Aaron Judge at peak: 2024 shaping up as slugger’s finest in pinstripes

Aaron Judge is on the brink of MLB history, needing just two more home runs to become the fastest player to reach 300 career homers in terms of games played. With his current rate of 0.37 home runs per game in 2024, the Yankees captain is poised to break the record within the week, surpassing the existing mark set by Ralph Kiner.

Kiner, who held the record, required 1,087 games to hit 300 home runs. As of August 8, Aaron Judge has hit 298 homers in just 945 games, putting him on pace to exceed Kiner’s record by nearly three-quarters of a season.

This milestone highlights Aaron Judge’s remarkable performance. His career total might be even higher if not for the shortened 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At 32, the slugger is a frontrunner for his second MVP award in three years, with a .324/.459/.698 slash line, 41 home runs, and 104 RBIs in 113 games this season.

Aaron Judge’s power was particularly evident in a recent game against the Toronto Blue Jays, where manager John Schneider opted to give him first free pass since 1972 with two outs and no one on base in the second inning—an unusual tactic not seen from a manager in 52 years. This decision underscores the immense respect and fear the Yankees captain instills in opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider humorously admitted to intentionally walking Aaron Judge to avoid the risk of him hitting a game-changing shot. Schneider’s decision was notable for its rarity; even Barry Bonds, who holds the record for intentional walks with 688—including 120 in 2004—was never walked intentionally with two outs and nobody on base in the first two innings.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone playfully suggested that Schneider’s strategy should be dubbed the “Aaron Judge treatment,” noting that it exceeds the “Bonds treatment” in terms of its unprecedented nature.

Aaron Judge’s 2024 performance is outshining his historic 2022 MVP season, with improvements in several key metrics such as wRC+, OPS, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and walk rate, all while lowering his strikeout rate. Despite strong competition from Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge’s exceptional season has positioned him as the frontrunner in the MVP race.

Aaron Judge’s dominance is forcing opposing teams to employ extreme measures, showcasing his evolving role as one of baseball’s most formidable and respected hitters.

Aaron Judge moving toward another home-run milestone

The slugger’s 2024 season started on a rough note, with a .674 OPS, just four home runs, and a .178 batting average by April 27, sparking concerns about his performance. However, advanced metrics indicated that Aaron Judge’s struggles were largely due to bad luck with batted balls, suggesting a likely improvement.

Aaron Judge’s turnaround began on April 27 with a home run in Milwaukee, followed by another the next day. Since then, he has blasted 37 home runs in 84 games, a pace that would project to 70 homers over a full 162-game season. Despite his slow start, the Yankees captain is still on pace for 59 home runs this year.

His remarkable performance over the past three months has fueled speculation about how high his home run total could have been without his early-season slump. Aaron Judge currently leads the majors with 41 home runs, eight ahead of Shohei Ohtani and nine more than Anthony Santander, who is second in the American League.

Aaron Judge boasts the best swing-to-hit rate

Aaron Judge hits a home run once every 20.5 swings, 26% more frequently than any other top home run hitter.

	Home Runs	Swings	Swings per HR
Aaron Judge, Yankees	41	839	20.5
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers	34	933	27.4
Marcell Ozuna, Braves	32	930	29.1
Anthony Santander, Orioles	32	936	29.3
Jose Ramirez, Guardians	29	920	31.7
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles	29	891	30.7

The turning point in Aaron Judge’s 2024

Aaron Judge’s 2024 season has been exceptional, even surpassing his own high standards. This is particularly notable given that he set an American League record with 62 home runs just two years ago. His current stats—batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS+—are all at career highs. This is even more impressive considering that the Yankees‘ cleanup hitters behind him have a collective batting average of just .217, the lowest in team history.

In his last 18 games, Aaron Judge has been extraordinarily consistent, reaching base 54 times through a mix of walks, hits, and being hit by pitches. His slash line during this stretch is a stellar .424/.614/.915.

On May 5, Aaron Judge faced Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal in the first inning with a batting line of .209/.340/.403 over his first 35 games. Realizing a change was needed, he adjusted his stance by moving his front foot closer to the plate, transitioning from a wide-open stance to a more neutral position.

