NEW YORK — He leads the majors in home runs. His Yankees own the best record in the American League. By almost any surface reading of 2026, Aaron Judge looks like an overwhelming MVP favorite.
The first official MLB.com poll of the season tells a more complicated story.
Forty MLB.com experts cast ballots this week. The Yankees’ captain topped the AL results. But the race behind him has real names in it. And buried in the voting are players no one expected to see on the same list as Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
How the poll works
The MLB.com MVP survey asked 40 experts to rank their top five players in each league. The format used a 5-4-3-2-1 point scale. First-place votes carried five points, second-place votes four, and so on down the line.
The poll is designed to project the full season, not just the games played so far. All statistics used in the balloting reflect numbers through Sunday, May 4.
A total of 40 different players received at least one vote across both leagues combined. That number signals just how much offensive talent has emerged in the early going.
Judge tops AL but the race behind him is crowded
Judge sits first in the American League poll. That comes as no surprise. Judge leads all of baseball with 14 home runs. The Yankees have gone 24-11. His pace projects to 65 home runs over a full season.
But the gap between the Yankees’ captain Judge and second place is narrower than Yankees fans would prefer. Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has forced his way into the conversation.
Alvarez has 12 home runs. He leads the AL in hits (43) and RBIs (27). His betting odds have moved from +900 to as short as +250 at some books. That reflects a genuine shift in how the baseball world is viewing this Yankees-Astros matchup at the top of the ballot.
Bobby Witt Jr. of Kansas City and Gunnar Henderson of Baltimore both received votes as elite young infielders who have been productive through the first five weeks.
The AL surprises: Rice and Trout in the same ballot
Two names farther down the poll stopped readers cold.
Ben Rice, the Yankees’ first baseman who is hitting .343 with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs in 33 games, drew votes from multiple panelists. At +2200 odds, he is the longest shot to attract genuine expert attention. Rice and Judge are also competing in the Yankees arena for long shots. He leads the majors in wRC+ and sits near the top of the AL batting title race. He is the quiet Yankees story inside the bigger Yankees MVP story.
Mike Trout’s name appeared on ballots. The three-time AL MVP has battled injuries for years. In 2026 he looks like the Trout of the mid-2010s. His .433 OBP ranks second in the AL. His .983 OPS would be his highest since 2022. He has 10 home runs. His return adds a name to the AL race that the Yankees would prefer stayed quiet.
Jose Ramirez of Cleveland also received votes, as did Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of Toronto.
The MLB poll’s main news: AL is close, NL is not
The most significant finding in the poll is the gap between the two leagues.
In the National League, Shohei Ohtani is a runaway. His odds sit at -370. In the AL, the Yankees’ Judge is at +140. Those numbers define the gap. Ohtani is a prohibitive favorite. The Yankees’ best player is a lean, not a lock.
The MLB.com expert panel reflected the same dynamic. The NL is settled. The AL is not.
Ohtani won back-to-back NL MVP awards in 2024 and 2025, both unanimously. He is chasing Barry Bonds’ record of four straight MVP wins. He has four total MVPs, two in the AL and two in the NL. Judge and the Yankees have watched Ohtani claim the NL award without contest for two straight seasons while the Yankees’ captain fights for the AL prize every fall.
NL surprises: De La Cruz emerging, Hoerner a quiet standout
In the NL, Elly De La Cruz of Cincinnati has drawn attention as the poll’s most compelling name after Ohtani. He has 10 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .349 on-base percentage that would be a career high. His 16 extra-base hits ranked fourth in the NL and his 72 total bases ranked fifth. He is the rare player who combines elite power and speed in a way that makes every count meaningful.
Nico Hoerner of the Cubs drew votes and was described by panelists as one of the most underrated players in the game. He entered the week hitting .301/.375/.466 with seven outs above average, which ranked fourth among all position players regardless of league. His WAR projection is tracking toward the kind of value that generates real award consideration.
Matt Olson of Atlanta also appeared in the NL results after a strong start to the season.
Judge’s case for a fourth AL MVP
Despite the competition, the Yankees’ Judge remains in strong position. He leads the majors in home runs. The Yankees are the best team in the AL. He is on pace for a historic home run total. He won his third MVP award last season after receiving 17 of 30 first-place votes, becoming the fourth Yankees player to win three MVPs alongside Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra and Joe DiMaggio.
A fourth award would be historic. But the poll makes clear that Alvarez is not conceding, Trout is a factor for the first time in years, and Yankees teammate Rice is making a case that cannot be dismissed. The first poll of the season is just a snapshot. But the snapshot shows the AL race is tighter than the standings alone suggest.
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