Gerrit Cole opts out, but Yankees have a way to stop his exit

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Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has opted out of his contract, casting uncertainty over his future with the team. The decision, announced Saturday, means the ace pitcher will forgo the remaining $144 million over the next four years of his deal, positioning the Yankees to make a pivotal choice regarding their star pitcher.

The team can retain Cole by adding a fifth year worth $36 million, extending his contract through 2029. This move would bring the total commitment to $180 million over five years, preserving his annual salary at $36 million. If the Yankees pursue this extension, Cole’s full contract value would rise to $360 million over ten years, exceeding the $325 million deal Yoshinobu Yamamoto recently signed with the Dodgers.

The Yankees have until Sunday evening to notify Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, of their decision.

Many industry observers expect the Yankees to opt for the extension to keep their rotation stable, especially amid speculation about outfielder Juan Soto potentially leaving in free agency.

How can the Yankees stop Gerrit Cole from leaving?

Cole’s opt-out comes four years after his record-setting nine-year, $324 million contract with New York in 2019. The timing adds complexity, given his recent performances. Although he secured the AL Cy Young Award in 2023, Cole’s 2024 season was marred by elbow issues. His last outing in Game 5 of the World Series against the Dodgers was particularly difficult, marked by a defensive misstep that contributed to several unearned runs in a decisive fifth inning.

If Gerrit Cole enters free agency, he is expected to be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market. However, many experts believe it is unlikely he will leave the Yankees, despite recent health issues that could influence the team’s decision. Cole’s 2024 season was delayed until mid-June due to elbow problems, including nerve irritation and swelling, although he avoided surgery.

Upon his return, Cole posted a solid 3.41 ERA over 17 starts in the regular season and showcased an even stronger postseason performance with a 2.41 ERA. Since joining the Yankees, Cole has been a pivotal member of the rotation, ranking among the top pitchers in the league. From 2020 onward, he has placed 12th in innings pitched and 13th in ERA at 3.12 among starters. According to FanGraphs, he has been the sixth most valuable pitcher during this period.

Cole’s accolades in New York include three All-Star selections and winning the 2023 American League Cy Young Award. He has also been a vital leader in the clubhouse.

Pros and cons of retaining the ace

However, as teams consider large contracts, future potential often outweighs past success. The proposed five-year, $180 million extension would cover Cole’s seasons from age 34 to 38, sparking questions about his long-term durability. His recent elbow issues add to these concerns, and data indicates a slight decline in his fastball velocity, dropping from an average of 97.8 mph in 2022 to 95.9 mph in 2024.

Some analysts suggest that letting the ace pitcher walk could be a beneficial move for the Yankees’ long-term strategy, though this stance remains divisive among baseball experts.

Opting not to extend Gerrit Cole could offer the Yankees much-needed financial flexibility to target younger elite pitchers this offseason. Analysts note that committing to an additional five years for Cole, who is 34 and dealt with elbow inflammation that delayed his 2024 debut, poses a significant risk. The funds could instead bolster efforts to re-sign Juan Soto and pursue a standout arm like Corbin Burnes.

Though Cole displayed postseason resilience, his usage reflected a contemporary pitching strategy rather than the workhorse role of an ace. Despite strong outings in World Series Games 1 and 5, his prior elbow troubles ruled out a three-start schedule in the series. Health concerns also re-emerged in late July when general fatigue led to him skipping a rotation turn.

Even with decreased velocity, Cole remained effective and showed flashes of power, such as a season-high 99.4 mph fastball to strike out Gavin Lux in a critical World Series bases-loaded scenario.

Cole’s cerebral approach and diverse five-pitch repertoire have been essential to offset declining performance indicators, including a drop in his whiff rate from 33.9% to 24.8% over the past three seasons.

If the Yankees decide against a five-year, $180 million extension, they could look to younger ace alternatives on the market. Options include Corbin Burnes (four years younger), Max Fried (three years younger), and Blake Snell (two years younger), each with significant upside.

While many industry experts expect the Yankees to extend Cole, his 2024 performance and health profile have introduced new uncertainties into the equation.

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