The New York Yankees’ worst fears have become reality: Gerrit Cole, their prized ace, faces Tommy John surgery, effectively sidelining him for the entirety of the 2025 season. This setback plunges the Yankees into a deep pitching crisis, prompting immediate questions about the strength and depth of their starting rotation.
Already burdened by a towering payroll of around $302 million, the Yankees face a tricky balancing act. With limited prospects to trade and payroll constraints, pursuing a high-profile replacement might be unrealistic. ESPN’s insider Buster Olney, however, highlights a financial silver lining: the Yankees insured Cole’s hefty $36 million salary, potentially recouping up to 75%, translating to around $27 million. This payout opens a window to explore strategic, cost-effective additions in the free-agent market.
Cole is owed $36 million for 2025, so the Yankees could be in line for a $27 million insurance recoup. After luxury tax cut, the Yankees have $13.5 million to spend. That would fit nicely with the multi-year contract projection for any of the following free agents.
#1. Kyle Gibson: Veteran stability or risky gamble?
Age: 37 years
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: $13.4 million
2024 stats: 8-8 record over 30 starts, a 4.24 ERA across 169.2 innings, striking out 151 batters and posting a WHIP of 1.35.
Why the Yankees should sign:
At 37 years old, Kyle Gibson remains an intriguing option. Last year, pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals, he finished with an 8-8 record and a solid 4.24 ERA over 169.2 innings, striking out 151 batters. Gibson’s consistency and ability to pitch deep into games make him appealing, especially for a Yankees rotation desperately needing stability.
His versatile pitch selection—including a sinker, cutter, slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, and changeup—could serve him well in the tough AL East. His leadership could also benefit younger pitchers, providing invaluable mentorship.
Why the Yankees should not sign:
Gibson’s age raises concerns about potential declines in stamina and effectiveness. With a career ERA of 4.52, inconsistency has plagued him, potentially making him vulnerable in a division known for powerhouse offenses. At an estimated $13.4 million, the Yankees must consider whether Gibson’s reliability outweighs the financial and competitive risks.
#2: Patrick Corbin: A left-handed reclamation project?
Age: 35
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: $6.4 million
2024 stats: Corbin struggled on the mound, with a 6-13 record, a 5.32 ERA in 174.2 innings, 25 HRs, 139 strike outs, and 1.5 WHIP.
Why the Yankees should sign:
At 35, Corbin enters free agency coming off a difficult season with the Washington Nationals, posting a disappointing 6-13 record with a 5.32 ERA. Despite recent struggles, his durability—making at least 30 starts consistently—could attract the Yankees. A former two-time All-Star and key figure in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series run, Corbin’s experience in pressure situations could serve the Yankees well, especially as a left-handed pitching option against tough AL East hitters.
Why the Yankees should not sign:
Corbin’s performance has significantly declined over recent years, reflected in his cumulative 5.71 ERA from 2021 to 2024. With a projected salary around $6.4 million, he could be signed on a short-term, incentive-based contract, minimizing financial exposure but carrying a significant performance risk.
#3. Lance Lynn: Resilient veteran or health risk?
Age: 37
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: $7.6 million.
2024 Stats: A 7-4 record with a 3.84 ERA, 44 walks, and 109 strikeouts over 117 1/3 innings in 23 starts.
Why the Yankees should sign:
Lynn, 37, showcased resilience with the Cardinals in 2024, compiling a 7-4 record and a commendable 3.84 ERA. Despite knee inflammation ending his season prematurely, his home record (6-0) highlights an ability to thrive under pressure. Lynn’s proven durability over a 13-season MLB career could add essential depth and reliability to the Yankees’ rotation.
Why the Yankees should not sign:
While Lance Lynn offers impressive capabilities, legitimate questions surround his recent health struggles and advancing age. Last September, the Cardinals placed the 37-year-old right-hander on the 15-day injured list with knee inflammation, cutting short his 2024 campaign. This development raises red flags about his durability and capacity to remain healthy throughout an entire season.
Financial considerations further complicate matters. Lynn commands a deal of approximately $7.6 million– a hefty price tag for a pitcher carrying notable injury risk. The Yankees must carefully evaluate whether this substantial investment justifies the potential for limited availability. Experience certainly counts in Lynn’s favor, but the organization might be better served by targeting younger, more resilient starting options that provide greater rotation stability over time. Committing significant resources to an aging veteran with documented health concerns could potentially undermine the Yankees’ broader roster construction strategy.
#4. Zach Davies: An under-the-radar option
Age: 32
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: Nearly $5 million
2024 Stats: He didn’t pitch in the Majors last year, but he’s a lifetime 60-58 with a 4.36 ERA and 785 strikeouts.
Why the Yankees should sign:
Davies, at 32, didn’t pitch in the majors last season but maintains a career 4.36 ERA. Known for control and finesse rather than velocity, Davies offers a contrasting style that might diversify the Yankees’ rotation. His experience across multiple teams could help him quickly adapt to a challenging environment like New York.
