NEW YORK — The Houston Astros kicked off the new year by landing Tatsuya Imai. The Yankees watched from the sidelines. Most fans saw it as another missed opportunity. But what if the front office saw something different?
Two names buried in the Yankees farm system might explain everything. Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange are knocking on the door. Both could factor into the 2026 rotation. And both might make the Imai gamble look unnecessary.
The Astros assume all the risk
Imai signed a three-year deal worth $54 million guaranteed. The contract can escalate to $63 million with incentives. He has opt-out clauses after each season.
The structure tells you everything about how the market viewed him. MLB Trade Rumors projected a six-year, $150 million deal. The final number came in at roughly a third of that guarantee.
Imai posted a sparkling 1.92 ERA with the Seibu Lions in 2025. He struck out 178 batters in 163.2 innings. His fastball touched 98 mph. Agent Scott Boras compared him to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
But no team offered the blockbuster contract he expected. That signals legitimate concerns about how his stuff translates to MLB competition.
Rodriguez emerges as a hidden gem
The Yankees acquired Elmer Rodriguez from the Boston Red Sox in December 2024 for catcher Carlos Narvaez. At the time, few noticed. Now the 22-year-old right-hander ranks as the organization’s No. 3 prospect.
Rodriguez dominated across three levels in 2025. He went 11-8 with a 2.58 ERA, logging 150 innings and striking out 176 batters. Opponents hit just .192 against him.
His fastball has gained velocity since joining the Yankees organization. It sat between 91-95 mph with Boston. Now it sits 93-96 mph and has touched 98. The development staff clearly unlocked something.
Rodriguez posted a 2.26 ERA at High-A Hudson Valley. He followed that with a 2.64 ERA at Double-A Somerset. The rapid progression suggests he could arrive in the Bronx sooner than his 2027 estimated debut.
Lagrange brings elite upside
Carlos Lagrange stands 6-foot-7 and weighs 248 pounds. He throws a fastball that sits 97-99 mph and has topped out at 102. The Yankees rank him as their No. 2 prospect.
The 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.53 ERA in 2025 with 168 strikeouts in 120 innings. Opponents managed only a .191 batting average against him.
His arsenal includes a mid-80s sweeping slider, an upper-80s cutter and a devastating changeup. Command has been an issue historically. He also missed time in 2023 with a back injury. But his improvements in 2025 suggest he is trending in the right direction.
Lagrange carries more risk than Rodriguez. He also carries significantly higher upside. That elite fastball could make him a frontline starter or a dominant late-inning weapon.
Yankees rotation needs faces
The Yankees will enter 2026 without three key starters. Gerrit Cole is targeting a May or June return from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodon expects to return in late April or May after elbow surgery. Clarke Schmidt might not pitch until the second half of the season.
Max Fried remains the only guaranteed healthy arm. Rookie sensation Cam Schlittler will make his first full season start. Will Warren and Luis Gil will shoulder significant workloads.
The bullpen also took hits. Devin Williams and Luke Weaver signed with the Mets. Mark Leiter Jr. left for the Athletics. The Yankees need arms from somewhere.
Rodriguez and Lagrange could fill those gaps. Their development timelines align with the team’s needs. Calling them up would cost nothing in prospect capital.
Patience might pay off
The Yankees can let the Astros assume all the risk with Imai. If he dominates, he will likely opt out seeking a bigger deal. Houston’s bloated payroll might prevent them from retaining him. The Yankees could swoop in for a proven commodity.
If Imai struggles, the Yankees avoided a costly mistake. They can continue developing their homegrown arms without paying $18 million annually for an unproven pitcher.
Imai struggled with walks every year except 2025. His strikeout numbers were good but never elite. The competition in Nippon Professional Baseball does not match MLB intensity.
The farm system delivers
Schlittler already proved the Yankees can produce rotation arms internally. He posted a 2.96 ERA across 73 innings as a rookie in 2025. His eight-inning, 12-strikeout gem against the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series announced his arrival.
Rodriguez and Lagrange could follow the same path. Their age (both 22), their stuff and their minor league track records suggest they are ready for bigger challenges.
The Yankees did not pass on Imai because they lacked resources. They passed because they trust what is coming through the pipeline. That bet on their own system might prove wiser than any free agent splurge.
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