Yankees primed for big bounce-back as per ZiPS’ analytical gaze

The Yankees' top sluggers Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Sara Molnick
Tuesday January 23, 2024

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The excitement in the Bronx extends beyond the stadium lights – it’s the unveiling of ZiPS projections for the 2024 Yankees, and they forecast an exhilarating journey. Dan Szymborski’s statistical predictions depict a season driven by an overhauled offense, a revitalized Rodon, and the magnetic presence of Juan Soto.


The offensive power

Yankees acquired Juan Soto via trade on Dec 5, 2023.
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Soto’s Impact: The newest sensation in baseball is poised to illuminate Yankee Stadium. According to ZiPS, Soto is expected to boast an impressive .275/.421/.516 slash line, featuring 33 home runs and a league-leading 131 walks. Move aside, Judge; there’s a new king of base-on-balls in town.

Aaron Judge, player of the New York Yankees

Judge’s Dominance: The reigning AL MVP remains a force to be reckoned with. Aaron Judge is projected to deliver 40 homers, maintaining his slugging prowess with a .575 slugging percentage and a .271/.384/.575 triple slash. The Bronx Bombers won’t lack for fireworks.

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Stanton’s Resurgence Quest: Giancarlo Stanton‘s return to form hinges on health and production. ZiPS envisions 455 plate appearances and 25 homers, albeit with a slightly lower batting average (.229) than the Yankees faithful might desire. Can Stanton rediscover his power and transform the lineup into a true powerhouse?

Anthony Volpe runs after hitting a home run at Yankee Stadium in August 2023.

Volpe’s Rise: The future of the infield has arrived in Anthony Volpe. His sophomore season is anticipated to yield .224/.302/.404 with 19 homers and 31 doubles. The youthful spark from his bat could invigorate the middle infield.

Yankees rotation

Revamped Rotation: ZiPS treads cautiously on innings but holds optimism for results. After a challenging debut season, Carlos Rodon is projected for a 3.86 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 114 innings. Marcus Stroman, the recent two-year addition, is expected to post a 4.04 ERA and 110 strikeouts over 138 innings. Can they anchor a formidable rotation despite limitations on innings?

Corey Sipkin

Cole’s Consistency: The Cy Young holder is determined to maintain his dominance. ZiPS anticipates Gerrit Cole to remain formidable with a 3.53 ERA and 201 strikeouts in 186 innings. Though a slight dip from his 2023 performance, Cole continues to be a stalwart in the rotation.

The relief crops

Bullpen Dynamics: Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga are set to continue their impact in the bullpen. Holmes is projected for a 3.84 ERA over 61 innings, while Loaisiga is slated for a 3.68 ERA over 51 innings. These arms will be pivotal in neutralizing late-inning threats.

While ZiPS projections offer only a glimpse into the future, they paint an enticing picture of a Yankees team ready to ascend. With Soto’s arrival, Rodon’s resurgence, and Judge’s mighty swings, the Bronx could be buzzing with excitement throughout the season. Whether the projections materialize or not, one thing is certain: the 2024 Yankees are poised to be a formidable force.

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