Why the Yankees should not sign:
However, Davies’ career inconsistency and modest lifetime record (60-58) raise concerns. His projected salary of roughly $5 million makes him an affordable, albeit risky, gamble for a team needing immediate and reliable pitching help.
#5. Spencer Turnbull: High-upside, high-risk pitcher
Age: 32
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: Approximately $4.4 million
2024 Stats: In the 2024 season with the Philadelphia Phillies, Turnbull appeared in 17 games, starting 7 of them and pitched 54.1 innings with a 2.65 ERA, WHIP of 1.05, and 58 strikeouts.
Why the Yankees should sign:
Spencer Turnbull emerged as a surprising bright spot in Philadelphia’s rotation during 2024, demonstrating qualities that make him an intriguing target for pitching-hungry teams. His stellar 2.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 54.1 innings reveal a pitcher who effectively neutralizes opposing batters and maintains consistent control. These impressive statistics point to a reliable arm capable of delivering quality outings when called upon.
From a financial perspective, Turnbull represents remarkable value in today’s pitching market. With projections placing his annual salary around $4.4 million, he offers substantial upside without requiring the financial commitment typically associated with established starters. For the Yankees, acquiring a pitcher with Turnbull’s demonstrated effectiveness could strengthen rotation depth and provide valuable flexibility in managing pitcher workloads throughout the grueling 162-game schedule.
Why the Yankees shouldn’t sign:
Durability is a genuine concern. Injuries limited his starts significantly, and he spent substantial time on the injured list due to a lat strain. These factors could deter the Yankees from relying on Turnbull as a consistent rotation option.
#6. Domingo German: Familiar face but troubling history
Age: 32
Spotrac.com projected salary for the 2025 season: $5 million to $8 million
2024 Stats: In the 2024 season, German pitched for both the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league affiliates. He made 11 starts between the Single-A Bradenton Marauders and Triple-A Indianapolis Indians, recording a 4–4 win-loss record with a 5.13 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 54⅓ innings. Upon his promotion to the Pirates, German appeared in 7 games (2 starts, 0-1), posting a 7.84 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 20⅔ innings.
Why the Yankees should sign:
Domingo German brings undeniable Yankees pedigree to the table. His previous tenure in pinstripes provides him with invaluable insight into the distinctive pressures and sky-high expectations that accompany every pitch thrown at Yankee Stadium. This established familiarity could potentially allow for a seamless reintegration and immediate impact within either the starting rotation or bullpen.
German’s career contains moments of undisputed brilliance, most notably his perfect game against the Oakland Athletics on June 28, 2023 – a performance that demonstrated his capability to deliver elite results at the major league level. At 32, he maintains the necessary arm talent and repertoire that, under appropriate coaching and development, could be effectively maximized for consistent production.
From a financial standpoint, German likely represents an economical addition to the pitching staff. This affordability would enable the Yankees to strengthen their pitching depth while preserving financial flexibility for additional roster improvements throughout the season.
Why the Yankees should not sign:
German’s recent performance, however, raises serious concerns for any potential suitor. His 2024 campaign with Pittsburgh revealed troubling deficiencies, evidenced by an alarming 7.84 ERA. These statistics point to fundamental issues with command and an inability to consistently retire major league hitters – critical shortcomings for a pitcher seeking to contribute meaningfully at the highest level.
Beyond his on-field regression, German’s personal conduct history presents equally significant obstacles. His 2019 domestic violence incident resulted in an 81-game suspension under MLB’s personal conduct policy – a serious infraction that cannot be dismissed. Compounding these concerns, a 2023 alcohol-related clubhouse altercation led to his placement on the restricted list, further demonstrating problematic behavioral patterns.
These recurring off-field issues threaten both team chemistry and organizational reputation. For the Yankees, who consistently emphasize character and professionalism while operating under intense media scrutiny, German’s documented history of misconduct likely represents an excessive liability that outweighs his potential contributions on the mound, regardless of his familiarity with the organization.
Ultimately, the Yankees’ next move will significantly influence their chances of postseason success in 2025. The decision ahead—balancing risk, reward, cost, and chemistry—may define their season amid the adversity following Gerrit Cole’s injury.
What do you think? Leave your comment below.
I believe you’re correct on the insurance proceeds. I understand this will equal 75% of Cole’s salary. At $36M, this would be $27M as you mention.
But you mention a corresponding savings of $13.5M on his AAV. I understood that this remains unchanged, even with the distribution of insurance proceeds. If so, this would effectively prevent the Yankees from making any of the moves you mention. Not sure which of us is correct on this point, but I’ve read several comments about it, and each one has said the payout of insurance proceeds doesn’t change the AAV for luxury tax purposes.
Possibly you can provide more detail on this?