing.

Beyond the numbers

The Yankees’ investment in Goldschmidt extends beyond statistical projections. With a clubhouse featuring developing young talents like Anthony Volpe, Jasson Domínguez, and Austin Wells, Goldschmidt’s veteran presence brings valuable leadership and professionalism.

His track record as a four-time Gold Glove winner also stabilizes the Yankees’ infield defense, an area where they’ve struggled in recent seasons. Though no longer elite defensively, Goldschmidt remains reliable and fundamentally sound at first base.

The playoff boost

For both Goldschmidt and the Yankees, the ultimate measure of success will be October’s performance. The Yankees’ championship drought has stretched on longer than the franchise traditionally tolerates, while Goldschmidt himself has never won a World Series despite multiple playoff appearances.

Pairing Goldschmidt with Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger creates a formidable middle-of-the-order trio that could power the Yankees through the regular season and into the playoffs, where Goldschmidt’s experience in high-pressure situations could prove invaluable.

While financial terms weren’t the focus of initial reporting, industry analysts view Goldschmidt’s addition as a potential bargain. Following a down year, the veteran’s market value was likely depressed, allowing the Yankees to secure his services without breaking their budget.

If he produces even 80% of his career norms, Goldschmidt could represent one of the offseason’s best values, particularly for a Yankees team that has already invested heavily in pitching with the addition of Max Fried.

The 2025 outlook

The formula for Goldschmidt’s success in New York seems straightforward: stay healthy enough to play 140+ games, hit 25-30 home runs, maintain an OPS above .800, and continue making adjustments against high-velocity pitching.

While achieving these benchmarks won’t put him back in MVP conversations, it would transform the Yankees’ lineup into one of the American League’s most dangerous. Combined with an already strong pitching staff, such production could position the Yankees as legitimate championship contenders.

For a player who has built a potential Hall of Fame career on consistency and adaptability, 2025 represents both a challenge and an opportunity to prove that his second-half revival was no mirage, but rather the beginning of a productive final chapter in an illustrious career.

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