The immediate impact of this adjustment was notable. Aaron Judge launched a 97-mph fastball from Skubal into right field for a home run. Over the next two weeks, the slugger fine-tuned his stance further, moving his front foot even closer to the plate. By May 19, his stance had become fully neutral.

Photographic evidence captures this transformation: from the initial wide-open stance on Opening Day to the more neutral stance adopted by May 5. This adjustment has sparked a remarkable 76-game stretch, during which Aaron Judge has reached base over half the time and maintained a slugging percentage exceeding .800, marking one of the most impressive periods in baseball history.

	Games	Home Runs	Average	OBP	Slugging
Aaron Judge Before May 5	35	6	0.209	0.34	0.403
Since	76	35	0.376	0.509	0.846

Aaron Judge powers Yankees’ first innings

Aaron Judge has tied Babe Ruth‘s franchise record for first-inning home runs in a single season, with 16 homers so far this year. He expressed amazement at being mentioned alongside such iconic players, calling the achievement surreal and humbling.

This milestone is particularly notable as Aaron Judge’s 16 first-inning home runs exceed the total for several teams, including the Blue Jays, Athletics, Pirates, Guardians, Royals, Rockies, Brewers, Giants, Nationals, Mets, and White Sox.

He is now eyeing another record: with just three more first-inning homers, he could break the MLB record of 18 set by Alex Rodriguez in 2001.

Aaron Judge in .600/600 Club

With his home run on Saturday, Aaron Judge raised his career slugging percentage to .600, becoming just the 10th player in MLB history to achieve this mark in their first 946 games. The others on this prestigious list include Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Chuck Klein, Todd Helton, and Joe DiMaggio.

The list narrows further when considering players who have also accumulated 600 walks in their first 946 games, making Aaron Judge’s achievement even more notable.

.600 SLG and 600 BB Through 946 Career Games
	Slugging	Base on Balls
Babe Ruth	0.705	737
Ted Williams	0.649	868
Lou Gehrig	0.638	607
Aaron Judge	0.6	652

Is he the best hitter in the world?

Aaron Judge’s OPS+ was 210 in 2022 and has risen to 219 this year. If he maintains this level, he will join an exclusive group of six players who have had two or more seasons with an OPS+ of 210 or higher, indicating performance that is more than twice as effective as the average hitter of his era.

Most Qualified Seasons with OPS+ of 210 or Greater (Min. 100 games)
	Seasons
1. Babe Ruth	9
T-2. Ted Williams	4
T-2. Barry Bonds	4
T-4. Aaron Judge	2
T-4. Mickey Mantle	2
T-4. Rogers Hornsby	2

In the 2024 MLB season, Juan Soto posted an impressive 189 wRC+, marking his best full-season performance and placing him second in the league. However, Aaron Judge has outdone Soto with a remarkable 216 wRC+, a mark that, if sustained, would rank as the fifth-best offensive season since 1957. This performance would trail only Barry Bonds’ record-breaking years in 2001, 2002, and 2004, as well as Mickey Mantle’s 1957 season.

Comparing anyone to Mickey Mantle may seem sacrilegious in baseball circles, but in this instance, the comparison is apt. Through the Yankees’ first 113 games this season, Aaron Judge has reached base 236 times, averaging twice per game. This feat mirrors Mantle’s performance in 1957 when he reached base 270 times in the same number of games.

The parallels extend beyond this season. After 946 career games, Aaron Judge and Mantle display strikingly similar statistics at the plate, reinforcing the comparison.

Through 946 Games
	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Judge	298	675	652	0.286	0.403	0.6	1.003
Mantle	207	667	662	0.316	0.427	0.575	1.002

Yankees manager Aaron Boone highlighted the historic significance of Aaron Judge’s season, cautioning against taking it for granted. Boone noted that the slugger’s achievements have consistently invited comparisons to legendary Yankees like Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, and Joe DiMaggio. Remarkably, Aaron Judge’s 2024 season is shaping up to surpass even his stellar 2022 campaign.

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