Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young pursuit: Numbers don’t lie

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Gerrit Cole‘s dominance on the mound this season has made him the clear frontrunner for the prestigious Cy Young Award. His outstanding performance has garnered support not only from writers but also from passionate Yankees fans, all rallying behind his bid for this coveted trophy. Not only does the public support him, but the numbers do as well.

Jon Heyman of the NY Post succinctly captured the sentiment, stating, “[Gerrit] Cole, with the richest pitching contract ever, has proven that he may be underpaid based on his outstanding performance this season. He’s our top pick for the AL Cy Young.”

A debate among Yankees fans and Forbes’ surprising take

Yet, within the Yankees fan base, the use of analytics has sparked debate due to concerns about over-reliance on potentially flawed practices within the organization. Nevertheless, the consensus is that in this particular instance, the analysis has gone to extremes.

Forbes, in particular, stirred the pot regarding the AL Cy Young “race.” However, the race has essentially ended; Gerrit Cole is the undisputed frontrunner. Even ESPN’s Cy Young predictor leaves no room for doubt, identifying Cole as the best starter in the AL by a significant margin.

Surprisingly, a Forbes writer argued for an unlikely candidate: Twins starter Pablo Lopez. While Lopez has had a commendable season with a 3.61 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 121 ERA+, and 1.15 WHIP, his performance does not compare to Gerrit Cole’s remarkable statistics – a 2.75 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 159 ERA+, and 1.02 WHIP. Cole not only outperforms Lopez in most major categories but also boasts 23 quality starts compared to Lopez’s 20, with the only exception being strikeouts.

Delving into advanced metrics with Tony Blengino

Tony Blengino, writing for Forbes, delved into the advanced statistics, explaining that Lopez’s raw stats are affected by bad luck. However, just as in baseball, where unlucky bounces can impact a game’s outcome, context is crucial. It’s not enough to solely rely on metrics; the broader context must be considered. For instance, Gerrit Cole often received inadequate run support, leading to seven losses in games where he allowed only eight earned runs.

In essence, Gerrit Cole’s season stands as objectively superior. Introducing additional metrics that are not typically considered in evaluating a pitcher’s performance does not alter this fact. While recognizing Lopez’s misfortune can be helpful for the Twins in future planning, it does not place him ahead of Cole in the Cy Young race.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that even advanced metrics once favored Gerrit Cole, as seen in his 2019 season with the Astros, where he led the league in several categories but narrowly missed out on the Cy Young to teammate Justin Verlander.

As we approach the culmination of this season filled with exceptional performances, it’s evident that the accolades will go to those who truly deserve them. Gerrit Cole’s exceptional year with the Yankees firmly places him as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young. It would not be surprising to witness him finally clinch this prestigious honor.

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